[temeculaguy]

paramount-yes. I think a $100 a square or less is just right for 3000+ sq ft houses. They are already pricing their standing inventory close to that price and it’s going to get worse. There are three resales listed in the 600’s, so those are repos in the making. Until now there hasn’t been a lot for sale or repos within the tract but I see it as a tinder box. I think you will see some sub 4’s when their next phase in 08 is ready and they have standing inventory.

[temeculaguy]

paramount-yes. I think a $100 a square or less is just right for 3000+ sq ft houses. They are already pricing their standing inventory close to that price and it’s going to get worse. There are three resales listed in the 600’s, so those are repos in the making. Until now there hasn’t been a lot for sale or repos within the tract but I see it as a tinder box. I think you will see some sub 4’s when their next phase in 08 is ready and they have standing inventory.

[temeculaguy]

paramount-yes. I think a $100 a square or less is just right for 3000+ sq ft houses. They are already pricing their standing inventory close to that price and it’s going to get worse. There are three resales listed in the 600’s, so those are repos in the making. Until now there hasn’t been a lot for sale or repos within the tract but I see it as a tinder box. I think you will see some sub 4’s when their next phase in 08 is ready and they have standing inventory.

[temeculaguy]

paramount-yes. I think a $100 a square or less is just right for 3000+ sq ft houses. They are already pricing their standing inventory close to that price and it’s going to get worse. There are three resales listed in the 600’s, so those are repos in the making. Until now there hasn’t been a lot for sale or repos within the tract but I see it as a tinder box. I think you will see some sub 4’s when their next phase in 08 is ready and they have standing inventory.

[temeculaguy]

paramount-yes. I think a $100 a square or less is just right for 3000+ sq ft houses. They are already pricing their standing inventory close to that price and it’s going to get worse. There are three resales listed in the 600’s, so those are repos in the making. Until now there hasn’t been a lot for sale or repos within the tract but I see it as a tinder box. I think you will see some sub 4’s when their next phase in 08 is ready and they have standing inventory.

[temeculaguy]

Patient, I agree, something is amuck with shiller these days. I realize that he is an academic and doesn’t want to see real pain but he has been pretty flat over the last few months. He seems to also really respect Paulson and doesn’t want to throw him down, but shiller is a bright guy and in the spirit of Chris’ post, just because I think he is off base a little doesn’t mean I should ignore him, homeboy has more than the 10% margin of I.Q. points on me. The other two were pretty entertaining, they seem to share my opinion that the bandaid should be ripped off quickly, take the quick pain and the recovery will ensue. Meddling will only postpone the inevitable, the sooner we restore order to the universe the better and perhaps we can avoid inflation and a weak dollar in the process. But I’m a jerk, I watch the forclosure numbers like a football game, feeling no sympathy and rooting for the ruin of others, karma will get me I’m sure of it. Personally I don’t agree with all that American Dream of home ownership, I’ve owned for all of my adult life with the exception of now and I’m happier than I have eve been. I was enjoying a steak at Morton’s the other day with some buddies and thinking to myself, this bitter renter lifestyle aint half bad. I was the only renter at the table and I picked up the tab, I figured it was the least I could do, I was the only one at the table not losing a thousand dollars a week in equity.

[temeculaguy]

Patient, I agree, something is amuck with shiller these days. I realize that he is an academic and doesn’t want to see real pain but he has been pretty flat over the last few months. He seems to also really respect Paulson and doesn’t want to throw him down, but shiller is a bright guy and in the spirit of Chris’ post, just because I think he is off base a little doesn’t mean I should ignore him, homeboy has more than the 10% margin of I.Q. points on me. The other two were pretty entertaining, they seem to share my opinion that the bandaid should be ripped off quickly, take the quick pain and the recovery will ensue. Meddling will only postpone the inevitable, the sooner we restore order to the universe the better and perhaps we can avoid inflation and a weak dollar in the process. But I’m a jerk, I watch the forclosure numbers like a football game, feeling no sympathy and rooting for the ruin of others, karma will get me I’m sure of it. Personally I don’t agree with all that American Dream of home ownership, I’ve owned for all of my adult life with the exception of now and I’m happier than I have eve been. I was enjoying a steak at Morton’s the other day with some buddies and thinking to myself, this bitter renter lifestyle aint half bad. I was the only renter at the table and I picked up the tab, I figured it was the least I could do, I was the only one at the table not losing a thousand dollars a week in equity.

[temeculaguy]

Patient, I agree, something is amuck with shiller these days. I realize that he is an academic and doesn’t want to see real pain but he has been pretty flat over the last few months. He seems to also really respect Paulson and doesn’t want to throw him down, but shiller is a bright guy and in the spirit of Chris’ post, just because I think he is off base a little doesn’t mean I should ignore him, homeboy has more than the 10% margin of I.Q. points on me. The other two were pretty entertaining, they seem to share my opinion that the bandaid should be ripped off quickly, take the quick pain and the recovery will ensue. Meddling will only postpone the inevitable, the sooner we restore order to the universe the better and perhaps we can avoid inflation and a weak dollar in the process. But I’m a jerk, I watch the forclosure numbers like a football game, feeling no sympathy and rooting for the ruin of others, karma will get me I’m sure of it. Personally I don’t agree with all that American Dream of home ownership, I’ve owned for all of my adult life with the exception of now and I’m happier than I have eve been. I was enjoying a steak at Morton’s the other day with some buddies and thinking to myself, this bitter renter lifestyle aint half bad. I was the only renter at the table and I picked up the tab, I figured it was the least I could do, I was the only one at the table not losing a thousand dollars a week in equity.

[temeculaguy]

Patient, I agree, something is amuck with shiller these days. I realize that he is an academic and doesn’t want to see real pain but he has been pretty flat over the last few months. He seems to also really respect Paulson and doesn’t want to throw him down, but shiller is a bright guy and in the spirit of Chris’ post, just because I think he is off base a little doesn’t mean I should ignore him, homeboy has more than the 10% margin of I.Q. points on me. The other two were pretty entertaining, they seem to share my opinion that the bandaid should be ripped off quickly, take the quick pain and the recovery will ensue. Meddling will only postpone the inevitable, the sooner we restore order to the universe the better and perhaps we can avoid inflation and a weak dollar in the process. But I’m a jerk, I watch the forclosure numbers like a football game, feeling no sympathy and rooting for the ruin of others, karma will get me I’m sure of it. Personally I don’t agree with all that American Dream of home ownership, I’ve owned for all of my adult life with the exception of now and I’m happier than I have eve been. I was enjoying a steak at Morton’s the other day with some buddies and thinking to myself, this bitter renter lifestyle aint half bad. I was the only renter at the table and I picked up the tab, I figured it was the least I could do, I was the only one at the table not losing a thousand dollars a week in equity.

[temeculaguy]

Patient, I agree, something is amuck with shiller these days. I realize that he is an academic and doesn’t want to see real pain but he has been pretty flat over the last few months. He seems to also really respect Paulson and doesn’t want to throw him down, but shiller is a bright guy and in the spirit of Chris’ post, just because I think he is off base a little doesn’t mean I should ignore him, homeboy has more than the 10% margin of I.Q. points on me. The other two were pretty entertaining, they seem to share my opinion that the bandaid should be ripped off quickly, take the quick pain and the recovery will ensue. Meddling will only postpone the inevitable, the sooner we restore order to the universe the better and perhaps we can avoid inflation and a weak dollar in the process. But I’m a jerk, I watch the forclosure numbers like a football game, feeling no sympathy and rooting for the ruin of others, karma will get me I’m sure of it. Personally I don’t agree with all that American Dream of home ownership, I’ve owned for all of my adult life with the exception of now and I’m happier than I have eve been. I was enjoying a steak at Morton’s the other day with some buddies and thinking to myself, this bitter renter lifestyle aint half bad. I was the only renter at the table and I picked up the tab, I figured it was the least I could do, I was the only one at the table not losing a thousand dollars a week in equity.

[temeculaguy]

Neeta, the part you are overlooking is the income tax benefit. All our tax situations are different so I’ll use a generic one. Lets say you earn more than 80k a year, that 1000 a month in interest you are earning lands in top of your bracket so lets average it at about 30%, so you are left with 700 actual income. Then the property taxes you would pay would knock off income at the top of your bracket so a third of it would come back to you, lets say another 80 a month. Since the difference was 370 and tax wise you benefit 380, you are $10 to the good and you wont have any rent increases and can benefit from appreciation. So the real bet is on the appreciation, don’t feel bad either way, all investing is like a casino, where do want to place your bet. Right now the odds are against apreciation and in favor of depreciation so you are now in the same boat as the rest of us reverse flippers, timing your exit from the rental world and trying to predict the future. The disparity doesn’t get that much bigger with a mortgage because of the tax offset however 1200 rent for a 300k property is fundamentally still in favor of renting. 2000 rent on a 300k buy is the break even point in my book, so be thankful you are you and not me because my 2k rental can be had for 280k and I’m still not jumping.

P.S. you were very conservative with your interest estimates so I was equally as conservative with my tax estimates, both are likely to be higher and the only way to truly know is to run scenarios with your money on some tax software.

[temeculaguy]

Neeta, the part you are overlooking is the income tax benefit. All our tax situations are different so I’ll use a generic one. Lets say you earn more than 80k a year, that 1000 a month in interest you are earning lands in top of your bracket so lets average it at about 30%, so you are left with 700 actual income. Then the property taxes you would pay would knock off income at the top of your bracket so a third of it would come back to you, lets say another 80 a month. Since the difference was 370 and tax wise you benefit 380, you are $10 to the good and you wont have any rent increases and can benefit from appreciation. So the real bet is on the appreciation, don’t feel bad either way, all investing is like a casino, where do want to place your bet. Right now the odds are against apreciation and in favor of depreciation so you are now in the same boat as the rest of us reverse flippers, timing your exit from the rental world and trying to predict the future. The disparity doesn’t get that much bigger with a mortgage because of the tax offset however 1200 rent for a 300k property is fundamentally still in favor of renting. 2000 rent on a 300k buy is the break even point in my book, so be thankful you are you and not me because my 2k rental can be had for 280k and I’m still not jumping.

P.S. you were very conservative with your interest estimates so I was equally as conservative with my tax estimates, both are likely to be higher and the only way to truly know is to run scenarios with your money on some tax software.

[temeculaguy]

Neeta, the part you are overlooking is the income tax benefit. All our tax situations are different so I’ll use a generic one. Lets say you earn more than 80k a year, that 1000 a month in interest you are earning lands in top of your bracket so lets average it at about 30%, so you are left with 700 actual income. Then the property taxes you would pay would knock off income at the top of your bracket so a third of it would come back to you, lets say another 80 a month. Since the difference was 370 and tax wise you benefit 380, you are $10 to the good and you wont have any rent increases and can benefit from appreciation. So the real bet is on the appreciation, don’t feel bad either way, all investing is like a casino, where do want to place your bet. Right now the odds are against apreciation and in favor of depreciation so you are now in the same boat as the rest of us reverse flippers, timing your exit from the rental world and trying to predict the future. The disparity doesn’t get that much bigger with a mortgage because of the tax offset however 1200 rent for a 300k property is fundamentally still in favor of renting. 2000 rent on a 300k buy is the break even point in my book, so be thankful you are you and not me because my 2k rental can be had for 280k and I’m still not jumping.

P.S. you were very conservative with your interest estimates so I was equally as conservative with my tax estimates, both are likely to be higher and the only way to truly know is to run scenarios with your money on some tax software.

[temeculaguy]

Neeta, the part you are overlooking is the income tax benefit. All our tax situations are different so I’ll use a generic one. Lets say you earn more than 80k a year, that 1000 a month in interest you are earning lands in top of your bracket so lets average it at about 30%, so you are left with 700 actual income. Then the property taxes you would pay would knock off income at the top of your bracket so a third of it would come back to you, lets say another 80 a month. Since the difference was 370 and tax wise you benefit 380, you are $10 to the good and you wont have any rent increases and can benefit from appreciation. So the real bet is on the appreciation, don’t feel bad either way, all investing is like a casino, where do want to place your bet. Right now the odds are against apreciation and in favor of depreciation so you are now in the same boat as the rest of us reverse flippers, timing your exit from the rental world and trying to predict the future. The disparity doesn’t get that much bigger with a mortgage because of the tax offset however 1200 rent for a 300k property is fundamentally still in favor of renting. 2000 rent on a 300k buy is the break even point in my book, so be thankful you are you and not me because my 2k rental can be had for 280k and I’m still not jumping.

P.S. you were very conservative with your interest estimates so I was equally as conservative with my tax estimates, both are likely to be higher and the only way to truly know is to run scenarios with your money on some tax software.

[temeculaguy]

Neeta, the part you are overlooking is the income tax benefit. All our tax situations are different so I’ll use a generic one. Lets say you earn more than 80k a year, that 1000 a month in interest you are earning lands in top of your bracket so lets average it at about 30%, so you are left with 700 actual income. Then the property taxes you would pay would knock off income at the top of your bracket so a third of it would come back to you, lets say another 80 a month. Since the difference was 370 and tax wise you benefit 380, you are $10 to the good and you wont have any rent increases and can benefit from appreciation. So the real bet is on the appreciation, don’t feel bad either way, all investing is like a casino, where do want to place your bet. Right now the odds are against apreciation and in favor of depreciation so you are now in the same boat as the rest of us reverse flippers, timing your exit from the rental world and trying to predict the future. The disparity doesn’t get that much bigger with a mortgage because of the tax offset however 1200 rent for a 300k property is fundamentally still in favor of renting. 2000 rent on a 300k buy is the break even point in my book, so be thankful you are you and not me because my 2k rental can be had for 280k and I’m still not jumping.

P.S. you were very conservative with your interest estimates so I was equally as conservative with my tax estimates, both are likely to be higher and the only way to truly know is to run scenarios with your money on some tax software.

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