Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
sdrealtor
ParticipantYou talk about data but never provide any. You present arguments that make no sense.
Pro Tip: Higher income folks dont rent U-hauls
Here is some data
https://www.bls.gov/regions/mountain-plains/summary/blssummary_stgeorge.pdf
Wages 34% below national average
Top Employment sectors
Transportation (trucking)
Education and Health Services (non profit much of it government!!)
Leisure and hospitality (low wage waiters, cooks, busboys and dishwashers)
Government (more government!!)
Mining (digging holes)
Noticeably absent – Financial, Tech/Info services, Manufacturing
And nice of you to mention Phoenix, Las Vegas and Texas which are the 3 markets showing soft real estate markets in the country
People leave, people come. Ive been reading that same “everyone is leaving CA” article that gets dragged out periodically for the last 30 years. Prices are high so some cant hang and others who didnt plan take the money to fund a retirement. The winners stay and more come. The truckers, miners and dishwashers are heading to St George where wages are almost 34% below the national average with no growth industries. Moving there is a dead end. Give it a few years and you’ll have all the things you fled in spades
And you refuted none of what I said with data because you cant
ParticipantThis could be the most poorly constructed case you’ve ever come up with.
So high prices here are a problem but $800K there is not?
Have you been here lately? The economic expansion going on is mind boggling. Drive around the economic cores of SD (Golden Triangle, Downtown and College area) and things are booming. There are so many massive construction projects going on you cant count them all. There are cranes everywhere around UCSD, UTC and Sorrento Mesa. The airport expansion is masive and remarkable! Those who have not driven up to terminal 1 past what will become the new airport are in for a shock. It is massive! SDSU is expanding all over the place too.
If you see a 25K builder price reduction on houses like yours what you are not seeing is at least another $50K decline hidden via interest rate buy downs, free upgrades and more. The absolute last thing they do is drop prices! Things must be even worse than I thought!
The average working family buying in MM is working at UCSD, a tech company or in the life sciences core. They are buying a modest size home remodeled to current standards on an extremely valuable piece of land. When prices rise here it is the land component that appreciates not the house. In St George for a house to appreciate 250K where land is abundant and virtually unlimited they are paying that extra for a rapidly depreciating house. That is a horrible situation for someone that “I’m sure has heard of the idea that supply and demand determine prices” It is a recipe for a crash of the worst magnitude
The best paying jobs Jobs there are building homes which is entirely unsustainable. When that slows look out below. There is no long term economic engine there. Its just not economically viable
Sure we are losing some residents due to high prices but that pendulum always swings back here because we have a location people covet and a massive economy fueled by the most vital and sustainable industries (tech, medicine, biotech, telco etc) and the military!
People dont need 3200 SF. They dont need forever views of emptiness. They need a livable home and good jobs the later of which SG lacks.
Finally, you mention our property prices will stay high because we have so much more demand than our limited supply. Even if you want to live there its just not prudent to invest in such a fragile situation with endless supply. Its not a safe investment. Diversification!
ParticipantTime to update everyone’s favorite thread here.
On another forum I participate in here is some commentary from a local realtor in Southern UT (comments not my own)
At the end of 2022 we had 220ish homes on the market.
At the end of 2023 we are over 1600! I see articles saying builders cant keep up with demand. Yeah right
I am starting to see short sales hit the market in St George.
New listings starting to flood the market. Price reductions left and right!
Price discovery has come to rentals as desperate landlords need to get their places rented ASAP
Looks like all is not so well out that way. Of course, all entirely predictable. (This is my commentary 🙂 )
ParticipantNew 8 (6) –
Pending 8 (6) –
Thats 0
Closed 14 (7) –
Total houses on the market 52 (63 last year) with a median of 2.42M (1.95M). Two years ago we were at 21 and in 2021 after peak pandemic concern was dissipating we were at 52.
New listings still seem kind of anemic to me. Im not seeing any rush to the exits. Seller confidence is solid and buyer demand growing
ParticipantNew listings 9 (1) –
New Pendings of 6 (2)
Thats +3
Closed sales at 2 (4)
Total houses for sale 5 (14) with median of $1.15M (1.03M). There were 4 on the market 2 years ago.
We got a nice big boost on new inventory. Most of it is from flippers who bought during Fall when prices were subdued and want to get ahead of the market in case new listings start to flood. As unlikely as that is they need to keep their money moving as they are paying hard money rates and want to find their next project.
We are still starting way below last year with lower rates
ParticipantYear end wrap and how we begin
New 1 (3) –
Pending 5 (5) –
Thats -4
Closed 7 (6) –
Total houses on the market 45 (57 last year) with a median of 2.65M (1.995M). Two years ago we were at 18 and in 2020 after peak pandemic concern was dissipating we were at 45.
And so we begin 2024. About where we started 2021 and to a lesser degree last year. Gonna be a slugfest. My early sense from what Ive seen the first week is no one is rushing out of the gate to list their home here
ParticipantThis is how we ended the year and the start 2024
New listings 2 (0) –
New Pendings of 1 (1)
Thats +1
Closed sales at 3 (1)
Total houses for sale 4 (13) with median of $1.24M (1M).
There were 2 on the market 2 years ago.
MM has been on a gentrification push a few years now. Ive long believed gentrification takes a while for enough homes to be fixed up enough to really impact the market. neighbors need to see other neighbors enjoying their remodeled homes and be confident the values will support it. Rates need to be such that those with little to no mortgage will refi out cash for a full remodel. I think we are at or about to hit that point. MM has a very bright future and I see it accelerating its gentrification. It should be unrecognizable in 5 years.
ParticipantCatch up time. this is for week before Christmas
New 3 (0) –
Pending 10 (2) – This was a higher than usual number and bares watching
Thats -7
Closed 2 (7) –
Total houses on the market 51 (57 last year) with a median of 2.45M (1.975M). Two years ago we were at 18 and in 2020 after peak pandemic concern was dissipating we were at 51.
Contrary to what I see in MM the market up here feels fully stretched to me. I think its a year that we need to firm up stability at current levels. Lower rates could ignite a more vibrant market but Im expecting a more sluggish one up here. Buyers and sellers time to don your boxing gloves and slug it out in 2024.
ParticipantCatch up time. This is for week before Christmas
New listings 1 (1) –
New Pendings of 7 (5)
Thats -6
Closed sales at 1 (2)
Total houses for sale 3 (9) with median of $1.2M (1M).
There were 2 on the market 2 years ago.
Looks like I was on the right track as inventory is almost gone here. MM is on the upswing and once we start seeing 3Rs resales hit the market in another year or so it should pick up speed. Lots of places around town need to let the market catch up with current price levels but not here. It would not surprise me to see MM as one of the appreciation bright spots in SD this year.
ParticipantLast week
New listings 2 (1) –
New Pendings of 6 (2)
Thats -4
Closed sales at 4 (2)
Total houses for sale 7 (15) with median of $1.06M (1M).
There were 3 on the market 2 years ago with a 935K media.
I think we start next year with 5 or less homes on the market. The flippers are armed and ready with war chest profits from last few years. There is a healthy appetite for nicely remodeled homes here between 1 and 1.2M at current rates. Wait until they drop some more. The gentrification of MM will continue in full swing this year
ParticipantLast week
New 4 (4) –
Pending 8(12) –
Thats -4
Closed 10 (11) –
Total houses on the market 48 (66 last year) with a median of 2.575M (1.975M). Two years ago we were at 24 and in 2020 after peak pandemic concern was dissipating we were at 51.
Seasonal pattern is holding. We are going to start the year with low inventory volume and rates are trending down. Its gonna be another dogfight year between buyers and sellers with low volume of sales. Unless rates start really dropping and go back into the 5s which would get the party started all over again
ParticipantJust noticed the post two up about layoffs. Im not gonna talk about layoffs because thats outside my realm but the idea there are widespread 7-10K mortgages is pretty suspect. A $1M loan at 7% is $6600. Up until the last couple years loans above that were still fairly rare and most taken out at much lower rates. In CA about 80% of mortgages are at 4% or lower. A $1M mortgage between 2.5% and 4% is $4 to 5K/month. Still a big nut but not $7 -10K.
In my hood of 1000+ homes only 16 homes sold this year which is about 1/3rd of normal. Sales volume is very low here and everywhere around town. Of those a quick check shows maybe half are $1M plus loans. So 8 homes this year. Sure there could be layoffs but even if all were subject to layoffs that just isnt impacting the market materially. And we have seen there are tools to fight this. Those folks still came in with big down payments and could be put in a 10/1 or 5/1 interest only loan to weather the storm. I just dont see a big distressed market happening anytime soon
ParticipantTwo weeks ago
New 4 (6) –
Pending 12(9) –
Thats -8
Closed 8 (11) –
Total houses on the market 67 (77 last year) with a median of 2.5M (1.95M). Two years ago we were at 31 and in 2020 after peak pandemic concern was dissipating we were at 66.
Seasonal pattern is holding. It looks like we will start the year with low volume and rates are trending down. Im thinking it looks like another year of low volume and prices should hold relatively flat.
ParticipantTwo weeks ago
New listings 3 (1) –
New Pendings of 2 (2)
Thats +1
Closed sales at 4 (7)
Total houses for sale 7 (17) with median of $1.125M (999K).
Seasonal slowdown continues.
There were 5 on the market 2 years ago with a 959K media.
We are where we were 2 years ago heading into next year with ultra low inventory. Difference is we dont have ultra low rates this time. Nonetheless its looking like next year will be another low inventory and low volume year.
-
AuthorPosts