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Just read an article that household finances are still fine.  Sitting on a lot of cash.  If there is a problem coming it’s not likely to be from that part of the economy.

What is getting dicey is commercial.  The number of high rises in downtown LA that are underwater with high vacancy rates (avg 22.5%) is scary.  Some have sold at half their prior sales price over 10 years ago.  In SF,  Hilton Union Square,  Parc55, and Westfield Mall Union Square all have stopped making mortgage payments from what I read tonight (I haven’t verified).   Those are some big players in SF tourism!

If enough commercial defaults then banks will have to deal with the bad loans.   If the banks start collapsing, I’m not sure what happens next.  But it probably isn’t good.

If we have rain clouds on the horizon, that’s where I think they are.

 

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I should also point out that the S&P 500 has a p/e ratio of 25.12 as of today.  A good range is 20-25, so prices are at the high end and if we hit a speed bump, well we could be in for a downturn.  Not a crash, but a general reduction in stock prices.

Another favorite measurement is the Shiller p/e ratio (which looks back 10 years instead of 12 months) which is at 30.37 when a good range is 10-15.  We are way out of range on that one!  But given that we are wrapping up a period of high inflation, looking back 10 years could be misleading.

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” Here we are 3 years later and there can be no doubt cast about this post.”

Absolutely.  Did not come to pass.

Last week I was looking into how my portfolio did by year and for some reason from March 2020 to March 2021 it went up like 50%.  !!  Best year ever for me.  I’ll have to look back closer and see what I did!!

Here is what the SP500 has done since this thread started on June 2, 2020.   It would be hard to argue that cashing out would have been the right thing to do.  Very hard indeed.

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Could be what’s going on.  We went a looong time without seeing open house signs at all, but now they are on the curb when I drive by.

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Inventory has increased here in San Marcos (10 miles from coast).  Several homes for sale in my hood and haven’t seen that in a few years that I can recall.  Open houses have also returned.  They weren’t necessary before.

I think people are being more selective and thinking things through better instead of just jumping.

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Not sure why, but I thought of this this morning:

I had always pictured AfF as a tall, skinny, cleanshaven guy in my mind – not sure why.

I enjoyed all of his input into Piggington threads and his perspective on things.

My favorite:  it was late at night (around midnight if I’m not mistaken) and there were several of us piggs making comments on a thread.  Highly unusual for several of us to be online at that time.   The mood was lighthearted and reflective.  At some point I noticed the hour and posted “does anybody really know what time it is?  Does anybody really care?”   and AfF immediately posted a youtube clip of Chicago performing that song.   Good times!

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No.

I’ve been in this situation before and walked.   The house did eventually sell, but at a much lower price that reflected the cost of the repairs needed.   If you’re really fond of the house, you might remind the owner that they will now have to disclose the defect to the next purchaser as a last ditch effort to get them to reduce the price to compensate for repair costs.  But if they won’t, I’d walk.

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Glad you’re happy EP.  That’s what really counts.  Not what anyone else thinks.

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“OK well that was pretty easy… found a plugin to upload images. You still use the image icon, shown at the right in the image below.”

Thanks Rich!

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Saw this while driving the other day and couldn’t help but think of this thread.   Unfortunately about a half-hour after this photo an idiot driver wiped out the car I was in.  Worst accident I’ve ever been in.

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Very sorry to hear this.  My sympathies.

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“Unrelated. I bet some of you guys are wondering how I posted an image
I could tell you, but I would have to kill ya….”
Yeah – how DO I post an image?   Just found out I don’t know how!

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Looks like the SVB joyride may have been kicked off by a newsletter last month. It possibly put depositors on edge and when SVB decided to sell their bonds and issue stock, that was all it took for depositors to panic and withdraw their funds.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-11855685/Silicon-Valley-Bank-185-1-debt-asset-ratio-flagged-February-tech-experts-newsletter.html

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Federal may have extended the deadline but I don’t think state did.

I mailed a large dollar value set of bonds to the government a couple of years back. Very scary sticking all of that in the mail, but I insured it, tracked it, and crossed my fingers. Worked out fine.

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ha! just hitting refresh is working for me. I noticed a couple of days ago that it wouldn’t let me reply even after I logged in. Figured I’d take the lazy way out and wait until someone else found a solution. Thanks to the finder!

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