FED: Why Are Housing Inventories Low?

[SD Squatter]

FED finally is getting it (after the fact):

A remarkable feature of the boom was the unprecedented rise in homeownership rates. Younger households became more willing or more able to buy homes (see Doms and Krainer 2007). Lending terms and conditions eased substantially, allowing less creditworthy borrowers into the market. These trends went into reverse during the housing crisis and the homeownership rate has fallen. With fewer households purchasing houses, inventory has shifted from the for-sale to the for-rent category.

Why Are Housing Inventories Low?

The rise in the “for rent” category in figure 2 seems unprecedented. Does anyone have San Diego data?

[Coronita]

Renting: It’s tougher out there

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2013/Jul/18/apartments-vacancy-rents/

Projections

http://www.biggerpockets.com/renewsblog/2011/12/28/rental-outlook-2012-the-good-times-roll-on/

For SD, projections some say rents rise 31% by 2015…

Mira Mesa is absolutely on fire right now for attached markets, especially 1/1’s…

I put in a test ad for a rental, got like 7 callbacks in 24 hrs last week. I forgot to take down the add, and there is a contact from someone still each day, sometimes twice a day….

I think commercial landlords are smarter than the average bear. That’s why you see a big rental community being built at the end of 56/15 in MM and also a big luxury community being built in Torrey Hills (Carmel Valley)….

[spdrun]

Unless incomes will go up 31% in the next 14 months, I highly doubt that figure. Incidentally, when I was renting my unit, I got quite a few callbacks, but maybe only 1/3 to 1/2 of those responded when I got back to them.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]Unless incomes will go up 31% in the next 14 months, I highly doubt that figure. Incidentally, when I was renting my unit, I got quite a few callbacks, but maybe only 1/3 to 1/2 of those responded when I got back to them.[/quote]

Most of my emails were H1B tech workers, so I’m sure they would be excellent tenants… Location you know..

[spdrun]

Or really horrible tenants — once their contract expires, they can jet back home, leave the apartment a complete toilet, and good luck collecting damages.

[paramount]

This years H1B’s started on October 1, 2013 I believe.

I think the number was either 65,000 or 85,000 H1B’s.

I think there were some other categories as well.

[Coronita]

.

[paramount]

Talk about the Fed, 10/22/13: Disappointing unemployment report, other not so good economic news. And yet the market rises, epic distortions.

[all]

H1B tenant is great. Indian EB3 more so. They might be stuck in process for a decade. I took the kids to see the place where we lived 2007-2009. The Indian H1B family that was there when we moved in is still there.

[Coronita]

[quote=all]H1B tenant is great. Indian EB3 more so. They might be stuck in process for a decade. I took the kids to see the place where we lived 2007-2009. The Indian H1B family that was there when we moved in is still there.[/quote]

My experience has been the same.

1. high income
2. high credit score
3. pay on time
4. zero troubles

[Jazzman]

This is a pretty academic paper, and it’s not clear to me the researcher has his/her feet on terra firma. Take this statement:

At the same time though, the level of house prices is by far the most important cyclical variable that influences the inventory of homes for sale.

What about builders and new homes?

And this statement:

…Las Vegas, Miami, and Phoenix, the total inventory of homes for rent is approaching that of homes for sale. …the impact of investors in these markets should not be overstated.

The impact of investors cannot be overstated, or should not understated? These are the only three places that corrected and investors flocked to them. Las Vegas saw a 29% increase in one year to July 2013. That party is, I believe, now over. I have seen up to 50% percent of inventory with multiple price reductions. There is a distinct pattern emerging in many of the listings that looks like investor activity. Supply is rebounding, which is what you’d expect, as hedge funds offload in what now seems like a declining market. They sucked up the supply creating the vacuum, pushing up prices and now want to cash in their chips. I’d say investors have had a big influence on this market.

I just couldn’t make sense of this statement:

The decline in homes for sale is very closely linked with the large downward shift in the homeownership rate in these markets. It is impossible to say though whether declining sales are pushing down homeownership rates or falling homeownership is pushing down sales…

I think that what they are trying to say, is that the desire to own a home is falling. But we know that credit, unemployment, affordability, inventory, where we are in the cycle, consumer confidence, demographics, urban vs rural, and a host of other factors are influential in the buoyancy, or otherwise, of the housing market.

[CA renter]

Agree with Jazzman, but think the investor-speculators have had a HUGE impact all across the country. When the Fed stomps on interest rates they way they have over the past 5+ (!!!) years, money will end up being squeezed into everything else. Since housing was seen as distressed, that’s where the speculative money went. It remains to be seen how and when (and if!) this unwinds.

[spdrun]

The best thing that could happen is that QE3 continues, but will simply become old news. Fed would lose control of interest rates, and some of Zimbabwe Ben’s asset-inflationary bad work would be unwound. Better now than later when the fall will be even harder.

Bonus points when Q4 earnings (affected by shutdown) start flowing in three months and are compared with stock valuations. Add to that the Jan 15 deadline for another shutdown, and we might have interesting times ahead!

And yes, I know that stocks =/= housing, but the two are intimately related, at least emotionally.

[The-Shoveler]

It’s not about housing or stocks, it’s about local municipalities Tax base and retirement pension funds that are reliant on stocks and housing.

If either go bust anytime in the next few years,

local municipalities will be dropping like flies.

[spdrun]

Let them consolidate and/or stop paying their blue-collar employees $100k+ per year. If some overpaid cops and trash collectors leave the state and move to Alabama, good riddance to bad union garbage.

[Author]

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