Who is attacking whom?

[The-Shoveler]

“During the RTC sales in the 89/90 timeframe people were buying lots of condos at the beach for $10k each with cash.
People were buying homes in Florida for a dollar. ”

Dude Really ??

I want a few of each if that occurs again thanks, can’t wait !!

As for stocks, I think I will wait it out this time, Both Europe and the attack aforementioned are a when not if thing IMO, Myself, I would not want to be holding overnight when that occurs.

[Coronita]

[quote=markmax33][quote=sdrealtor]My example makes all the sense in the world. There is some guy on this board crying because he is in deep shit. Every transaction is different and skill levels of agents are different. you seem to think that its just a few papers and away we go which isnt reality. Take the case of the unpermitted issue guy. Most agents wouldnt know what to do with that and honestly I dont know that i would have either (though anytime I see additions I make sure my client goes to city hall to check permits). The point is there are agents who would have known how to deal with that properly and having the right one would have made all the difference in the world. You can automate trades of stock because a share of GE is a share of GE. Houses are unique and automating everything would be cost prohibitive. Could it be done? Possibly but doing so would be more expensive than the return and who do you think is capable of doing that? It would have to be your GOV. Not for profit entity could make that work profitably.[/quote]

You could have easily prevented it for that guy with software and the right business plan. The software would pull all permits to a guy walking around in the field verifying that stuff on a full time basis. Problem solved. Like I said, the hurdles won’t be around for long. There’s lots of money at stake, somebody will figure it out.

Groupon figured it out on a local level, somebody will solve RE on a local level and get all the documents accessible.[/quote]

Groupon is deep and red. It will end up like webvan.

The only company i see viable commanding huge valuation for the long term is facebook.

Dude, you’re like reliving the .dot.com era…You were probably too young to catch any of that first two waves of action, but like I said, been there done that.

And i can tell you having lived in L.A., San Diego, Bay Area…If the entire mobile commerce, social media, high flyer internet company is where you want to be, or where you want to get funding…You are living in the wrong part of California.

San Diego is dominated by wireless tech, biotech, and to a lesser extent small pockets mobile apps shops…

If you want to do anything related to the interet/social media/etc… Bay Area….

If you want to do anything related to IT/media… L.A.

You’re in the wrong part of town…

Take it from a veteran, that’s been through 1 small telecom in 1996 (then little qualcomm), 1 IPO of a wireless telco eventually bought by an Israeli company, 1 startup/confounder comparison shopping engine (which unfortunately mySimon beat us to it), 1 startup at a B2B company that was bought out by Irish company, 1 IPO of another B2B/EAI company that IPOed at $325/share and subsequently cratered to $150 before being bought out, 1 startup/quad-co-founder of a cloud business analytics company (didn’t go anywhere since Salesforce got in our way)… 1 stint at a security software firm (well it was bought about by the larger one), two terms at a online tax softwear company here (boring as hell, but paid really well since I was an architect), 1 bad experience at *cough* Yahoo (well, Yahoo bought the company, what a disaster). And now part full time gig at wireless company and part time self gigs as mobile apps corp…

Trust me, you’re in the wrong part of town if you want to do anything significant online.

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=markmax33][quote=sdrealtor][quote=sdrealtor]Ummmmm…ziprealty is on life support in case you didnt know. Redfin while doing better is an extremely small niche player.[/quote]

Hmmmm…..no response[/quote]

I really don’t have their financial statements so I can’t verify it. I know all my friends under 30 use it to look stuff up. That’s enough for me to know the inevitable is coming.[/quote]

Lots of people used pets.com and webvan also. Traffic doesnt always mean a viable business but you know that dont you? Yahoooooooo!!!!!!![/quote]

When I use to live in the bay area. My favorite story as a customer was buying my Audi in Jan/2000 from carorder.com

They’re business model: grab as many customers as you can, because that’s what VC’s like.

So they subsidized all car purchases.

I bought a $35k car without haggling for $7k.. They subsidized the car purchase by sending the dealer a $7k check and all I had to do was place the order through them. I took delivery at the dealership (Rector Motorcars) and just paid the difference. Told my buddy about it, and we bought 5 additional cars (Infiniti) $7k subsidized…We sold the remaining 4 used and pocketed the difference. Again, all because carorder wanted a large customer list. I wish I could have gotten those subsidies last year off of both the x5 and the 550….
Needless to say, we know what happened to carorder.

There use to be an old saying back in the bay area.
The bigger the red number, the more glorious it is! I kid you not. Those were the days.

[SK in CV]

[quote=markmax33]I want to reduce transactions costs to a fraction of a percent like in other industries that have high value transactions. [/quote]

Other than financial instruments and commodities, what industry has high value transactions with transaction costs that are a fraction of a percent?

[The-Shoveler]

Well these guys are getting ready for something

Blackstone’s new real estate fund passes $6 billion

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/blackstones-real-estate-fund-passes-011947814.html

[Arraya]

Discussions about Iran are relevant to economic forecasting. An attack on Iran would send oil to the fucking moon. And the price of oil is the achilles heel to global industrial capitalism. If anything could fully implode the debt bomb it would be an sustained oil spike. I think like 300 per barrel would take like 20% of the global GDP. What would $9 per gallon gas do to RE? Above $120 we go into recession.

I can only imagine the discussions going on behind the scenes about attacking Iran. IMO, Iran is not a physical threat to anybody. They are however a threat in other ways.

[sdrealtor]

MM
Flu covered most of it but most of the documents you want on a local level are far from online. You can’t integrate what doesn’t exist. Think about BG toiling away at her teletype machine trying to hanging onto her precious paralegal position with every last breathe of her being. I do admire your starry
eyed changed the world optimism but thing just don’t work that way. We have heard all the “new economy” nonsense and know the reality is change happens slowly and incrementally not radically. The things you dream of won’t happen in your lifetime.

First problem is you are an engineer and believe other people think like you. Sorry most people make bad emotional decisions and aren’t anything like you. You won’t take their losses but those nitwits set the market. As smart as you can be, some nitwit can come along and overpay raing the comps and your price of admission. You can automate everything you want but those nitwits will still be there. Next problem is all it takesisone emotional spouse to screw up your or any buyers life.

Was just out with a good friend last nite. He just got a big time job in OC and is reloing from Boston. His wife is from Boston and she would have to leave her family. She knows he can’t not take the job but she has her list of what she HAS to have. He just sold the Boston abode For 800kand has 500k in his pocket. He’s a smart guy and I told him to rent, learn the lay of the land, figure out where he really wants to live. I told him he could rent a house on any street in SoCal which is pretty much true. I told him buying now would likely cost him 50 to 100k vis a vis waiting a year to figure it all out. He nodded and agreed. Then his response……”dude it’s complex, you don’t understand, gotta buy a house now”. My response …..”dude i completely understand, sorry…make the best of it”

Here my best story. I was two weeks away from a 8 figure payoff from a company I never worked for. One of my good friends was the founder of what was going to be Goldman Sachs biggest IPOD of fthe Internet era. He gifted me as many shares as most of the VP’s had. I always laughed and never believed I would see a cent from it as I had worked with him on a couple projects before. We had a friggin helicopter on order to transport us from his house on Coronado to padres games. Dude it was gonna be epic!

Some day you will grow up and will have stories like we do. The world will still be the world. There will still be a Fed……there won’t be anyone named Paul in the White House but it will all be ok. Life as we know it won’t have ended and there will still be realtors. Sorry dude……

Edit-sorry for all the typos but it’s an iPad.

[briansd1]

[quote=Arraya]Discussions about Iran are relevant to economic forecasting. An attack on Iran would send oil to the fucking moon. And the price of oil is the achilles heel to global industrial capitalism. If anything could fully implode the debt bomb it would be an sustained oil spike. I think like 300 per barrel would take like 20% of the global GDP. What would $9 per gallon gas do to RE? Above $120 we go into recession.

I can only imagine the discussions going on behind the scenes about attacking Iran. IMO, Iran is not a physical threat to anybody. They are however a threat in other ways.[/quote]

That’s why there’s not a whole lot that we can do about Iran.

I feel that the US is doing the bidding of Israel rather than looking out for our own interests and trying to better our lives and the lives of the people of Iran through dialogue and commerce.

[markmax33]

[quote=flu]Lots of people used pets.com and webvan also. Traffic doesnt always mean a viable business but you know that dont you? Yahoooooooo!!!!!!!

When I use to live in the bay area. My favorite story as a customer was buying my Audi in Jan/2000 from carorder.com

They’re business model: grab as many customers as you can, because that’s what VC’s like.

So they subsidized all car purchases.

I bought a $35k car without haggling for $7k.. They subsidized the car purchase by sending the dealer a $7k check and all I had to do was place the order through them. I took delivery at the dealership (Rector Motorcars) and just paid the difference. Told my buddy about it, and we bought 5 additional cars (Infiniti) $7k subsidized…We sold the remaining 4 used and pocketed the difference. Again, all because carorder wanted a large customer list. I wish I could have gotten those subsidies last year off of both the x5 and the 550….
Needless to say, we know what happened to carorder.

There use to be an old saying back in the bay area.
The bigger the red number, the more glorious it is! I kid you not. Those were the days.[/quote]

This analogy is completely irrational. Squeezing a few fractions of a percent from a transaction is not subsidizing 75% of it. There is actually value added with the website that can and will lower transaction cost, customer aquistion, etc. It is a solid business model.

[markmax33]

[quote=sdrealtor]MM
Flu covered most of it but most of the documents you want on a local level are far from online. You can’t integrate what doesn’t exist. Think about BG toiling away at her teletype machine trying to hanging onto her precious paralegal position with every last breathe of her being. I do admire your starry eyed changed the world optimism but thing just don’t work that way. We have heard all the “new economy” nonsense and know the reality is change happens slowly and incrementally not radically. The things you dream of won’t happen in your lifetime.
[/quote]
You don’t have to automate the actual retrevial process to find efficencies. You can automate the request for document process on a massive scale and find efficiencies until the local departments digitize everything. I suspect the local offices will feel a squeeze during this downturn and realize they can save a ton of money by digitizing things. It will happen sooner than later.

Your analogies to the other failed websites show your age more than anything. If you knew about the tech bubble you would know that those website have all failed and venture capital wouldn’t be flowing towards sites like Zip and Redfin unless they had a solid business plan.

[quote=sdrealtor]
First problem is you are an engineer and believe other people think like you. Sorry most people make bad emotional decisions and aren’t anything like you. You won’t take their losses but those nitwits set the market. As smart as you can be, some nitwit can come along and overpay raing the comps and your price of admission. You can automate everything you want but those nitwits will still be there. Next problem is all it takesisone emotional spouse to screw up your or any buyers life.
[/quote]
This is exactly the problem with an illiquid market. It takes so long to react to market changes. As you automate people get more real time information and this stuff all clears up. There are nitwits in any market so your analogy really makes no sense in relation to this topic.

[quote=sdrealtor]
Was just out with a good friend last nite. He just got a big time job in OC and is reloing from Boston. His wife is from Boston and she would have to leave her family. She knows he can’t not take the job but she has her list of what she HAS to have. He just sold the Boston abode For 800kand has 500k in his pocket. He’s a smart guy and I told him to rent, learn the lay of the land, figure out where he really wants to live. I told him he could rent a house on any street in SoCal which is pretty much true. I told him buying now would likely cost him 50 to 100k vis a vis waiting a year to figure it all out. He nodded and agreed. Then his response……”dude it’s complex, you don’t understand, gotta buy a house now”. My response …..”dude i completely understand, sorry…make the best of it”
[/quote]

There’s emotional buyers in every market and poeple forced to buy at a bad time. I’m not sure how this line or reasoning is applicable to automation.

[quote=sdrealtor]
Here my best story. I was two weeks away from a 8 figure payoff from a company I never worked for. One of my good friends was the founder of what was going to be Goldman Sachs biggest IPOD of fthe Internet era. He gifted me as many shares as most of the VP’s had. I always laughed and never believed I would see a cent from it as I had worked with him on a couple projects before. We had a friggin helicopter on order to transport us from his house on Coronado to padres games. Dude it was gonna be epic!
[/quote]

??

[quote=sdrealtor]
Some day you will grow up and will have stories like we do. The world will still be the world. There will still be a Fed……there won’t be anyone named Paul in the White House but it will all be ok. Life as we know it won’t have ended and there will still be realtors. Sorry dude……

Edit-sorry for all the typos but it’s an iPad.[/quote]

This is where you are wrong. The Consitutional/Libertarian ideas are here to stay. As the general public gets older, fewer of the NEOCONs make it out to vote and more young people without jobs start trying to figure how the system failed them. We hit 20% now, Rand Paul is going to be around another 20 years and Gary Johnson is here too. Don’t be fooled that just because Ron leaves or doesn’t get elected that this is over.

The Fed will fail. All central banks fail. It will happen in my lifetime. Look at Rich’s article. He’s basically saying we are freakin screwed. Rich even backs Jim Grant, a guy Ron Paul would put in charge of monetary policy. From Rich’s article, “I will once again invoke the inestimable Jim Grant, who wrote the following on this topic”

http://www.pcasd.com/short_term_gain_long_term_pain_from_the_biggest_stimulus_ever

I can’t put words in Rich’s mouth but if we don’t get this mess under control we will collapse the GOV and the currency.

[sdrealtor]

MM you speak like you are an expert in all things VC? Have you ever been in meetings or pitches on Sand Hill Road? I have and you don’t know jack. I never said you would go away. I said you wouldn’t change the world in the way or time frame you think. Shit happens…..you will see……and there will still be realtors…….sorry dude

[sdrealtor]

By the way are those depts that are going to streamline everything the same ones paying fireman who havent responded to fires in ten years and get double OT to sleep.

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor]By the way are those depts that are going to streamline everything the same ones paying fireman who havent responded to fires in ten years and get double OT to sleep.[/quote]

No, they are the same ones that added a new automated system at UCSD medical center so that they could cut down the number of administrative people to handle appointments/schedules/etc, and now it takes 2+hrs to schedule a pre-opt appointment that should take 15-20minues.

[Coronita]

[quote=markmax33][quote=flu]Lots of people used pets.com and webvan also. Traffic doesnt always mean a viable business but you know that dont you? Yahoooooooo!!!!!!!

When I use to live in the bay area. My favorite story as a customer was buying my Audi in Jan/2000 from carorder.com

They’re business model: grab as many customers as you can, because that’s what VC’s like.

So they subsidized all car purchases.

I bought a $35k car without haggling for $7k.. They subsidized the car purchase by sending the dealer a $7k check and all I had to do was place the order through them. I took delivery at the dealership (Rector Motorcars) and just paid the difference. Told my buddy about it, and we bought 5 additional cars (Infiniti) $7k subsidized…We sold the remaining 4 used and pocketed the difference. Again, all because carorder wanted a large customer list. I wish I could have gotten those subsidies last year off of both the x5 and the 550….
Needless to say, we know what happened to carorder.

There use to be an old saying back in the bay area.
The bigger the red number, the more glorious it is! I kid you not. Those were the days.[/quote]

This analogy is completely irrational. Squeezing a few fractions of a percent from a transaction is not subsidizing 75% of it. There is actually value added with the website that can and will lower transaction cost, customer aquistion, etc. It is a solid business model.[/quote]

Slow there mark.

Carorder was subsidizing car purchases (unlike carsdirect, which was a referral/broker service) for just about everyone purchasing a car.It’s not a small percentage of the transaction dude. Because it wasn’t their transaction, it was still the dealers. The dealers held the cars, had the inventory…The only thing carorder was doing is referring customers from their website, and assisting the purchase buy cutting a check between the difference that they advertised on their website (which was ridiculously low and unprofitable for anyone) and what the dealer could sell themselves. Carorder was cutting dealers a check for $7k just for the privilege of putting me and everyone else down as a “customer”… So hence, why I said they were bleeding red from day 1.Someone forgot to inform carorder that unlike other types of businesses, buying a car isn’t exactly a repeat business in which you’re going online every week to buy something in which people’s eyeballs are going to be glued to the website…

It’s no different the pets.com…Shipping a 20lb+/$5 dog food fedex overnight wasn’t the most brilliant business model either, even in 2000 when shipping costs were not nearly as ridiculous as they are now…Webvan failed for similar reasons, as did eToys (which my relative underwrote the IPO).

I could also go on about all the B2B/EAI companies that was “hot” at the time too and all were eventually bled to death too. Vitria, CommerceOne, ATG, onDisplay, Iona, Ariba(ok, they are still around), Peregrine (accounting scndal), BEA (ok they were ok with WebLogic), SeeBeyond (bought by Sun).

….I just find it surprising that for someone like yourself who so fixated about financial responsibility and non-government interventation that you would think some of these new .com companies are actually worth these ridiculous valuations by themselves.

Zynga is not going anywhere. As is groupon. As is angie’s list. As is linkedin. Some of them are probably still within a lockout window which keeps the shares afloat…They might get a pop when facebook finally ipos, because of the frenzy buying and hype, but short of facebook, I don’t see any of the others surviving for the long haul. Zygna will eventually be acquired by another game company…That is, unless our government decides to intervene, and create an artificial low interest rate environment, stimulate ridiculous speculation in the equity markets, so that banks/underwriters and once again reinflate the IPO bubble. Now, they wouldn’t do that would they???? So it’s ironic….Mark…Most of these .com companies directly depend on the so called artificial government hand in order to survive. You seem to dig all this interesting valuation of a .com company, and yet so anti-government about intervention… What to do, what to do….

[sdrealtor]

I should have known that…lol

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