[Stu949]

What refund?????

Wife and I pay $80,000 a year in state and federal taxes. We keep getting bent over.

Thank you, may I have another!!!

[Stu949]

What refund?????

Wife and I pay $80,000 a year in state and federal taxes. We keep getting bent over.

Thank you, may I have another!!!

[Stu949]

What refund?????

Wife and I pay $80,000 a year in state and federal taxes. We keep getting bent over.

Thank you, may I have another!!!

[Stu949]

What refund?????

Wife and I pay $80,000 a year in state and federal taxes. We keep getting bent over.

Thank you, may I have another!!!

[Stu949]

What refund?????

Wife and I pay $80,000 a year in state and federal taxes. We keep getting bent over.

Thank you, may I have another!!!

[Stu949]

Interesting post davelj.

On a side note and not directly related.

My father is still in the construction industry. He’s worked as a soils engineer for approx 40 years. Been through a couple of down cycles (90s – he was temporarily laid off but has stayed with the same company his entire life). I did a little work for his company throughout the years, but started doing small jobs when I was 16.

At 16, I was digging holes and helping out with soils tests in an around Irvine. Today, Standard Pacific has the start of a community, but obviously they’re having trouble selling. My point being that in that particular location, someone started researching the viability of building on that land some 12 years ago – with actual construction just starting last year. At the time, they were avocado and orange groves.

Granted, not all jobs start that far out, but my dad’s company has no jobs to bid on. He’s been in San Diego for the last 10 years, as they’ve done many of the big residential projects and many commercial projects you all see today.

Being that they do the soil testing and supervise the grading, they’re pretty much the first step or phase in the construction process.

There is nothing even on the horizon for them to bid on. Nothing, zilch, nada… The 90s was slow, but he said there was still work. This is one of the first times they’ve ever seen where there are virtually no commercial or residential projects planned at all. The only thing out there is government contracts, but there’s more red tape with bidding on those and they’re not in abundance. His firm stoped competing for them a few years back because they were flying high on the commercial/residential bubble.

Any sign of a turn around will start with the soils engineering firms. We hear a lot about starts and permits…Many of those permits had the soils work done months ago. Not that it is a surprise to anyone here, but the permits should see even more declines in the next 6 to 9 months. When the turnaround comes (whenever that happens), permits will lag the start of the soils grading by about 6 months to a year.

[Stu949]

Interesting post davelj.

On a side note and not directly related.

My father is still in the construction industry. He’s worked as a soils engineer for approx 40 years. Been through a couple of down cycles (90s – he was temporarily laid off but has stayed with the same company his entire life). I did a little work for his company throughout the years, but started doing small jobs when I was 16.

At 16, I was digging holes and helping out with soils tests in an around Irvine. Today, Standard Pacific has the start of a community, but obviously they’re having trouble selling. My point being that in that particular location, someone started researching the viability of building on that land some 12 years ago – with actual construction just starting last year. At the time, they were avocado and orange groves.

Granted, not all jobs start that far out, but my dad’s company has no jobs to bid on. He’s been in San Diego for the last 10 years, as they’ve done many of the big residential projects and many commercial projects you all see today.

Being that they do the soil testing and supervise the grading, they’re pretty much the first step or phase in the construction process.

There is nothing even on the horizon for them to bid on. Nothing, zilch, nada… The 90s was slow, but he said there was still work. This is one of the first times they’ve ever seen where there are virtually no commercial or residential projects planned at all. The only thing out there is government contracts, but there’s more red tape with bidding on those and they’re not in abundance. His firm stoped competing for them a few years back because they were flying high on the commercial/residential bubble.

Any sign of a turn around will start with the soils engineering firms. We hear a lot about starts and permits…Many of those permits had the soils work done months ago. Not that it is a surprise to anyone here, but the permits should see even more declines in the next 6 to 9 months. When the turnaround comes (whenever that happens), permits will lag the start of the soils grading by about 6 months to a year.

[Stu949]

I’ve got a 401K that I can’t do much with, so that will stay diversified in bonds,small and large cap, and international. I’m still in my 20s, so I’m not going to concern myself much with the fact that it may lose some significant value in the coming year or two.

For my other investment money, I’m preserving what money I have by investing in foreign currencies (Euro, Swiss, Swedish) and gold. I like the Merk Hard Currency fund, but the expense ratio is kind of high (1.3%). The fund is up 12%+ YTD, but it should be relatively low risk. No other fund like it though – the other dollar short funds are more risky, but could suit your needs (Pro Funds, Ryder, Templeton).

I also play around with a smaller amount of money. Right now I’m in energy but looking to possibly take some profits. I’ll play until the end of 2007, then probably go even more conservative with everything. Once the China/India bubbles pop, we’ll see a worldwide sell off. Not sure when it will happen, but just waiting like I am with real estate.

[Stu949]

I’ve got a 401K that I can’t do much with, so that will stay diversified in bonds,small and large cap, and international. I’m still in my 20s, so I’m not going to concern myself much with the fact that it may lose some significant value in the coming year or two.

For my other investment money, I’m preserving what money I have by investing in foreign currencies (Euro, Swiss, Swedish) and gold. I like the Merk Hard Currency fund, but the expense ratio is kind of high (1.3%). The fund is up 12%+ YTD, but it should be relatively low risk. No other fund like it though – the other dollar short funds are more risky, but could suit your needs (Pro Funds, Ryder, Templeton).

I also play around with a smaller amount of money. Right now I’m in energy but looking to possibly take some profits. I’ll play until the end of 2007, then probably go even more conservative with everything. Once the China/India bubbles pop, we’ll see a worldwide sell off. Not sure when it will happen, but just waiting like I am with real estate.

[Stu949]

I agree about TIPS – government inflation data is crap, so your TIPS are modest, at best, for inflation protection.

Is gold already in a bubble? I don’t think so, but I agree that its flucuations are not for everyone. I bought $5,000 worth of bullion at $425 an ounce back in 2004 – haven’t touched it since; except for on occasionl mining stock here or there. Yeah, you here some gold ads on the radio, but I don’t think gold is in a bubble until it is a topic at cocktail parties – I don’t see the mainstream kinfe catchers jumping on gold right now. I think calling a gold top right now is like calling a real estate top in 2003/2004 (depending on the area). You would’ve missed the two best years.

Been thinking about jumping on a couple of silver/gold miners if the overall stockmarket pulls back a little in the next few weeks. Maybe jump in on some miners prior to Ben’s next rate cut. Play it short term.

Stocks will probably head lower from here on out; however, the public will see sporadic gains and think the market is remaing healthy. Long term, I think you’ll see a gradual decline in equities.

I’m looking into a mixed currency index for inflation protection as well. Silver/gold; other currencies (euro, yen, and other Scandinavian currencies); and pure commodities plays (sugar, coffe, cotton) if you can get into it – tough for the average investor though.

[Stu949]

How appropriate, and error occured when I tried to send the following:

Since you guys are “pumping” money into the jittery financial system, how about “pumping” some money my way. My wife and I make $250,000 a year, pay $90,000 a year in taxes, yet we can’t buy a suitable home. How about giving us $200,000 for a down payment on a home so I can get into a 30 year fixed. After all, we’re merely looking to buy a home that we can live in – not to flip or profit. Thanks for your time.

[Stu949]

How appropriate, and error occured when I tried to send the following:

Since you guys are “pumping” money into the jittery financial system, how about “pumping” some money my way. My wife and I make $250,000 a year, pay $90,000 a year in taxes, yet we can’t buy a suitable home. How about giving us $200,000 for a down payment on a home so I can get into a 30 year fixed. After all, we’re merely looking to buy a home that we can live in – not to flip or profit. Thanks for your time.

[Stu949]

How appropriate, and error occured when I tried to send the following:

Since you guys are “pumping” money into the jittery financial system, how about “pumping” some money my way. My wife and I make $250,000 a year, pay $90,000 a year in taxes, yet we can’t buy a suitable home. How about giving us $200,000 for a down payment on a home so I can get into a 30 year fixed. After all, we’re merely looking to buy a home that we can live in – not to flip or profit. Thanks for your time.

[Stu949]

To Alex_angel:

I get this a lot, “Lots of envious people that hope bad things happens to others so they can benefit.” During many conversations with people from all walks of life, I declared in 2004 (before I was on Piggington) that the financing ponzi scheme was not sustainable in the long term.

I never hope that bad things happen to people, I just try to recognize trends and projections for what they are… Hoping things will happen will not get you far in life. People always say that I hope home prices will come down. That is the furthest thing from the truth. My analysis and research has led me believe that home prices will decline. When I first started my research, I had no emotion about housing. I didn’t make much money and buying a house wasn’t even a thought at the time. During the last three years, things have changed – I can now afford to buy a SFR, but prices are still too high. Things are what they are…hoping is for uneducated, ignorant, amateurs.

[Stu949]

To Alex_angel:

I get this a lot, “Lots of envious people that hope bad things happens to others so they can benefit.” During many conversations with people from all walks of life, I declared in 2004 (before I was on Piggington) that the financing ponzi scheme was not sustainable in the long term.

I never hope that bad things happen to people, I just try to recognize trends and projections for what they are… Hoping things will happen will not get you far in life. People always say that I hope home prices will come down. That is the furthest thing from the truth. My analysis and research has led me believe that home prices will decline. When I first started my research, I had no emotion about housing. I didn’t make much money and buying a house wasn’t even a thought at the time. During the last three years, things have changed – I can now afford to buy a SFR, but prices are still too high. Things are what they are…hoping is for uneducated, ignorant, amateurs.

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