[spdrun]

Well sure, but the relevant changes would have had to have been made in 2004-2005 at the very latest 🙂

[spdrun]

There’s always the possibility of the unexpected. Say the US being drawn into another war, a quake hitting a populated part of CA, or China imploding, for example. There’s no one force that has unlimited control over markets.

It’s also interesting that real-estate markets are very local. Two years ago when San Diego was at its nadir, people were saying that the New Jersey market was improving. Well, two years later, foreclosures are finally being dumped onto the NJ market, keeping it low and probably allowing prices to drop this winter.

[spdrun]

I’ve actually been in the market and making money — let’s say that scalp-trading individual stocks on bad news whenever possible limits potential losses due to the entire market failing.

Fire in a 787 in some shitehole country in Africa? BA down a few %? Buy, let the sheeple take their losses. Fiery accident involving a Tesla S, TSLA down 5%? Buy, sell when the dumb sheep are done bleating. Accident on a Carnival Cruise ship…? If it bleeds, burns, or smells like raw sewage, it makes money once the idiots are done carping.

I go to bed every night praying for another “Lehman event” because it would be the buying opportunity of a lifetime. The ultimate opportunity to exploit a bunch of overreactive ninnies.

You’re assuming that the dot.com crash of early 2001, the 2008 crash, etc were truly preventable.

[spdrun]

Here’s hoping for Q4 earnings to disappoint in mid-January and the bickering over the budget to flare up again. Those two things might be the catalysts needed to get the Big Tumble(tm) started.

This being said, momentum in the market has slowed down a LOT since this summer/spring. I’m not even sure if closing prices are a good indicator, since deals take a while to close.

If you look at asking prices, they’re steady or falling a bit at this point. Maybe not in CV, but in SD Co as a whole.

PS – why the f would you be happy as an existing owner, unless you’re planning to ATM the place and invest in rentals elsewhere? An $100,000 rise in house value and a grapefruit still gets you your house and a grapefruit.

[spdrun]

Hope. Springs. Eternal.

Just like the old guy down the street who was trying to pimp an old, beat down, Mercedes 450SL for $10 grand — the for sale sign was on for about a year before he either lowered the price or found a sucker.

[spdrun]

You can still likely use a higher cost basis, it’s not as if the landscaping has to be the only improvement over your ownership of the house.

[spdrun]

Home prices are only crazy in certain areas. I still periodically see condo listings in the $200-250 psf range in decent parts of SD. If you’re starting out your career, why not buy a 1/1 or a 2/1 depending on your salary and keep it as a rental when you start a family?

Bay Area == too many people chasing too little money. Like the stereotype of Hollywood. A lot of actors and musicians had to go back to NY to make it because the signal-to-noise ratio in LA was too low.

[spdrun]

Inventory has gone up, rates are still higher than this Spring, it’s no longer Spring. Good luck to them.

Speaking to the condo market in non-CV areas where I’m looking, I’m seeing even well-priced stuff sit for 7-14 days, whereas in the Spring you’d have five offers within two days.

[spdrun]

Ding, ding, ding! We have a winner!

Translation: “If politicians had the fucking balls to painfully euthanize the monster known as the private insurance industry.”

[spdrun]

Obamacare was a Republican idea (aka Romneycare), last I checked. If we had actual cooperation in DC, instead of a balance of terror, we’d have got single-payer or a public option.

[spdrun]

Uh, what?

One is a type of physical asset, the other is a share in a company.

[spdrun]

The law has been in effect for less than a year. Big banks are slow beasts to change.

Why should they be “required” to review anything other than whether the owner is making payments? A loan mod should exist as an option only as a courtesy, and should only be used in cases of genuine hardship (illness, death/illness in the family, basically).

“Loss of home value due to market conditions” or even an episode of unemployment (you should have some savings) shouldn’t be enough reason for a modification. I know people like that — bought a house with cash back on closing, 0% down in 2007, house’s value went down 50%, lost their job (temporarily) and went whinging to the bank for a loan mod. Successfully.

Those kinds of people don’t deserve to “own” a home.

[spdrun]

For one thing, they can’t foreclose when an application for a loan mod has been submitted, and they’re required to try to modify.

Betting that the borrowers can tie things up in the “loan mod” stage a long time, and with no threat of foreclosure to push them to cooperate with the bank, they can live basically for free while the mod is in process.

For another, the “single point of contact” rule may require structural changes in the lending departments of the big banks, and those take time.

This is unlike in NJ where it takes a while for foreclosure cases to make it to court, but once they do, if the judge sees a history of non-payment, he’ll allow the sheriff’s sale to go ahead. Attempted modification or not.

[spdrun]

And what makes you think that banks won’t start to foreclose? The best explanation I’ve heard is that “The Homeowners’ Bill of Rights Makes CA a judicial state in all but name.” Look at NJ and NY — the foreclosures delayed by 2-3 years by courts are starting to enter the market. We have 2x the inventory on Homepath as this spring, a whole lot of auctions as well.

Secondly, people move. If they’re underwater and can rent the house for more than expenses, all well and good. If not, and they can’t take the extra monthly expense, short-sale, here we come, wheeeeee….. Besides, not everyone wants (or is cut out) to be a landlord.

[spdrun]

Lol.

First problem:
“Not from NY.”
Second problem:
Thinking that a million bucks a year is middle class in NYC.

Looks like a big hag of fail got schooled, hard 🙂

[Author]

Posts