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svelteParticipantA couple more data points:
[img_assist|nid=26985|title=Coronavirus Compared To Other Illnesses|desc=|link=node|align=center|width=466|height=310]
svelteParticipant[quote=Hobie]C-mon svelt. Contagious vs. individual medical issue(non-contagious).
Nice try 😉 I expect far better from you. You are quite smart friend.[/quote]
WTF? Have you been drinking?
I don’t even know how to respond to that.
svelteParticipant[quote=Hobie][quote=ltsdd] Imagine what the numbers would be like if the coronavirus was allowed to spread and proliferate freely like the flu is[/quote]
We don’t just let the flu run unabated. We have flu vaccines each year. This is new virus.
Svelt: Do this justify a panic? Closing schools, frantic hording? That is the point– flu is more deadly today vs. coronavirus today.[/quote]
In other words, you used false statements (“not so much re coronavirus”) to buttress your point.
Whether this is an overreaction or not is yet to be seen.
Let’s see…I have high blood pressure. My chance of dying from coronavirus is 6%. What percent chance of death do you think justifies closing of schools, banning large gatherings? Just curious.
[img_assist|nid=26984|title=Chance of Death from Coronavirus|desc=|link=node|align=center|width=466|height=383]
svelteParticipant[quote=Hobie]itsdd: keep in mind people were dying from the flu. Not so much re coronavirus. [/quote]
Back the truck up a minute.
2009 Swine Flu.
Earliest Reported US Infection: March 28, 2009
First Death in US: April 27, 2009
First Death of US citizen: May 5, 2009
US Deaths as of Sept 3, 2009: 5932020 Coronavirus
Earliest Reported US Infection: Jan 21, 2020
First Death in US: Feb 29, 2020
US Deaths as of March 13, 2020: 48
US Deaths as of Sept 3, 2020: UNKNOWNWhat was your point again?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2009_flu_pandemic_in_the_United_States
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_the_United_States
svelteParticipant[quote=flu]
Kind of weird to be working from home. I need to order a new machine gonna get a 12 core Ryzen 3900x[/quote]It’s not too bad once in a while. I do it sometimes. The dog loves it when I stay home, she’s glued to my side all day.
I wouldn’t want to do it all week every week…I’d get cabin fever and gain 20 lbs.
svelteParticipant[quote=FlyerInHi] But they are pretty fair minded and they tell me funny stories of their first impressions of usa — things they never knew about the US until they arrived. [/quote]
I’d like to hear a few of those impressions about what they didn’t know until they got here.
That’s one of the types of videos I’m addicted to on YouTube.
svelteParticipant[quote=spdrun]
We’ve been so busy fighting the last wars (illegal immigration and terrorism) that we’ve gutted our response to the next war (epidemic).[/quote]A lot of truth to that.
svelteParticipant[quote=flu]If history is going to be a guide for how the Coronavirus can play out , skip the normal social and cyclical economic models that people were using to predict a recession. This pandemic event is nothing like we’ve seen in modern times.
A closer model would be the one time pandemic event in 1918 also known as the Spanish Flu. That seems to be a more appropriate model of how things can play out. We haven’t had any other major pandemic event since then.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu
The majority of the death from that was surprise surprise from a cytokine storm.
The killer wasn’t the first wave of that flu. The killer was the second wave that occurred in August that was a deadlier mutation of the first that affected those that weren’t infected by the first wave had not built immunity to the second mutated flu. Which begs the question , if this Coronavirus is bad now, what’s a mutated version going to look like.[/quote]
You went down the same thought process I did flu in that the 1918 epidemic is the closest equivalent. I have actually followed that event quite a bit because my grandmother’s brother died from the 1918 strain while living in Tulsa, Oklahoma. He was a divorced 38 year old male with one child. I have inherited some of his belongings and they are fascinating.
In any case, no telling whether there will be a mutated version, and we certainly know a helluva lot more about medicine 100 years later. But I’m with you that this isn’t going to be a one month thing. It will likely affect us all into and possibly through the summer.
We had a discussion about this topic around the kitchen island last night and we all agreed with that time frame.
svelteParticipant[quote=svelte]
I’m now wishing I had went with 10-15% as that would have been wiser. That could last me few years until the market recovered. So on the next downswing, I’ll probably move from 20 to 10-15% stable/bonds and hope I can get that lost money (in my mind) back. That’s the plan anyway.
[/quote]Well. Market is back where it was when I moved the second 10% to stable funds.
Now is my chance. Am I brave enough to pull the trigger?
We shall see…
svelteParticipant[quote=svelte][quote=Hobie][quote=svelte]..didn’t say what would spark it, and he didn’t have to. [/quote]
Wouldn’t that be just a 50/50 probability? Soothsayers have to be better than a coin toss.[/quote]
Since Aug 1929, we have had a recession in 186 out of the 1131 months. That 16.5% of the time.
You could argue that since he picked a twelve month period he raised his odds way above 16.5%, but I would argue back that those 186 months were in large clumps and not independent of each other as a coin toss would be.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States%5B/quote%5D
Or another way to look at it based on the link above.
Of the 71 years since 1929, the US has had a recession in 30 of those years— which is about 43% of those years.Closer to 50% but not exactly there yet. he bet on the riskier option.
svelteParticipant[quote=flu] It’s a definitive easier to sell to the American public (we need to do this for public health safety reasons) than saying we need to get into a trade war again, now with the EU. Remember during the conference yesterday, Donald initially also included not only people but also goods/cargo from EU….something later.thst he retracted…I don’t call that an accidental slip. It seems more like a warning shot.[/quote]
This thought did cross my mind.
Another thought is that flights out of the UK are going to get very expensive as travelers in the EU can just go from the EU to the UK and THEN fly to the US.
Unless it is a worldwide travel ban to the US, people are just gonna go the country where they can still get to the US and fly.
svelteParticipant[quote=Hobie][quote=svelte]..didn’t say what would spark it, and he didn’t have to. [/quote]
Wouldn’t that be just a 50/50 probability? Soothsayers have to be better than a coin toss.[/quote]
Since Aug 1929, we have had a recession in 186 out of the 1131 months. That 16.5% of the time.
You could argue that since he picked a twelve month period he raised his odds way above 16.5%, but I would argue back that those 186 months were in large clumps and not independent of each other as a coin toss would be.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_recessions_in_the_United_States
svelteParticipant[quote=LiarInHI]Sorry but I missed the worldwide pandemic predictions. This isn’t an economic or political downturn it’s a pandemic. Carry on with your negativity and nonsense. They predicted none of this[/quote]
Well flu, we’ll have to agree to disagree on this one. FIH didn’t say what would spark it, and he didn’t have to. He just predicted that something would cause a recession in 2020. And it is looking very likely he was right.
If we don’t hit recession territory this year, we’ll be very close to it. I think we’ll hit it.
svelteParticipant[quote=flu]The coronavirus is definitely going to hit the tourism industry and leisure travel. But come to think of it, I wonder how many people that count on AirBnb-ing or VRBOing their house are going to get screwed due to vacation/travel cancellations.
For example, SXSW was cancelled, Google IO was cancelled, lots of these venues were cancelled. It can’t be good for all the people that were hoping to AirBnb/Vrbo their homes like a hotel, versus more traditional leased properties with month/years leases.[/quote]
I had heard that only folks over 60 had to worry, so I wasn’t really worrying.
Then I read a quote from the Surgeon General. He said the average age of those dying is 80 and the average age of those needing “medical attention” is 60. Hold on there. the average age is 60? That means those under sixty need to worry also.
In addition, some of the folks I see in the hospital on the news are in their 30s and were healthy beforehand.
I must get 3 message a day from my employer on new restrictions at work. almost all conferences we host and that our folks attend have been canceled.
So…I must admit I too have adjusted a few things now. I’ve canceled all flights to other states, and have switched travel within California to be by car not plane.
That’s all I’ve done so far. No stocking up on food or toilet paper. Yet.
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