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  • February 24, 2022 at 7:00 PM #823948
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    SFR’s around me would have to drop at least 40%. During the bubble bust they went down less than 25%. Seems to be saying a singificantly bigger downturn then 2007 to 2011

    February 24, 2022 at 9:35 PM #823949
    Anonymous
    Guest

    [quote=XBoxBoy][quote=deadzone]
    The Nasdaq still has a long way to retrace just to get to pre-covid numbers.[/quote]

    Yeah, that’s true. QQQ’s are probably about $100 above their pre-covid level, so another 30%. SPYs about the same, maybe only 20%. And north country real estate would need to drop more than 30% to get to pre-covid levels I suspect.

    Which leads me to wonder, are you predicting that things have another 30% to drop from here, or are you just saying, “Things will go down from here, but anyone who bought stocks or real estate and has held if for over two years will still be ahead.” Curious minds want to know.[/quote]

    Well since all Covid related asset price gains, stocks, RE, etc. were completely artificial (Thanks to Fed printing 4 plus trillion dollars) it is a logical assumption they will be reversed at a minimum to pre-Covid levels given all of the Covid related programs will soon be over.

    February 25, 2022 at 6:39 AM #823950
    Coronita
    Participant

    [quote=deadzone][quote=XBoxBoy][quote=deadzone]
    The Nasdaq still has a long way to retrace just to get to pre-covid numbers.[/quote]

    Yeah, that’s true. QQQ’s are probably about $100 above their pre-covid level, so another 30%. SPYs about the same, maybe only 20%. And north country real estate would need to drop more than 30% to get to pre-covid levels I suspect.

    Which leads me to wonder, are you predicting that things have another 30% to drop from here, or are you just saying, “Things will go down from here, but anyone who bought stocks or real estate and has held if for over two years will still be ahead.” Curious minds want to know.[/quote]

    Well since all Covid related asset price gains, stocks, RE, etc. were completely artificial (Thanks to Fed printing 4 plus trillion dollars) it is a logical assumption they will be reversed at a minimum to pre-Covid levels given all of the Covid related programs will soon be over.[/quote]

    So just to help people out here…You believe…err…expect with conviction that both stock market and San Diego real estate prices will correct back to pre-covid prices, right?

    Can you repeat your conviction of this certainty today?

    February 25, 2022 at 7:50 AM #823952
    Anonymous
    Guest

    Yes I absolutely believe that, it is logical given the only reason those prices shot up the last two years were due to various Covid policies, most notably Fed money printing, PPP loans, Stimmies, Mortgage and rent moratoriums, historic low interest rates, work from home, etc.

    Every one of the above influences has started to reverse and if you believe Covid is over, from a government policy perspective, will continue to reverse or expire.

    By far the biggest contributor to this is Fed QE/money printing. So personally I’m not going to bet the farm on anything. They say they are going to raise interest rates starting in March, and also start winding down balance sheet, most notably MBS purchases starting in March. Market seems to believe it so far. But I won’t believe it until it happens.

    Fed has proven consistently that their #1 mandate is to inflate stock and RE prices above all else. They realize (correctly) that our economy is totally reliant on wealth effect. Without it, our economy will implode. That’s why they kept up QE constantly since 2009, even though the recovery was complete by about 2013 or so.

    February 25, 2022 at 9:09 AM #823953
    Coronita
    Participant

    [quote=deadzone]Yes I absolutely believe that, it is logical given the only reason those prices shot up the last two years were due to various Covid policies, most notably Fed money printing, PPP loans, Stimmies, Mortgage and rent moratoriums, historic low interest rates, work from home, etc.

    Every one of the above influences has started to reverse and if you believe Covid is over, from a government policy perspective, will continue to reverse or expire.

    By far the biggest contributor to this is Fed QE/money printing. So personally I’m not going to bet the farm on anything. They say they are going to raise interest rates starting in March, and also start winding down balance sheet, most notably MBS purchases starting in March. Market seems to believe it so far. But I won’t believe it until it happens.

    Fed has proven consistently that their #1 mandate is to inflate stock and RE prices above all else. They realize (correctly) that our economy is totally reliant on wealth effect. Without it, our economy will implode. That’s why they kept up QE constantly since 2009, even though the recovery was complete by about 2013 or so.[/quote]

    Just wanted to double check again. Do you really think things will crash and burn? Like almost definite? Both the stock market and real estate market? Can we cant your confirmation for this afternoon too?

    February 25, 2022 at 9:54 AM #823954
    Anonymous
    Guest

    is reverting to pre-covid bubble highs really crashing and burning? Those are your words, not mine.

    Nothing is certain in this world. All depends on what the Fed does. They control this 100%.

    February 25, 2022 at 10:38 AM #823955
    Coronita
    Participant

    [quote=deadzone]is reverting to pre-covid bubble highs really crashing and burning? Those are your words, not mine.

    Nothing is certain in this world. All depends on what the Fed does. They control this 100%.[/quote]

    But you do think we will see a correction to pre-covid stock market and real estate right?
    Can you say this with conviction at exactly at 12:45PST right before closing bell today?

    Come on deadzone… Go deadzone!!! Let’s push for +1000 dow by closing bell today.

    Please…Say we are definitely going to havea serious correction back to pre-covid letter at 12:45pm. Pretty please.

    February 25, 2022 at 11:12 AM #823956
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    You missed one major reason prices shot up also. After living through COVID a lot of people’s preferences have changed. People got used to spending more time at home and want nicer homes. That’s unlikely to revert

    February 25, 2022 at 11:41 AM #823957
    an
    Participant

    [quote=sdrealtor]You missed one major reason prices shot up also. After living through COVID a lot of people’s preferences have changed. People got used to spending more time at home and want nicer homes. That’s unlikely to revert[/quote]
    That’s transitory too

    February 25, 2022 at 12:23 PM #823958
    Anonymous
    Guest

    I’m not going to support your day trading habit FLU. Shouldn’t you be at work right now, writing code or something?

    February 25, 2022 at 12:24 PM #823959
    Anonymous
    Guest

    [quote=sdrealtor]You missed one major reason prices shot up also. After living through COVID a lot of people’s preferences have changed. People got used to spending more time at home and want nicer homes. That’s unlikely to revert[/quote]

    Is that really your best counter-argument for why home prices won’t correct post-covid?

    February 25, 2022 at 12:30 PM #823960
    Coronita
    Participant

    [quote=deadzone]I’m not going to support your day trading habit FLU.[/quote]

    I don’t day trade. But just to clarify, you think the stock market will go significant down, right? Can you say that one more time before closing bell?
    We’re pretty close to +1000 dow to day, and you can help push it over…

    [quote]
    Shouldn’t you be at work right now, writing code or something?
    [/quote]

    I’m the department head. I don’t need to write code. I have people that do that. I just need to send emails and direct and collect my bigger paycheck…

    [img_assist|nid=27527|title=email|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=500]
    ….
    …

    Shouldn’t you be back in the office, deadzone, working and not wasting time on the internet? I mean, people that work in the office are suppose to be more focused and efficient and not waste time using company resources checking out a finance blog, right?

    February 25, 2022 at 12:32 PM #823961
    Anonymous
    Guest

    Yes, middle management!
    Reminds me of one of my favorite Office Space scenes..

    February 25, 2022 at 12:35 PM #823962
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    [quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor]You missed one major reason prices shot up also. After living through COVID a lot of people’s preferences have changed. People got used to spending more time at home and want nicer homes. That’s unlikely to revert[/quote]

    Is that really your best counter-argument for why home prices won’t correct post-covid?[/quote]

    Nice straw man. Never said anything about them not correcting. It’s one reason they won’t correct as much as you think. There are plenty of others

    February 25, 2022 at 12:36 PM #823963
    Coronita
    Participant

    [quote=deadzone]Yes, middle management!
    Reminds me of one of my favorite Office Space scenes..

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=m4OvQIGDg4I%5B/quote%5D

    Get back to work, worker bee. Chop chop. Remember, expect your butt to be in your office seat, because we can keep better tabs on you! Worker smarter more efficient!

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