[sdrealtor]

One more thought. Many of the overpriced listings are fishing expectations. If a house is worth 1 million they want 1.2 and once it’s worth 1.2 they want 1.4. When prices are rising rapidly the fishers naturally wait for the market to settle before casting a line. It has no connection to being an indicator of a bullish market. It’s just the wonky small segment of odd people doing what they do

[sdrealtor]

There are plenty. You are too focused on one tiny market that is not a bellwether

[sdrealtor]

The party continues

New listings 4 (6) –

New Pendings of 5 (6) –

Closed sales at 5 –

Current inventory at 7 (7) with median of 1.075M (770K)

MM continues its steady climb. INventory is a little worse than last as things really tightened up earlier here than other markets. Its a more slow and orderly process as housing is so homogenous and there are few high end properties compared to the traditional homes but there is no mistaking what is happening. OF note we have our first M instead of a K on the median home price on the market

[sdrealtor]

You got me curious so I checked bill and I was off a little. I just have an auto payment of $50/month and once a year or so I reconcile what I owe them or skip payment. Its a bit higher this month as I had a bunch of company. My house is closer to 3K sf and my lot is 11,000 sf. I dont have those monthly sewer charges. I Checked and they are in my tax bill ($378 this year). All in it looks like we arent far off

System Access charge $39.44
SDCWA Infrastructure Access Charge $3.98
Usage (4 units at $3.39) $13.56

Total bill is $56.42

Most recent gas bill was $87. Its much higher than last July due to higher rates and it being winter (gas heat)

[sdrealtor]

Drought tolerant landscape and two in the household. That was last July but it has increased and is now about $50 due to the higher system access charges. I’m in the Olivenhain municipal water district.

[sdrealtor]

Traffic seems better to me but gotta be due to COVID also. The construction is causing delays also. On a weekend it can take me 30 minutes to get from S Carlsbad to 78 due to it. Looking forward to that section getting completed. Should go much quicker as much straighter except between Cannon and Tamarack

[sdrealtor]

That’s great that the market is so strong there the builder throws in upgrades worth $50k and you didn’t have to pay to landscape your own property. Here I’m down and out California if you’re unlucky enough to be one of the few on the waiting list to get a house all they throw in is thanks for coming. And nice of you to omit the 4.2% unemployment rate here which is rapidly dropping. I did not omit the cost of my solar I said it was long since paid off which means that it has already paid for itself and is returning the equivalent of close to $4000 in savings every year.

EP your math skills are usually good also. But I’m going to have to correct something because you did not compound that return. If it was 20% over two years compounded twice it would now be worth over 800 which as you said it is not. It’s actually more like 15%.

While our markets are appreciating 30% so it’s not even close to what we are getting. If you had what we had you would be close to 950k. And our taxes are a very small price to pay for that appreciation. Over the last two years My average weekly appreciation has been more than my annual tax bill. My taxes are about 1/3rd of 1% of my current value due to prop 13.

Unlike Utah we are constantly birthing new unicorn tech companies and now even have them in small towns like Encinitas. The blue line on the trolley opened and ridership is soaring. They just opened 9 more miles of car pool lanes on the 5 freeway last week with more coming. Things are absolutely blossoming here and there looks to be no retreat in sight.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=EconProf]Thanks sdr for keeping this old thread alive. I still like to keep up with SD RE trends on Piggington.
Re your comments, yes it can get cold here, and warm in the summers, although our elevation keeps us better off than nearby Vegas.
I looked up official average St. George temperature highs and lows and rainfall for February: average daytime high 59, nighttime low 37. Brutal! 3 days with precipitation.
For March, 68, 43, and 4 days of precipitation.
That must account for our awful utility bills on our 2550 SF house: January water + el bill: $170.24. Gas bill: 97.28.
In hot July, el + water = 213.19. (Combined because the City collects for both). sdr, care to tell us what your July numbers were?[/quote]

My water bill was about $40 as I have beautiful drought tolerant landscape. People take pictures of it all the time. My gas was $35. I have no electric. My solar is long paid off. My house is bigger than yours

[sdrealtor]

[quote=EconProf]Now about our RE…hard to accept Redfin’s claim our home prices are down 3% YOY, since all other reports say 20% or so. Could be because Redfin does not hold constant the size or quality of homes sold. So more small houses or condos would yield that misleading figure.
I can only speak for my own experience of moving last April into our new house for $556,000. Am now refinancing and the appraisal came in at $730,000. The refi will enable me to add to my stock of rental condos (3 currently).
PS: our house price was set in the previous July, so appreciation was not as large as it appears.[/quote]

Stats are stats. As you noted your price was set two years ago and it appears the appreciation happened the first year. Also you bought new, how much more did you spend to get it move in ready. I’d guess about $50k but may be more or less

Liquidating all your San Diego real estate 2 to 3 years ago has likely already cost you well over $1 million. But you do get the joy of living in a red state while we suffer in a prosperous blue state. My next-door neighbor made a similar choice and thought he made a killing. He left in June and his house has already gone up around 400 K. Such is life. I hope you are enjoying the time with your family. It has come at a very high price but those years are priceless and you can’t get time back

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]You missed one major reason prices shot up also. After living through COVID a lot of people’s preferences have changed. People got used to spending more time at home and want nicer homes. That’s unlikely to revert[/quote]

Is that really your best counter-argument for why home prices won’t correct post-covid?[/quote]

Nice straw man. Never said anything about them not correcting. It’s one reason they won’t correct as much as you think. There are plenty of others[/quote]

I don’t have any particular prediction other than pre-covid 2020 values is a logical starting point for correction. Beyond that who knows, some markets will correct more/less than others as you always point out. If Fed pivots again and ignores inflation, who knows what will happen. If I’ve learned anything about investing from the last 13 years, it is don’t fight the Fed.[/quote]

What I was talking about last year that you said I was making up. Carlsbad has highest appreciation and even more Meaningful as one of the highest cost markets. Everything was going up everywhere just here faster

https://fox5sandiego.com/news/business/cities-with-the-most-expensive-homes-in-san-diego-metro-area/?fbclid=IwAR2c7HWl2rD-gAqn_o7_a7ffr8TqYLq0A_6jvNLbXSi9ShX6M4tbifjS4Ig

[sdrealtor]

Now you are moonwalking. You said they have to go back to pre COVID. They don’t and are extremely unlikely too. Here is yet another reason. Real estate values are very sticky on the downward side and it takes a lot of time for them to adjust downward. The passage of time heals a lot of wounds and allows inflation to blunt a lot of what you expect. Lather rinse repeat and rent

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]You missed one major reason prices shot up also. After living through COVID a lot of people’s preferences have changed. People got used to spending more time at home and want nicer homes. That’s unlikely to revert[/quote]

Is that really your best counter-argument for why home prices won’t correct post-covid?[/quote]

Nice straw man. Never said anything about them not correcting. It’s one reason they won’t correct as much as you think. There are plenty of others

[sdrealtor]

You missed one major reason prices shot up also. After living through COVID a lot of people’s preferences have changed. People got used to spending more time at home and want nicer homes. That’s unlikely to revert

[sdrealtor]

Heading over for an oil change. 11

[sdrealtor]

SFR’s around me would have to drop at least 40%. During the bubble bust they went down less than 25%. Seems to be saying a singificantly bigger downturn then 2007 to 2011

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