Pretty much the same for me. From the date of the original post through the end of 2021 I had an amazing run. Considering everything I own including real estate my net worth roughly tripled. I would not have wanted to miss that LOL.
The year of 2022 was horrible for me as it was for many others. My investment accounts lost around 20% that year though real estate made up much of that loss (even with the second half flash crash in real estate) for a net decline of about 5% across all assets.
But I just mostly stuck to what I do long term and changed very little in the second half and into this year. The investment accounts are up over 20% so far in 2023 and close to all time highs. That combined with the recovery in real estate from last years flash crash put my net worth at an all time high and 10% above where it ended 2021.
All things considered not much to complain about here. I like what I’m invested in going forward for the long term.
Just read an article that household finances are still fine. Sitting on a lot of cash. If there is a problem coming it’s not likely to be from that part of the economy.
What is getting dicey is commercial. The number of high rises in downtown LA that are underwater with high vacancy rates (avg 22.5%) is scary. Some have sold at half their prior sales price over 10 years ago. In SF, Hilton Union Square, Parc55, and Westfield Mall Union Square all have stopped making mortgage payments from what I read tonight (I haven’t verified). Those are some big players in SF tourism!
If enough commercial defaults then banks will have to deal with the bad loans. If the banks start collapsing, I’m not sure what happens next. But it probably isn’t good.
If we have rain clouds on the horizon, that’s where I think they are.
While i agree it’s a potential weakness, too many view commercial as office and to a lesser extent retail. There is so much more to it than that and even those won’t go to zero.
…and could be converted to apartments/condos to solve the housing shortage. But that takes time and in the interim there could be considerable turbulence.
I’m hoping the turbulence is minor and this week’s inflation numbers, etc look promising so we may be OK.
