Got some deep out of money S&P500 puts

[gzz]

Sept 2017 180’s. They were about $90 each. If the market falls by half they will be worth $6,000 each, if it falls by 1/3 they will be $2000. Not likely to happen, but some things that have more than a 1 in 500 chance happening this year:

North Korea invades the South, threatens to nuke any attempt to stop it

Carrington Event

a dirty bomb hitting a major city or two

war with Iran closing down major oil and gas supply routes and missles hitting Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states

Huge earthquake causing a trillion in damages and bankrupting insurance companies and reinsurers, chain reaction collapse of other financial companies.

Lots of other unknown unknowns. Overall I am an optimist and bullish, but i pick these up every 6 months just in case, usually on a day like today when the market does very well.

[spdrun]

The catalyst is almost never apocalyptic, more usually cyclical. Neither 2001 nor 2008 started with an apocalyptic event like what you describe.

[no_such_reality]

Betting 00 on the roulette table has a 1 in 38 chance and is worth $3150 on a $90 bet.

[gzz]

If I played roulette it would be on a wheel with only 0, no 00. I’ve seen both.

[millennial]

[quote=gzz]If I played roulette it would be on a wheel with only 0, no 00. I’ve seen both.[/quote]Ive only seen that in Monte Carlo. Closest odds against house outside of blackjack

[Hatfield]

[quote=millennial][quote=gzz]Closest odds against house outside of blackjack[/quote]

Craps odds bet?

[millennial]

You’re right, but it depends on the max odds you can put on the back line. You still have to put your frontline/pass bet which only gives you even payout.

[gzz]

You got me to google this. In europe 37 is more standard (but I remember 38 in the small casinos in spain). in the USA 38 is standard, but 37 is common in high roller rooms in Vegas. Barona is the only place in California that has 37. Vegas Sands has 39, marked 0 00 and S for an extra rip off experience.

[gzz]

Spdrun, 29 and 87 crashes were sudden even if not apocalyptic.

A natural disaster if big enough could knock out insurance companies, which themselves would have to dump assets to make payments, and have bonds which could lose most or all of their value, causing a financial meltdown.

In 2015 the Chinese market fell about 40% from July to October. The US market never had the crazy run up that China did beforehand however.

I am not predicting any of this, and my put gains would far from offset my equity losses. But in the bull market now some insurance is nice and seems pretty cheap.

[Author]

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