[The-Shoveler]

FLU does it again, Great !!

[The-Shoveler]

While I still keep my overall “yes things are getting better” bias,
Looking at the recent surge in car sales, it turns out a higher percent of them than usual were fleet sales,
(rental cars, police, gov agency’s etc…)

Maybe they are trying to get the momentum going.

[The-Shoveler]

Back in the day (6 or so thousand years ago), it was hard to find stuff that stayed shiny and was easy to mold into shapes.
On second thought now that I have the urge to toss my career and go operate a Sluice Box boat on the Bering Sea, it’s probably not a good sign.

[The-Shoveler]

I recommend digging holes in incredibly hard rocky ground with a pick and shovel.
Very satisfying especially when you finally get that really big rock out of the ground.
Plus points if your wife says Wow! When she sees the rock.

[The-Shoveler]

Well here is something for everyone maybe
A Stimulated economy (a lot of people getting 2000 dollar checks soon).
And finally maybe a wave of foreclosures (we will see I guess)
All brought via the settlement signed today,

[The-Shoveler]

The answer isn’t quite that simple. For one thing, the BDI can be very volatile – much more so than the economy overall. Previous massive drops in the index haven’t always resulted in a re-run of the Great Depression.
That’s because the BDI isn’t just about transport demand. It’s also about transport supply. Remember, the BDI measures the cost of hiring space on a ship. So if you double the number of ships, then demand for raw materials could remain static and perfectly healthy. But shipping rates, and therefore the BDI, would (in theory) fall in half.
And the fact is that right now, there are far too many ships in the world.
Prior to 2008, when the global economy seemed to be booming, dry bulk ship owners got rather over-excited. They convinced themselves that the good times would last for several more years. So – pretty much all at the same time – they placed lots of orders for ships.
Many of those vessels have now been completed and are becoming available for hire. Extra shipping space equivalent to 23% of the existing fleet is due to be delivered this year, according to Macquarie Research. That’s “too much capacity in the face of more modest growth of trade volumes”.
In other words, it’s no great surprise the BDI has fallen back. What’s more, says Credit Suisse, there’ll be no respite from the oversupply of dry bulk ships until next year at the very earliest. Even then, the existing fleet will still grow by 9% as new ships are delivered. That could still be tough for the market to absorb.

[The-Shoveler]

Glad you got out early.
win some…

[The-Shoveler]

Well This seems like it will have legs in getting things rolling and reducing foreclosures
Like it or hate it, it looks like a massive manipulation that is going to work.
Hold on folks were going for a ride.

And we have Numbers
Barely two weeks into a new government program that allows severely underwater borrowers with loans backed by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to refinance their loans to lower rates, the numbers are surging.
Applications to refinance jumped 9.4 percent last week, seasonally adjusted, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association. Record low interest rates on the thirty-year fixed, averaging 4.05 percent, are only adding fuel to the fire.
“There was a lot of pent up demand,” said Bank of America spokesman Terry Francisco of the recently revamped Home Affordable Refinance Program (HARP 2). The newest incarnation removes the cap on negative equity, so borrowers who owe more than 125 percent of their home’s current value can now qualify. These so-called severely underwater borrowers, however, must be current on their payments.
The new surge backed up the phone lines at Bank of America, with some borrowers reporting they heard a message suggesting they call back in six to nine months. Francisco confirms the lender has temporarily stopped taking applications for cash-out refinances because of the additional underwriting those loans require. Cash-out accounts for 10-15 percent of their mortgage business.
“We’re taking a lot of applications for HARP 2 and straight refi’s as well, so we needed to curb our demand in some way,” Francisco said.
Wells Fargo also reports an increase in refinancing right after the holidays, as well as an overall increase in 2011. “From January of last year through January of this year, Wells Fargo has seen its refinancing volume more than double,” says a spokesman, who adds that it’s too early to tell about the impact of HARP 2, as record low interest rates are a key factor in demand. Wells Fargo, however, has not suspended any of its lending.
The refinance share of mortgage activity is now 80.5 percent of total applications.
Applications for mortgages to purchase a home were flat last week and have been basically flat now for a month, which is not a promising sign for home sales. President Obama last week announced yet another government refinance program to help underwater borrowers who do not have Fannie or Freddie-backed loans. The plan could cost $5-10 billion and requires Congressional approval; some have called it dead on arrival.
Strong refinance activity means more money in consumers’ pockets and potentially more debt reduction, as some borrowers opt for fixed-rate amortizing loans as opposed to interest-only adjustable rate mortgages. Unfortunately, the flip side, which is lower applications to purchase a home, does not bode well for housing’s fledgling recover. “The latest weakness of mortgage applications for home purchase may suggest that the recent improvement in home sales is not built on solid foundations,” says Paul Diggle of Capital Economics

[The-Shoveler]

Typically people capitulate at exactly the wrong time (I think I read something about how we subconsciously self sabotage our future, interesting).

[The-Shoveler]

Well Rich T. bought, that must mean it’s over,

Just kidding,

[The-Shoveler]

Few thoughts,
I think FLU is correct
The iphone/Smartphone bubble has been and continues to be so anyone living about 30-40 minutes from QCOM, sorry I think you live in bubble land again (add ipad to that list as well).

Cars are somewhat High ticket items.
Just judging by the fact there were four or five car spots for the super bowl, I got to think things are getting at least somewhat better.

Anything to do with social media looks to be heating up.

And really the Gov’s involvement with the financing of mortgages I think is just getting warmed up as well.

One more thought

If we attack Iran, everything goes out the window.

[The-Shoveler]

In my little corner of TechLand it is “Game On” all of a sudden , I think flu is right about a new bubble forming.

And yea you need a poll.

[The-Shoveler]

[quote=flu][quote=Nor-LA-SD-GUY2]That’s not crazy I will show you crazy,

I just bought QID (also in IRA, it’s the only way to trade!!).

now that’s crazy, Somehow I know I am just going to get steam rolled on that one.[/quote]

Yeah, you’re pretty much screwed on that one, because I have that one and SDS too.. 🙂

I’ll tell you what, I’ll let you know when I’m out, and then you’ll be fine.

I don’t know why I’m gambling again in this stupid machine.

I guess I have a serious complex of “no enginerd gets left behind” syndrome.[/quote]

I “Stop loss”’ed out this morning,

Dang what was I thinking !!

A days wages shot to heck, oh well.

[The-Shoveler]

I guess there is no guarantee but assuming you can refi in a few years getting rid of the PMI is not a big hurdle I would think. Unless rates go up in which case just sticking with the loan an suffering the PMI will still look good most likely.

But being that the fed already owns about 6 times as much of our national debt as china does and it pays all the interest it gets back to the treasury every year, I think it will never matter one bit if china stops buying our debt. So I think they will be able to keep the interest rates exactly where they want indefinitely, but that’s just my opinion.

That does not mean they won’t want to raise them at some point, but at that point I think would require wage inflation.

[The-Shoveler]

Once we see stability I think we will see a return to 20+80 loans as well.
Getting the down payment together is a big obstacle to a lot of people,
PMI looks cheap if you don’t have the cash for a down payment.

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