[spdrun]

Real question is, you’re in Southern California. Why in the purple tap-dancing fawk would you choose a hardtop over a convertible?

Fraidy-cat? Mrrrraaaaaooww!

[spdrun]

Concerned? Elated! 2008 was fun.

[spdrun]

A more conservative Fed means HIGHER rates, not lower, since they’ll raise to keep inflation below 2%.

[spdrun]

And the current piece of white trash in the AG’s office is a big fan. At least Eric Holder made an effort to fight it.

[spdrun]

In 2012, few people here assumed that the market in SD would rise 80-100% (nominal) from bottom by 2016.

In 2007, few people assumed that prices would fall 40-50% from peak.

All it would take for the market to fall a lot is for the market to fall a little. Falling prices = loss of confidence = more people selling = supply >> demand.

The reason inventory is low right now is that owners are holding hoping for even higher prices — if prices fall a little or even flatten, this goes away.

Psychology, not rationality.

[spdrun]

A significant % of SD’s population might not be able to afford to buy, but still drives rental prices, which in turn control valuation metrics.

Nutjobs — yeah, there’s enough crazy to go around this year and then some.

[spdrun]

You’re assuming that nominal pricing of anything is linear, which it is often not. Especially when we’ve gone from no-drama Obama in charge to the drama queen in chief with his retinue of clowns.

A significant % of SD County’s population is very worried right about now, and worried people don’t like to sign long-term leases, spend money, or invest in property with family. It’s depressing, because the situation of most immigrants (legal or not) isn’t much different than my family’s 40 years ago.

Question is, will the left side of the aisle do everything in its power to provoke chaos before the 2018 and 2020 elections? It’s telling that Yellen (Obama appointee) is yipping about raising rates, even with crummy growth estimates for Q1-17:

http://seekingalpha.com/article/4053152-u-s-economic-growth-slowing-q1

A recession might be seen as “less damage” than GOP being successful.

[spdrun]

Prices increased mostly in certain cities, not middle America that’s the core of the GOP constituency. I’d argue that there’s a certain part of the GOP that WANTS to punish residents of coastal cities. As long as the national average isn’t decreasing (by much), they can let SD, LA, and SF fry.

There are also people on the other side who are interested in provoking a recession before 2018 to flip Congress and make life hard for Donnie.

Thirdly, a 7-10% of SD County’s population are people who could be directly affected by immigration policy, hitting rental demand at the lower end.

[spdrun]

Plenty of people use desktops, but desktops don’t actually use that much power. 50/100W average, and LCD screens use less than old CRTs.

Your average 15A outlet can handle over 10 of them no sweat.

If I ever move to SD, I’d buy a house in an older non-posh non-HOA area so I can have a good, old-fashioned clothes line. Perfect climate for air drying clothes, and it’s a lot more efficient than a power dryer.

[spdrun]

And giving people with good income but no assets 0% down loans (FHA/VA) — bank pays the down payment — after a 100% run up in prices, at 3.5% interest doesn’t qualify as crazy?

[spdrun]

Negative to profiting off police overreach.

I’d sooner buy the home of an ICE agent who got into some deep trouble 🙂 And happily buy a home of a Trump supporter affected by high interest rates and rent it to immigrants.

I dislike authority too much to want to profit from their abuses. And I prefer most immigrants to locally-born Americans, less of an entitled, provincial attitude.

As far as the Trumpets whom I’ve met, a lot of them aren’t unemployed. They’re employed and whine about having to pay taxes to support those pesky blacks and immigrants (they think that “those people” get everything for free), and are deathly afraid of losing their children in a terrorist attack. In their eyes, the people who protest police brutality are rioters and children who should respect authority more.

[spdrun]

If the electrical and plumbing are copper, why change it? Only change it if it’s aluminum and PEX.

[spdrun]

HSR isn’t a bad idea, it’s just being badly mismanaged by the state of CA.

Here’s how it should be done:
(1) Solicit bids from existing, experienced contractors (SNCF, cough, ahem) for fixed-price contracts.
(2) Convince the Feds to allow a waiver to allow use of world-market trains, not US regulatory-specific overweight junque. Should actually be EASIER under Trump.
(3) Start building north from San Diego and south from San Francisco.
(4) Use existing routes when possible that can be bought out, electrified, and elevated if needed.

[spdrun]

You mean the pets.com economy?

[spdrun]

The catalyst is almost never apocalyptic, more usually cyclical. Neither 2001 nor 2008 started with an apocalyptic event like what you describe.

[Author]

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