[temeculaguy]

Carlsbadworker, I never thought of that but you have a point about the self fulfilling prophecy. However, it could be a combination of your theory and partially a gut feeling among the old schoolers that left because they got what they wanted and that they also now feel something is afoot. I’ve gotten private messages from some of them so they still read, the just avoid entering the fray.

Brian, back in the day we heard from so many people that said R/E will never go down nominally because history told us so, be we saw we had strayed from history for a variety of reasons, mostly free money.

I’m not convinced a great recession or depression will happen again in my lifetime but I do see we are overdue for at least a mild recession. trouble is that may be a few years away and in the meantime SD seems to be slipping a little based on Rich’s most recent data. So maybe we are entering a few years of flat at least for RE prices, which We will be technically down when inflation is factored. But another poster said it best, buy your primary when it makes sense for you.

Still, I’m advising my brood to rent for a year, but that’s mostly because when you choose a new town to live in, you really should especially since we might have just hot the peak in a way. To the poster that mentioned Harmony Grove, that’s where I think Scenario #1 should buy. Rent, not so much. Here’s why, only rental on zillow is 3250 for 1600 sq ft, or 200 a square to rent. But I see a 2000 sq ft for 600 to buy. so its 300 a sq to buy, that’s a buy in my book for 200k family income or a 180 with a 20% down. They are 23 and going to pull 170-180 combined, but have lots of earning increase potential. In a year or two maybe they will be ready for it. But for now, after spending 5-6 years in school, knocking out post grad while accustomed to living cheap. A 2500 a month rental near MM will satisfy them, be in the middle of their workplaces and give them time to save and get used to managing real money. It’s hard to go from making 10 or 20k part time to 8 times that. Becoming a grown up takes some getting used to. They just aren’t there yet, but it will happen.

[temeculaguy]

AN, I get it and I agree. I did the same thing for many years. But now I am curious if there aren’t some localized bubbles, or perhaps just bulges. And both you and FLU gave some great advice. It is appreciated.

Astrid, thanks for sharing, even you don’t care to win my respect because I’ve earned your scarlet letter you got some street cred from the other readers. I remember that case very well and I am sorry that your family suffered so much. It’s not a big town, seemed everyone knew someone directly or indirectly who was affected. I also used that case as in an argument when someone was telling me “non violent” criminals shouldn’t be incarcerated. They hurt a lot of people, their punishment still never repaired the damage.

Flyer has a point, if there is a recession and it seems like we may be due for one as far as the calendar goes certain areas fall in price more than others. I’m not sure the stars will align again the same way they did last time. I also see the prices at about 2006 levels, which was way overpriced in 2006 but in 2019 I’m not so sure. Just borrow no more than about 3X your gross household income and it won’t matter if your value goes up or down if you can ride it out. The trouble with just starting out is that is difficult to time the market because if prices tank, then jobs, income and credit will too. Young couples need all three. A nice starter SFR in Tem/Mur can be had for 500k, some starters for less. In Menifee closer to 400k. If your household income is 150k gross, spending 400-500k isn’t nuts. You aren’t going to get a giant house or one on land or in the best neighborhood but when you are starting out it works and in a decade you move up when your income and equity move up. That has backfired on me in the past but waiting it out always solved the problem (with 06 as the exception).

Or use a rent valuation, if the cost of your rent is let’s say 2500 for an SFR, if you can buy it for 375 (150x) then do it, you are just fixing your rent. I think rents in my hood are about 3k and buying is like 600k so to me that’s too much, should be closer to 500 to buy. So I personally think it’s too high right now but not like it was in 06, it’s no double the true value. Also the tax cut hurt homeowners, especially in CA. I think the market may feel it moving forward and I think SALT will be reinstated in the future. My state income tax is over 10k, so my property taxes are essentially non deductible. If I didn’t already own I’d be slightly more hesitant to do so. I’m also less inclined to move up because moving makes my property taxes go up and the increase will not be deductible. Prices can be affected by a number of factors, tax deduction used to be a big factor for many. I’m not so sure that’s the case to the extent that it once was.

[temeculaguy]

Astrid, what was your ID before you changed it? Piggington has a unique feature called “track.” It shows you’ve been a member for 4 years and only posted on two threads. Not enough to perform an analysis on the history of piggington or of my politics unless you changed your identity and then the logical question is why did you change it?

But you blew flyer’s mind, what a feat. Blow ZK’s mind who may agree with you do but who is an intellectual but not as predictable as brian and you won’t be considered a troll if you can, until then you are.

If you want to look back I predicted Trump would win as the crowded field began but he wasn’t my pick. But that matters not as you see red and what you don’t like and that makes you predictable and the sheeple. I watch them and try to outmaneuver them. I have never participated actively in politics but merely use it as a data point to predict things.
Admittedly I am to blame for starting this threads with insults toward a particular ideology because I thought it was needed to get the crowd to focus and see the folly of their distraction. That is my fault and I accept the blame for that misstep. Part of me hopes you get the leader you so desperately want next time only to see it makes no difference and we will still be left with each other to navigate the waters on our own.

Now I’m distracted, but thanks to all for their advice, glad to see AN felt this was a safe space for a capatalist to return to.

Scenario one just firmed up their work location, near sorrento/torrey so Mira Mesa is equidistant from their two work sites. There’s a massive rental complex just off mira mesa blvd right next to the 15. Can FLU, AN or anyone else with familiarity with the area give advice of that as a good rental spot to gauge the area for a newcomer? They are not the ones relocating from SE Asia.

[temeculaguy]

In Scenario 2, I may have overstated the District 1 people thing. She grew up an hour outside of District 1 in the countryside,he grew up in Temecula so they are comfortable outside city centers and both like the new district 7 (as do I, district 7 is like 4S ranch or Del Sur, new but a little ways out from the center). For those who have never been there, district one is like Manhattan. They are totally aware there is no equivalent here. They are not chronic urbanites but have lived there for 7 and 3 years respectively so it’s not something ingrained. In that city which lacks subways with the population of NYC it can take 30 minutes to go just a few miles on a motorbike. Proximity is more important there and motorbikes makes driving less enjoyable, especially wearing face masks for pollution, no radio, conversation or phone calls, not to mention a different view of right of way and traffic signals. A 60 mile commute here is probably less taxing mentally than a three mile one there. They may even like Temecula which is where they will stay temporarily once they arrive.

And yes ZK, it is amazing to watch. I assure you it’s not a novelty or a few key phrases but perfect conversation which is a result of 3 years/16 hours a day of speaking/hearing it both in the home and at work. The wife and I recently spent three weeks there with them and it never got old watching people react once he began speaking. I never even tried, every word seems to have 10 different meanings if the tone is different. I pick up other key phrases in other languages fairly easily but Vietnamese and Chinese is on another level, I didn’t even try, I pointed a lot.

The UT has an article about SD having a very high level of price reductions, so perhaps a mild correction is afoot. I appreciate the insight on the seasonal fluctuations, that’s excellent advice and since both scenarios are childless, they should shop in the fall no matter which year.

[temeculaguy]

Now that’s what I’m talking about, just ignore my replies on another thread but you broke out the D word and FLU was right my comments there and here were not directed towards you.

So I like to look at rent to price ratios as a time to purchase and we’ve seen them fluctuate over the past 10-15 years. It doesn’t look like a huge bubble but it looks misaligned but not by the amounts it once did.

I’ve got two specific real estate questions for different kids. Now that we’ve had our opening slap fight, my apologies, now let’s get down to business.

Scenario 1, low 20’s couple, one works inland N. County and had traditional M-F schedule, other one will/may be moved throughout the county every so often but won’t commute during peak hours. Take home pay combined, 8-12k a month, no kids and no immediate plans. RB, 4S, San Marcos, Poway, Penisquitos, Carmel Mtn, Scripps Ranch are all in play. Nice condos and little houses seem to rent for 2500-3000. Buying them seem to be 600k+ with the newer ones having higher taxes and mello roos. They like the newer ones.

Scenario 2, mid 20’s couple, no kids. Can’t give work location or income as they are relocating from Vietnam and will be arriving soon with capital, degrees and mastery of multiple languages. They have a strong desire to live in or near other Vietnamese speakers so as to not lose their skills. One of them also speaks Chinese. Both were English teachers for 3 years in Asia but teaching or language is not their degree nor what they will be doing for work once here, more of a hobby and a comfort to be near a community, not a necessity. She is Asian and fluent in English without an accent and he is a blond white kid who speaks, reads and writes Vietnamese which is fun to see in action. I’m at a loss where to direct them as they are not wanting to replicate where they were but would like to have some connection to people, cuisine and language of where they were. City heights/little saigon fits some of the list but not really, they are accustomed to either a more upscale or safer place without sounding too elitist. If someone is from there or has been there they will understand, they are district 1 people.

There you have it, a real estate question. I’m recommending they all rent for at least a year and based on what I’ve read thus far there’s no real danger of prices getting away from them in the next 12 months.

[temeculaguy]

Flyer or Brian, the “metropolitan elites” reference is exactly what I’m talking about and ZK calls me the douchebag. The condescending virtue signally is equal to or worse than a chip on the shoulder.

[temeculaguy]

I’m not even a trump fan, but all the crying is awesome. “Douchebag” really, and what do you know about my politics? I voted for Obama, twice, Bill Clinton once (went with Perot the other time) and yet I’m the bad guy because I criticize what I believe is the biggest sore losers I’ve seen in my life. You don’t always get a trophy. It’s not ideology I’m rebelling against, its the tantrum of toddlers that I see and I’m waiting until they cry themselves to sleep and i’m still waiting. I’ve read the constitution and the bill of rights a few times I’ve never seen the right to not have your feelings hurt among your inalienable rights. Put on your big girl panties and get back to your life.

I like and dislike some of the things Trump does but I’ve never liked the democrats or the republicans as an lockstep ideology, I like some things from each side and some but not all of what some of other parties believe. I’m waiting for a third party that is in the middle, not on the fringes. I listened to Shultz from Starbucks on the radio a while back and liked some of what what he had to say and shared his frustrations. Maybe I’m a moderate demopublitarian. When Ross Perot lost I cannot remember a march or a protest or fistfight in it’s wake. I was bummed for a day, but then I moved on or maybe that’s when they invented internet porn and at 14400 baud it took so much time to see a naked woman I had no time for protests.

But it doesn’t matter, your candidate or theirs, for the most part they are equally worthless. But the vitriol and hate based on people not agreeing with you or voting like you says far more about you than it does about me. In 1980 if you wanted to be a rebel you got a mohawk, maybe a skateboard and listened to the circle jerks and the germs until people got mad at you. I did 3 out of 4 when I was 13. Now you just have to wear a red hat, support the president or go to a church. Now you get insulted or physically attacked for expressing a viewpoint. I don’t go to a church, but i don’t care if you do.

[temeculaguy]

duplicate

[temeculaguy]

Mea Culpa ZK, it was not my best work. I was frustrated. I haven’t needed any insight into real estate for quite some time and now that I do have a need for some info I was frustrated that I couldn’t find much.

I did find what was once on the cutting edge of economics had become a much different place. Your analysis of my diatribe was once reserved for statements put out by CEO’s of mortgage companies and trade organizations. Nice to see the skills are still sharp if there was a conspiracy afoot. Perhaps there is no more boogeyman we can unite against.

It is possible that real estate is accurately priced, there is no large scale conspiracy like there was in 06, hence the lack of analysis. However looking at the rent to purchase ratio, it still seems off to me in some places and renting looks better especially for young couples in the twenties whose careers have just begun and may take some twists, turns and location changes in the next few years.

But I’ll keep researching over the next year and I’ll make it a point not to be a little more civil. However that was not an idiotic quote.

[temeculaguy]

I don’t need to, once my friends saw her wearing the same BU shirt that I often wear all her actions are sent to/and blamed on me. It’s a guy thing, locker room antics/fraternity behavior never fades despite age. For instance one of my friends is a lifelong and rabid Patriots fan, every time they cheat or get arrested, we send that information to him and he is guilty by association and usually defends them. It’s like an automatic search engine for things you don’t want.

[temeculaguy]

AOC, didn’t she just get caught in an SUV motorcade three blocks to the Subway station then ride it to look like a woman of the people. Having spent post grad time at BU, the place that put the Dr. in Dr. Martin Luther King and where Edison made many breakthroughs, I used to proudly wear my BU t-shirts out and about until this AOC mess came along.

At least Ihlan Omar went to North Dakota State University and not South Dakota State University, which is regularly confused with SDSU bearing the same acronym. Otherwise I’d have to throw away all my college gear.

Nice to see Flyer likes the capitalist world, hopefully he will still be living in one 20 years from now.

[temeculaguy]

Prediction-Your feelings get hurt……and the rest of us secretly enjoy it.

[temeculaguy]

This caused me to see when I became a member, just had my 10 year anniversary. I lurked before that. Then I looked at some of oldest posts from 07, while i can only barely remember it, I followed Deadzone back then.

https://piggington.com/getting_married_in_september_2007_when_should_we_buy#comment-28267

Here’s a gem where we tried to talk someone out of buying countrywide stock

https://piggington.com/countrywide_is_in_aprils_most_attractive_small_caps

the rest of my short lived historical research just made me feel creepy reading about my obsession with Diana Olick. In my defense, she was one of the only ones in the MSM to tell it like it was back then. Sure there was Rich, this site and Shiller, Roubini and a few others. But Olick had the furthest reach and took the greatest risk by reporting the contrarian view while employed by a major network.

At some point someone will film a documentary for the history channel on the untold story of the housing crash. When they do they will likely find this site during their research. So if you found this thread and you are researching, here is my advice: Be sure to interview Rich, he was always our humble leader and be sure to interview Diana, if she got pressured but network executives to soften her reporting due to advertisers it would serve to show the fundamental flaw and the conspiracy element.

Then interview some of the piggs who read the tea leaves and won. I’ll volunteer to be interviewed at my house and show what I paid and how it allows for my hedonist lifestyle , I’m sure other will also. Maybe I should become a film maker, this sounds like something netflix would buy.

[temeculaguy]

You should start a new thread for that question as Inglewood and Temecula are far from each other in both distance and crime rates. These are polar opposites and your comment on Temecula’s lack conservatism while contemplating Inglewood as an option has me worried you are not from these parts.

To answer your question about Inglewood, you must first define “diverse.”

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inglewood,_California

In 2000 it was 47% African American and 46% Hispanic, according to wikipedia it has been shifting more towards Hispanics in recent years. In some circles that would be considered incredibly diverse, but in other circles having two races comprise almost all of it’s inhabitants would be seen as not very diverse. I guess it all depends on what you define diversity as. If you are African American or Hispanic it might seem fine but if you were the only Asian person there, you might not feel the same level of “diversity.”

When relocating, you should look into all sorts of data, Inglewood has some of the highest crime rates in California, some of the lowest home ownership rates and college education rates. Like all places, there are good and bad places to live in any city so my suggestion is to visit the area both day and night before relocating there.

Now on the issue of criminal street gangs, there is less diversity as the bloods seem to have more gangs, there are 9 blood gangs, 5 crip gangs and 7 hispanic gangs. For a town of a little more than 100k, I’d say that’s too many blood gangs for the overall balance of power.

Crips Gangs in Inglewood, California

Blood Gangs in Inglewood, California

Inglewood, California – Hispanic gangs

My apologies for any sarcasm, but where are you relocating from and what were you looking for?

[temeculaguy]

Whatever you do, do not listen to this crowd about stocks. Rich can help you with wealth management but that is his paying job.

Case and point- I did something similar 8 years ago here

https://piggington.com/dow_to_4000#comment-110240

https://piggington.com/where_would_piggs_by_the_stock_market#comment-190310

I’ve posted a few times over the years updating how much money I lost by listening back then.

March 2009 to today here is what happened
HOG 10 to 58
GE 8 to 33
COST 45 to 175
F 2 to 12
MO 15 to 73
HOV .85 to 2.37

Funny thing is most of them made most of their gains within a year or two.

I didn’t even bother to see if any of them split or what the dividend totals were as that will just compound the pain.

I did take lots of real estate advice from this site and I benefited immensely, doubled my money and for that I am eternally grateful. But I plan on living in my house for as long as I can climb stairs so it really isn’t an investment, just long term rent control. It has given me financial freedom but I still regret taking stock advice from this same crowd.

Think of piggington as a cardiologist, incredibly helpful for heart problems. Just don’t ask your cardiologist about a problem with a tooth, go find a dentist for that.

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