[temeculaguy]

paramount, how are values still sinking? Post an example of a house that could be had in 2009 for a certain price and can be had for less today. An actual sale, not what you thought it was worth. I can post numerous exact models or even exact houses that could be had for less in 2009 than can be found today. This isn’t me calling you a liar, but what you say is contrary to what I see, especially friends who are looking to buy and are frustrated when it’s actually time to submit an offer and contrary to my recent appraisal. Not list prices or pending short sale prices, but closed prices. For example, something like this.

For example, I’ll use a house I tried to buy as a short but it ended up going as a repo then add the neighboring houses, three houses, same street, same side of the street, all within 6 houses of each other. I apologize for the lack of pictures as the older sales have no pictures but the square footage is identical and you can stand on the sidewalk and throw a rock at all three, it’s a close as you can get.

exhibit A, sold march of 2009 for 330k

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44993-Silver-Rose-St-92592/home/12506860

exhibit B, sold June of 2010 for 330k

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45023-Silver-Rose-St-92592/home/12508140

Exhibit C, closed escrow 3 days ago for 370K

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/45033-Silver-Rose-St-92592/home/12508337

throw in exhibit D, the only non short sale, non pending home in that tract currenlty listed, it’s smaller than the three model matches on the same view side of the street and it has no view, listed for 395K (overpriced in my opinion, but that’s your only option).

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33827-Flora-Springs-St-92592/home/12506862

2009 and 2010 were flat, right now things are up, this is what an appraiser lookes at, they look at model matches on the same street with the same view. This is how my house is gone up more than the sum total of all of the payments I’ve made, I’m going up over 2k a month for the last three years, and my evidence is getting out of PMI even though I put 5% down and an the lender’s appraiser says I’m at over 30% equity. Maybe there are circumstances that cause us too see things differently, but the bank agrees with me, despite the redfin chart (which just shows cost per square feet or total cost and doesn’t look at specific location or condition). How is it that my friend cannot buy a house for what I paid, no matter how hard he tries and he is trying, he cannot even get close and it’s getting worse. The new construction is smaller and more expensive

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44967-Kelham-Ct-92592/home/22545620

If you look into it, I’ll bet there other factors adn what you thought you could sell for last year may not have been totally accurate, the only way to tell is to actually sell it or look at sold data in a very tight format, same street, same side of the street, same square footage.

Here’s another example of a neighborhood and a model I am very familiar with and livved in at one time.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/32208-Corte-Mataro-92592/home/6254732

they sold new in 1998 for 185k, it obviously got heloced to death and repo’d, then sold at auction for 237K in December. Someone put some money into counters and flooring and flipped it, now in escrow for for 324K, after 8 days on the market. That’s someone who did their homework. Ask any realtor, it is possible for two different people in the same zip code to get different results from real estate within that zip code.

For fun I looked at one of the few tracts in paloma I’m familair wiht, having dated a resident in this particular tract in the past. It’s far from paloma’s finest, it’s probably the worst.

excluding pending shorts (which can be misleading) the only listed standard is pending and lasted 8 days on the market

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/42975-Corte-Colucci-92592/home/6236389

it’s pending for 225, looking at a dozen or so that sold of that model in that tract, it’s the highest price in recent times and it’s in escrow.

3 houses away went for 55k less just 8 months ago, albeit on the cross street

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/32085-Calle-Ballentine-92592/home/6236419

and I found 4 or 5 at the same square footage in the last two years in the 170’s and 180’s. but today the only one in escrow is 225k. I just don’t see what you are seeing. An aside is that I do not reccomed these as rentals, this is monstertruckville, tiny houses, rent on par with cheaper condos, tennant with big dogs choose this because it is the cheapest place they can have and still have their big dogs, the make for bad neighbors, she was pretty cute though.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=henrysd]The biggest problem to Temecula/Murrieta is lack of good quality tenants. House price are dirt cheap there, so those with good credit and stable income have bought their own homes. This leave predominantely junk quality tenants on the market. Investing in Temecula rental house is similar to investing in junk bond – high yield and also high default rate.[/quote]

Henry do you own a rental here? My immediate family has a number of them and has had them here going back about ten years. The sun city rental, the san jacinto rental, your description is accurate. The Temecula and Murrieta rentals, we’ve found the opposite to be true. But those places are further in distance than La Jolla is to El Cajon. In certain zip codes, the tennant quality is equal to better than many Sd cities, but then again I have no idea where your rentals in Temecula are.

The crappier the rental neighborhood, the crappier the tennants. When I was renting and waiting out the market, I was picky about renting. I rented in that first complex I linked. Eventually a family member bought a rental in there and it has been the best one. In the years I was there, nothing was “for rent” for more than a few days. Like everything, you need to do your research.

[temeculaguy]

It might be, but that all depends on what you want and what you consider too late. If you look at my post above, it pretty much went as I predicted, what’s new, allow me to sprain my arm patting myself on the back.

I’ve mentioned this a lot but I’m not fond of rentals outside of temecula and murrieta proper, the more centralized the better and south of temecula parkway has the best renatl opportunity because their is only one apartment/condo complex with corporate ownership, a couple of condo complexes with individial owners and a few thousand employees of the casino and a dumpload of retail. A big hospital being built at breakneck speed (it’s framed) and a sattelite Cal State just opened, plus a dumpload of retail. These workers have to drive north to rent and North-South traffic blows, so it presents a unique opportunity. Plus the South is almost built out. There are still other opportunities, but stay in those two cities and not places like french valley or menifee, 10-15 miles away, too much land and traffic to get there, renters are not commuters for the most part.

Here are some examples I mentioned a few years ago

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/33544-Winston-Way-92592/unit-B/home/12509628

you could have had that one for 150-175 in 2008/2009, now its pending for 215. A few others are pending between 135 and 160, but they are shorts that have been pending a long time, hard to tell what the real story is. A few just sold in that 160 range with no view and some for less that are the less desirable model, so I’d say it’s up 20k, if you can get one for 160k, they rent for 1500, have no mello roos and low taxes (near 1%) and a 200 association that does a fine job (I rented there) that inludes trash, pool, gates, lawn care, blah, blah. Here’s the problem, there aren’t any for sale that you can walk up and buy, not one active listing.

Another one accross the street from the hospital is this, it’s a zero lot line, dinky, but sort of a sfr.

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/31618-Heather-Way-92592/unit-114/home/6250565

that’s a deal, but it’s been listen one day, I’ll bet it’s already got offers, it will go for 150-200,but this is just to show you that steals may still be had, you just have to work for them.

this next one is more of an apartment you buy

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44800-Adam-Ln-92592/unit-4800/home/8172177

very few listing but this one bedroom wants 119, they were 80 for a 1 and 100k for a 2/2 two years ago, you should be able to get a 2 for 120 now, so it’s 20k since bottom, but the friends I know who are in the market for rentals say it’s slim pickens and you need to be agressive for the non shorts.

as you move into the larger sfr’s, the prices are up and they don’t pencil out as well as rentals.

In Summary, it has bounced off bottom, there are still many rentals that can be aquired and be cash positive from day one if you get a good price, but you need a renter, which is why I posted my diatribe about location and demographics. My relative who picked up one in the very first link at about 135 or 140k back in early 2009 has never had it empty and gets 1500 mo. Rent is the same, you might get one for 160 or so, still might work for you.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=sdrealtor]I can only speak for SD real estate but if you look at the low and mid tier markets it is quiet hot right now. If you look at the high tier its a bit of ablood bath IMO.

One thing it does in discredit the old time Bugs Butterfly theory. The low end is recovering, the mid is stable to recovering and the high is getting smacked. They couldnt be more disconnected.[/quote]

I hate to disagree but that is exactly the bugs butterfly theory only in a different part of the arc. You see, when the lower fell and the middle mostly held and the upper held up entirely, the theory was in the beginning phase. The middle would soon fall because the lower wouldn’t move up and the price to benefit ratio would eventually hit the upper market, it would just take time. Now that the egg has moved through the snake, the appearance will be different. The low end is hot, eventually it will spill into the middle, then the upper end. Patience grasshopper, even good action movies have a few kissing scenes. The lower areas will slow when the price closes the gap and the buyers decide to go up a neighborhood for a small price gap, eventually that hits the high end. The pain train had scheduled stops on the way in, but it also has scheduled stops on the way out. If I may quote the greatest television show of all time (The Wire), “everything is connected.”

[temeculaguy]

If I won the lottery tomorrow, I’m sure I’d have to pay more, both in dollars and in percentage. I’m cool with that. I’m in that 53%, I’m also in that 20% that has to pay their kids entire college tab (which is why I’m up late, I was required to fill out the financial aid forms even though mine won’t be getting any). But I don’t care. I know some people who are poor and some who could be considered working poor. People who worry about making the rent, each and every month, sometimes they don’t make it. I pay a lot, but I never worry about not eating or having a roof over my head I’m no better than the guy who is making minimum wage and scraping by, so what if I pay his share too, at the end of the day, my life is better than his. Don’t tell me it’s hard work either, even my work is easier and more fun than the woman who cleans my office and I earn in an hour what she earns in a day. This life will end way to soon for all of us, this is one game nobody wins, so stop worrying about your fair share or what someone else has and thank your lucky stars that there’s always a bottle of cabernet on the table and a basketball game on tv. Pay your taxes and enjoy the rest.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=sdrealtor]Hate to break it to you TG but this is old news. The CAR family closed almost 6 months ago.[/quote]

In my defense, other posters were congratulating them and the dates of their posts were also today. Also in my defense, this is not the first thing to have gotten by me and based on my ever declining faculties, it will not be the last. I’m late to most parties, but I bring it when I arrive, it’s part of my charm. I tend to miss a lot during my sporadic forays into the occasional romantic entanglement. I’d love to say I will improve, but I won’t, so a belated congrats to the Car’s.

[temeculaguy]

Is there a way to find out what the bond is actually paying in interest as opposed to trying to calculate it yourself. I’ve read numerous articles where mello-roos districts have refinanced and lowered the cost to residents. Could some of what looks like mello-roos be a community service district fee, which can’t be paid off as it is for ongoing maintenance or services that other residents of a city do not get. For over 50k, you’d want to make sure that you are getting out of the entire bill, not just part. You’d also want to make sure there aren’t plans to refi on the part of the municipality as the buyers of certain muni bonds don’t pay tax, thus they have a lower yield. I’m kinda shocked they are paying 9%, that’s more Greece pays.

Here’s an article from about 5 years ago when rates were much higher and a municipality refi’d the mello roos for just a .9 interest rate bump.

http://www.theacorn.com/news/2006-05-18/Business/045.html

The article indicates the city in the article discovered by accident they could refi the mello roos bond, perhaps sending the mello rood district officials this info could save you even more, their rate should be less than a heloc.

If they end up doing it, I expect some mention in whatever news coverage they receive, it’s good for my social life

[temeculaguy]

i go out of town for a week and CAR buys a house!!!! Congrats, welcome to the dark side, we have cookies. Can we officially declare this the bottom? Walter, CAR, JP, Rich, are there anymore old school bears left? CNBC’s slide show today was about which towns have rebounded the most and Diana Olick’s report today was about how short sales now outnumber repo’s for closings. Warren Buffet said he would buy as many SFR’s as he could right now. The data is changing, however national data is nothing compared to my favorite barometer, piggs. If I were the NAR, I would find a way to use this site as my supportive data, using a timeline of quotes, placing dates next to them and then the date the person bought. I’ve never been nervous about my decision to re-enter the world of home ownership, but after seeing some of the last big dogs get off the porch, my confidence level on a scale of 1 to 10 is at about 100 right now. I think order has been restored to the universe and the circle of life is complete. Now what will be next bubble and how do we avoid it together?

[temeculaguy]

Don’t fight it. I know Philly is in first, and you were thinking this is their year. Then Lin literally comes out of nowhere. It’s 2012, didn’t the mayans say this would happen. Look around, the president is African-American, the cover of Sports illustrated and the hottest player in sports is an Asian-American Basketball player from Harvard (for the non sports fans, ivy league schools do not give sports scholarships, harvard has produced more U.S. presidents than professional basketball players). I believe all we need is for men and women to switch sexual roles and for women to pursue men in bars for one-night stands and the trifecta of utopia will be complete. I think we are just a clippers (most cursed basketball team ever) and a Lin led Knicks NBA finals and it’s time to start walking to our cars at night in groups, just for our safety. Embrace the future, it’s gonna be great!!! Personally I’m not afraid of sexual harassment, I got plans of sleeping my way to the top, I’m gonna be that guy when it’s a woman’s world.

[temeculaguy]

I’m all in with Lin. My anemic Lakers have had me spending more time watching and attending Aztec basketball games, but since his game vs. the Lakers a few games ago, I’m ready to get one of his Jerseys. I was at the Garden just 40 days ago when I was in NYC, his picture wasn’t even on the billboards, they are probably commissioning a statue already.

Even if you ignore the fact that he’s breaking down racial stereotypes, expanding the market home and especially abroad, proving the college recruiters wrong, proving the pro recruiters wrong, giving hope to every walk-on or kid who didn’t get a scholarship…..forget all that, he’s not a novelty, the kid has got game and his heart reminds me of Kobe. In fact he out Kobe’d Kobe last week. Talk about fearless, it was his 2nd or 3rd start and he gets to face Kobe and shows no fear. It was like watching moneyball, Amare and Melo were both out (the two biggest stars on the team) and Lin and his fellow back-up partners probably earn less money total than One player on the other team. The Lakers really need a low salary,fast, young and accurate guard, it hurts to see him play against my lakers but it’s impossible not to like the guy after seeing him interviewed. Amare will have his new Nash, it will be fun to see that relationship develop. He needs to work on his turnovers but that should come with experience. Thank god they are in the Eastern Conference. Clippers/Knicks Finals- I’m calling it right now.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=paramount][quote=walterwhite]Personally I think I just entered a mini-depression today. Everything seems pointless.[/quote]

Consider buying a BMW, that should cheer you up.

[/quote]

Good Advice, it certainly has changed the adjective I formerly used for driving. I’ve replaced “have to” with “get to”. For instance I no longer “have to” drive to the store, now I “get to” drive to it. It applies to other makes of cars too, the point is to find something that makes you happy.

5yes, thank you very much and I’m happy for you. I love harveston, I’ll mention it to him and I’ll send you a private message if he’s interested.

I like what davelj said, I think there is merit to that observation. The world won’t end, it will just be different and the consumer mentality of this country may have been permanenetly affected, which isn’t such a bad thing when you put it into perspective.

[temeculaguy]

I’m with carlsbadworker, I think zillow or redfin can paint a somewhat distorted view. There were times where just looking at those sites made things look better than they were and times where they can make it look worse. I think this is one of those times it makes it look worse. I have a buddy who want to buy in my neighborhood and he is totally frustrated. He’s willing to pay 15-20% more than I paid at the end of 2008, but he can’t. He has to go to 30% over and it seems to be getting worse. I have the refin app on my phone and we’ve driven around a few times, even though a place is listed and it says it’s active, when you call, it’s a different story. I’m afraid he’s not going to able to pull this off by himself, he’s going to need a buyers agent, the good ones and the well priced ones are going quick.

Brown lawns are rare now, but perhaps the best analysis of our local market, I refi’d just a few months ago to a conventional, dropping my PMI. Their independent appraisal had my house appraised something like 25 or 30% up in just 30 months.

[temeculaguy]

My kid showed me that article on the patch. Don’t stress, it’s not going to impact your property values. People commit suicide, it happens, regardless of socio econimic status or neighborhood. Luckily, newspapers don’t write stories about it unless its someone famous or involves a public spectacle or snarls traffic. The internet news sources don’t have the same editorial staff to squash those articles. That article you linked is the only mention of it in cyberspace, as it should be. We don’t know why she did it and we don’t need to.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=briansd1]

I really wish Southern California airports had trains directly servicing the terminals.[/quote]

Careful what you wish for, JFK in New York has trains, I just used their fancy new trains three weeks ago, the Airtrain. It costs $6 each way, so that’s $12 per person RT, $36 total for three people, it’s probably 4 miles. From there the Long Island RR or the Subway to get to the city, I forget the cost but it felt better because at least you went further. I’m guessing it’s 20 or 30 miles between the airport and the city and the journey will take you 1-3 hours (On a Saturday with track maintenance, it took us 3 hours). So it costs more than parking at the airport here, takes longer, has more variables and you get to haul your luggage up stairs, through turnstiles, through crowds, and a lot farther than any parking lot at our airports, oh joy. The worst part is that it’s like being on an elevator for hours, nobody talks to each other. You are supposed to sit silently and avoid eye contact. I was always so relieved when someone had a touristy accent, like midwesterners, Italians or Brits because at least they talked. We actually met some really nice Italians on holiday waiting 30 minutes for the airtrain to take us four miles. I met countless friendly New Yorkers, in fact it was one of the friendliest places I’ve ever been, shattering my stereotypes and experiences from 20 years ago, it’t just so weird how they all lock up during any form of mass transit. The tube in london is the same, takes too long to the airport and the ettiquette is unfriendly and contradicts the customs above ground. But I guess we do the same thing in elevators and urinals, face front, no talking, it’s just that it’s a shorter experience.

It’s Funny, because it was just three weeks ago when I said the exact opposite as we arrived at our home airport “thank god we don’t have trains to the airport.”

[temeculaguy]

I think it’s relative and it it could be my ears. My daughter repeatedly tells me I need to get my ears checked. I researched my stereo and it turns out I have the hifi, but not the logic7. I guess my last car had a great stereo because it feels like something is missing, it’s excellent quality, but at max volume, I keep turning the knob wanting for more. It’s like having an old girlfriend with DD’s and then having a new one with C’s, they are great….but where’s the rest, something is missing?

I just read some model specific audiophole blogs and there some really easy and cheap fixes to take it up a few notches without a complete overhaul. I want to keep the actual unit since it is part of the lcd monitor, integrates the phone, has speed sensitive volume and has the ipod plug in the center console, so upgrading speakers and amps is not that big of a deal. I could also go to the doctor and see if it’s me and not the car.

Do you guys ever feel slightly immature because we are probably all in our 40’s and devoting time and energy to splitting hairs about horsepower and subwoofers. I feel it on occasion, but I’m positive my issues come from spending some of my formitive and poorer years without a stereo at all and a 2 digit horsepower engine (or close to it). No wonder women think we are nuts, we are.

[Author]

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