Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
temeculaguy
ParticipantBe careful mojo, you are going to get the tsuinami crowd all pissed off by using numbers and such. Might I suggest you mention relationships, child rearing or politics to take the focus off of numbers, especially those numbers that suggest the bottom has passed. Might I suggest that you attack the validity of the employment estimates because the estimator is a woman and probably hates short men, or that Obama forced them to put out rosy estimates, it just makes it more fun, nobody wants to swallow bitter pills.
ParticipantBe careful mojo, you are going to get the tsuinami crowd all pissed off by using numbers and such. Might I suggest you mention relationships, child rearing or politics to take the focus off of numbers, especially those numbers that suggest the bottom has passed. Might I suggest that you attack the validity of the employment estimates because the estimator is a woman and probably hates short men, or that Obama forced them to put out rosy estimates, it just makes it more fun, nobody wants to swallow bitter pills.
ParticipantBe careful mojo, you are going to get the tsuinami crowd all pissed off by using numbers and such. Might I suggest you mention relationships, child rearing or politics to take the focus off of numbers, especially those numbers that suggest the bottom has passed. Might I suggest that you attack the validity of the employment estimates because the estimator is a woman and probably hates short men, or that Obama forced them to put out rosy estimates, it just makes it more fun, nobody wants to swallow bitter pills.
ParticipantInteresting article Harry. I was recently asked by someone in a private message to look for certain kind of property in my town and I was a little suprised by the trends, there is almost nothing left that isn’t pending already. Here’s some numbers for my little zip code in the IE, I’, rounding them to even numbers
current nods 600
current nots 50
current foreclosures 400 (these are those still active, dating back to september, the real number is probably lower since they don’t always clean up the data quickly)Current mls excluding shorts or pending 150
total population about 60k
averave sales are about 150 a month
in 2008, nod/not/foreclosure numbers were double to triple current numbers
in 2008, total listings exceeded a 1,000
current prices are 15-25% higher than a year ago, time on market for market priced isn’t really measured in months, days or weeks, I’d say minutes is the current climate. In my tract, not one house is actually for sale that isnt pending or a short, in the neighboring tract there is only one and it’s priced way too high, 20-30% over market in my estimation.
So if you are a bank, and you are sitting on some empty houses (which are actually becoming rare nowadays) or you have someone who isn’t paying and isn’t going to qual for a program, just give them the boot, take a much smaller loss than you would have last year and sell it as is, in a single day and with a bidding war. I think it’s bounced off bottom but it’s also not going to bounce much more, it’s found it’s balance, 300k still gets you a really nice tract home with a 3 car and over 2000 sq ft, but it’s not going to get to 400k anytime soon so the conditions are perfect for the bank, all of the nods and the nots and the stuff they already have can get turned over as fast as they can take them back, so they should just do it, they wont even hurt prices in the process. In fact, if they get their act together right now on the backlog, they can have the bulk of it hit by spring, right when the buyers start showing up.
I’m sticking to my prediction from a while ago, the worst has passed, it’s not going to shoot up but it’s not going to fall either, flat to mild increase from here on out. At least locally, in my little world.
ParticipantInteresting article Harry. I was recently asked by someone in a private message to look for certain kind of property in my town and I was a little suprised by the trends, there is almost nothing left that isn’t pending already. Here’s some numbers for my little zip code in the IE, I’, rounding them to even numbers
current nods 600
current nots 50
current foreclosures 400 (these are those still active, dating back to september, the real number is probably lower since they don’t always clean up the data quickly)Current mls excluding shorts or pending 150
total population about 60k
averave sales are about 150 a month
in 2008, nod/not/foreclosure numbers were double to triple current numbers
in 2008, total listings exceeded a 1,000
current prices are 15-25% higher than a year ago, time on market for market priced isn’t really measured in months, days or weeks, I’d say minutes is the current climate. In my tract, not one house is actually for sale that isnt pending or a short, in the neighboring tract there is only one and it’s priced way too high, 20-30% over market in my estimation.
So if you are a bank, and you are sitting on some empty houses (which are actually becoming rare nowadays) or you have someone who isn’t paying and isn’t going to qual for a program, just give them the boot, take a much smaller loss than you would have last year and sell it as is, in a single day and with a bidding war. I think it’s bounced off bottom but it’s also not going to bounce much more, it’s found it’s balance, 300k still gets you a really nice tract home with a 3 car and over 2000 sq ft, but it’s not going to get to 400k anytime soon so the conditions are perfect for the bank, all of the nods and the nots and the stuff they already have can get turned over as fast as they can take them back, so they should just do it, they wont even hurt prices in the process. In fact, if they get their act together right now on the backlog, they can have the bulk of it hit by spring, right when the buyers start showing up.
I’m sticking to my prediction from a while ago, the worst has passed, it’s not going to shoot up but it’s not going to fall either, flat to mild increase from here on out. At least locally, in my little world.
ParticipantInteresting article Harry. I was recently asked by someone in a private message to look for certain kind of property in my town and I was a little suprised by the trends, there is almost nothing left that isn’t pending already. Here’s some numbers for my little zip code in the IE, I’, rounding them to even numbers
current nods 600
current nots 50
current foreclosures 400 (these are those still active, dating back to september, the real number is probably lower since they don’t always clean up the data quickly)Current mls excluding shorts or pending 150
total population about 60k
averave sales are about 150 a month
in 2008, nod/not/foreclosure numbers were double to triple current numbers
in 2008, total listings exceeded a 1,000
current prices are 15-25% higher than a year ago, time on market for market priced isn’t really measured in months, days or weeks, I’d say minutes is the current climate. In my tract, not one house is actually for sale that isnt pending or a short, in the neighboring tract there is only one and it’s priced way too high, 20-30% over market in my estimation.
So if you are a bank, and you are sitting on some empty houses (which are actually becoming rare nowadays) or you have someone who isn’t paying and isn’t going to qual for a program, just give them the boot, take a much smaller loss than you would have last year and sell it as is, in a single day and with a bidding war. I think it’s bounced off bottom but it’s also not going to bounce much more, it’s found it’s balance, 300k still gets you a really nice tract home with a 3 car and over 2000 sq ft, but it’s not going to get to 400k anytime soon so the conditions are perfect for the bank, all of the nods and the nots and the stuff they already have can get turned over as fast as they can take them back, so they should just do it, they wont even hurt prices in the process. In fact, if they get their act together right now on the backlog, they can have the bulk of it hit by spring, right when the buyers start showing up.
I’m sticking to my prediction from a while ago, the worst has passed, it’s not going to shoot up but it’s not going to fall either, flat to mild increase from here on out. At least locally, in my little world.
ParticipantInteresting article Harry. I was recently asked by someone in a private message to look for certain kind of property in my town and I was a little suprised by the trends, there is almost nothing left that isn’t pending already. Here’s some numbers for my little zip code in the IE, I’, rounding them to even numbers
current nods 600
current nots 50
current foreclosures 400 (these are those still active, dating back to september, the real number is probably lower since they don’t always clean up the data quickly)Current mls excluding shorts or pending 150
total population about 60k
averave sales are about 150 a month
in 2008, nod/not/foreclosure numbers were double to triple current numbers
in 2008, total listings exceeded a 1,000
current prices are 15-25% higher than a year ago, time on market for market priced isn’t really measured in months, days or weeks, I’d say minutes is the current climate. In my tract, not one house is actually for sale that isnt pending or a short, in the neighboring tract there is only one and it’s priced way too high, 20-30% over market in my estimation.
So if you are a bank, and you are sitting on some empty houses (which are actually becoming rare nowadays) or you have someone who isn’t paying and isn’t going to qual for a program, just give them the boot, take a much smaller loss than you would have last year and sell it as is, in a single day and with a bidding war. I think it’s bounced off bottom but it’s also not going to bounce much more, it’s found it’s balance, 300k still gets you a really nice tract home with a 3 car and over 2000 sq ft, but it’s not going to get to 400k anytime soon so the conditions are perfect for the bank, all of the nods and the nots and the stuff they already have can get turned over as fast as they can take them back, so they should just do it, they wont even hurt prices in the process. In fact, if they get their act together right now on the backlog, they can have the bulk of it hit by spring, right when the buyers start showing up.
I’m sticking to my prediction from a while ago, the worst has passed, it’s not going to shoot up but it’s not going to fall either, flat to mild increase from here on out. At least locally, in my little world.
ParticipantInteresting article Harry. I was recently asked by someone in a private message to look for certain kind of property in my town and I was a little suprised by the trends, there is almost nothing left that isn’t pending already. Here’s some numbers for my little zip code in the IE, I’, rounding them to even numbers
current nods 600
current nots 50
current foreclosures 400 (these are those still active, dating back to september, the real number is probably lower since they don’t always clean up the data quickly)Current mls excluding shorts or pending 150
total population about 60k
averave sales are about 150 a month
in 2008, nod/not/foreclosure numbers were double to triple current numbers
in 2008, total listings exceeded a 1,000
current prices are 15-25% higher than a year ago, time on market for market priced isn’t really measured in months, days or weeks, I’d say minutes is the current climate. In my tract, not one house is actually for sale that isnt pending or a short, in the neighboring tract there is only one and it’s priced way too high, 20-30% over market in my estimation.
So if you are a bank, and you are sitting on some empty houses (which are actually becoming rare nowadays) or you have someone who isn’t paying and isn’t going to qual for a program, just give them the boot, take a much smaller loss than you would have last year and sell it as is, in a single day and with a bidding war. I think it’s bounced off bottom but it’s also not going to bounce much more, it’s found it’s balance, 300k still gets you a really nice tract home with a 3 car and over 2000 sq ft, but it’s not going to get to 400k anytime soon so the conditions are perfect for the bank, all of the nods and the nots and the stuff they already have can get turned over as fast as they can take them back, so they should just do it, they wont even hurt prices in the process. In fact, if they get their act together right now on the backlog, they can have the bulk of it hit by spring, right when the buyers start showing up.
I’m sticking to my prediction from a while ago, the worst has passed, it’s not going to shoot up but it’s not going to fall either, flat to mild increase from here on out. At least locally, in my little world.
ParticipantMaybe you are right scardey and it’s a sickness, the same goes for some stock traders and other forms of investment/gambling. The only difference is vs. lets say someone with a substance abuse problem is that many of the amatuer r/e moguls and stock traders is that when things are going well, they get on your nerves, they brag and they throw money around, pretend to be something they are not and criticize those of us who are more prudent. Cycles always cycle, tables always turn, and they want help or pity when it happens, but we plodders, we piggies got no pity when we were getting priced out. Maybe that makes you a better man, when the choice is to be right or to be kind you choose to be kind, good for you, I’m still deciding how I feel but pity isn’t an option just yet. I haven’t evolved just yet, my wounds are still fresh and dudes like this caused them and are now costing me. Guess who is paying his electric bill, the other ratepayers, I’ve never had my own pizza oven or ranch, that kinda chaps my hide.
There is treatment available, it’s called books, he should start with the wealth of nations, a little invisible hand should cure him of his ills, doing big boy things without a big boy education, all science and no philosiphy, just never ends well.
ParticipantMaybe you are right scardey and it’s a sickness, the same goes for some stock traders and other forms of investment/gambling. The only difference is vs. lets say someone with a substance abuse problem is that many of the amatuer r/e moguls and stock traders is that when things are going well, they get on your nerves, they brag and they throw money around, pretend to be something they are not and criticize those of us who are more prudent. Cycles always cycle, tables always turn, and they want help or pity when it happens, but we plodders, we piggies got no pity when we were getting priced out. Maybe that makes you a better man, when the choice is to be right or to be kind you choose to be kind, good for you, I’m still deciding how I feel but pity isn’t an option just yet. I haven’t evolved just yet, my wounds are still fresh and dudes like this caused them and are now costing me. Guess who is paying his electric bill, the other ratepayers, I’ve never had my own pizza oven or ranch, that kinda chaps my hide.
There is treatment available, it’s called books, he should start with the wealth of nations, a little invisible hand should cure him of his ills, doing big boy things without a big boy education, all science and no philosiphy, just never ends well.
ParticipantMaybe you are right scardey and it’s a sickness, the same goes for some stock traders and other forms of investment/gambling. The only difference is vs. lets say someone with a substance abuse problem is that many of the amatuer r/e moguls and stock traders is that when things are going well, they get on your nerves, they brag and they throw money around, pretend to be something they are not and criticize those of us who are more prudent. Cycles always cycle, tables always turn, and they want help or pity when it happens, but we plodders, we piggies got no pity when we were getting priced out. Maybe that makes you a better man, when the choice is to be right or to be kind you choose to be kind, good for you, I’m still deciding how I feel but pity isn’t an option just yet. I haven’t evolved just yet, my wounds are still fresh and dudes like this caused them and are now costing me. Guess who is paying his electric bill, the other ratepayers, I’ve never had my own pizza oven or ranch, that kinda chaps my hide.
There is treatment available, it’s called books, he should start with the wealth of nations, a little invisible hand should cure him of his ills, doing big boy things without a big boy education, all science and no philosiphy, just never ends well.
ParticipantMaybe you are right scardey and it’s a sickness, the same goes for some stock traders and other forms of investment/gambling. The only difference is vs. lets say someone with a substance abuse problem is that many of the amatuer r/e moguls and stock traders is that when things are going well, they get on your nerves, they brag and they throw money around, pretend to be something they are not and criticize those of us who are more prudent. Cycles always cycle, tables always turn, and they want help or pity when it happens, but we plodders, we piggies got no pity when we were getting priced out. Maybe that makes you a better man, when the choice is to be right or to be kind you choose to be kind, good for you, I’m still deciding how I feel but pity isn’t an option just yet. I haven’t evolved just yet, my wounds are still fresh and dudes like this caused them and are now costing me. Guess who is paying his electric bill, the other ratepayers, I’ve never had my own pizza oven or ranch, that kinda chaps my hide.
There is treatment available, it’s called books, he should start with the wealth of nations, a little invisible hand should cure him of his ills, doing big boy things without a big boy education, all science and no philosiphy, just never ends well.
ParticipantMaybe you are right scardey and it’s a sickness, the same goes for some stock traders and other forms of investment/gambling. The only difference is vs. lets say someone with a substance abuse problem is that many of the amatuer r/e moguls and stock traders is that when things are going well, they get on your nerves, they brag and they throw money around, pretend to be something they are not and criticize those of us who are more prudent. Cycles always cycle, tables always turn, and they want help or pity when it happens, but we plodders, we piggies got no pity when we were getting priced out. Maybe that makes you a better man, when the choice is to be right or to be kind you choose to be kind, good for you, I’m still deciding how I feel but pity isn’t an option just yet. I haven’t evolved just yet, my wounds are still fresh and dudes like this caused them and are now costing me. Guess who is paying his electric bill, the other ratepayers, I’ve never had my own pizza oven or ranch, that kinda chaps my hide.
There is treatment available, it’s called books, he should start with the wealth of nations, a little invisible hand should cure him of his ills, doing big boy things without a big boy education, all science and no philosiphy, just never ends well.
ParticipantRSF wouldn’t really lend itself to ppsf or rental percentages like a tract home or a normal home, that’s a niche market, an extreme niche. It will certainly not compare to a a condo or even a ghetto house when comparing rent to purchase ratios because they are rarely rentals and they don’t pencil out as rentals very often. Unfortunately, to get a feel for it’s value you are stuck with normal comps and historical prices for the immediate area.
Patb, if you are not familar with that area, it’s Bel Air of sorts, only about at thousand houses and loaded with celebs, hard to valuate using conventional methods.
Check the notable residents list near the bottom, it’s actually missing some that I know of personally and I’ve never been there.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rancho_Santa_Fe,_California
I’d say 2001 pricing is a safe play and was always the goal when this thing started, regardless of the zip code (except for detroit).
Enjoy the pad, what a cool place to live, I could never live there, I’d be drunk all the time. I’d be at the local watering hole every night and at every BBQ I could crash every day, there are just too many people there I’d want to get drunk with to hear their stories. Lefty, Pete Rozelle, Bill Gates, Luke Walton, Arthur Laffer just to name a few, I’d need a new liver every year. Can you imagine being drunk in a bar or at a party with a bunch of guys and you keep trying to get Arthur to say “vooodooo economics” in Ben Stein’s voice from Ferris Bueller, anyone, anyone. I’d laugh till I vomited. Plus I’d probably try to hit on Janet Jackson, Jenny Craig and Juice Newton so many times there would be restraining orders against me (and that’s just the J’s).
-
AuthorPosts
