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sdrealtor
ParticipantYeah I’ve got a houseful of Herman Miller furniture designed by Charles and Ray Eames and George Nelson that my parents bought in the 1950s when they first got married. It’s all in immaculate condition and I even have the original purchase receipts that proves original ownership. It really is of extraordinary quality and the design is timeless. It was always a source of immense pride for my parents who were way ahead of the curve on things like that. I could never sell it and hope my daughter appreciates it so someday as much as they did and I do
ParticipantDaCounselor asked if that house was the Canary in the Coal mine. I dont think it was but rather this weeks update could be.
New listings 32 (21) – a nice leap up to where we should be. Surprised it took so long to hit 30 in a week. Much more than we have been getting but in line with what we should be getting.
New Pendings of 13 (32) – this is a very low number and potentially the proverbial canary in the coal mine. Outside of early pandemic lockdown, holiday shutdown the lowest number Ive seen in over 2 years and this should be peak selling. More commentary below to follow
Thats +19!
Closed sales at 25 –
Total houses for sale 83 (73) with median of $2.1M ($1.85M)
Inventory is up 50% from last week. Like i have been reading in places like Calculated Risk its increasing everywhere not so much because of more supply but dimished demand.
Looking at the inventory there are great houses in every price range in lots of great neighborhoods. Maybe there are still multple offers to settle on some but still this number seems way low. We are finally positive year over year on inventory. Lets see what next week and the week after bring. With the inventory we have there should be pendings in the high 20’s if not 30’s this time of year. If not inventory will continue to grow even with limited new offerings.
Then the question is what next? Do sellers dig in their heels or reduce expectations? DaCounselor we may have our canary but then what next?
ParticipantMM is holding up well. In general listings and supply are not increasing much but demand is slowing. Its more pronounced elsewhere than here at least for now
New listings 2 (6) – the lack of supply should keep this market stronger than some others
New Pendings of 8 (12) – demand is falling but just not much supply
Closed sales at 5 (14) –
Inventory at 14 with median of 1.057M. Last year it was 9 with median of 859K.
As I thought market is chugging along and will continue to do unless new listings spike up dramatically. We didnt get double digit pendings but inventory is down a good amount week over week because we only got 2 new listings. Market here feels like it is settling into more balance. This is what a soft landing could look like
ParticipantThe weakness always starts with inferior properties and areas. But it doesn’t spread the same way to the premium properties or area. For example parts of Oceanside and Vista got hit close to 50% but our hood never really went down much more than 25%. In our hood some inferior properties got hit a little harder but the premium ones got hit less. When a market is Red Hot and inventory very limited buyers look past the flaws of an inferior property but once the market turns they get hit harder. If you have one you want to sell it in a raging hot market and the corollary is to buy a property like that in a down market.
I think the window to sell that one at top of market is past but others like Serbal will still do well
ParticipantI have a house full of antique furniture that is worth a fortune. I think about selling it but I love it as much as my parents did. I had someone out to take a look at it a little bit ago and was offered crazy money. But I’m gonna hold onto it because of the joy it gives me and the memory of how much my parents loved it. I explained this all to my daughter so that she knows. Someday she can decide what to do with it and sell if she does not want it not just give it away. It’s timeless and I think it will hold great value for a very long time but it’s also really cool and functional
ParticipantHis legacy will carry on at UCSD among other places. Beautiful building in a spectacular location on campus
Participant[quote=DaCounselor]Ok I’m calling that new Serbal listing to close at $3.175.
How long ago was it that we were talking about LCV eventually seeing it’s first sale for $2 mil? Seems like yesterday.[/quote]
Just before midnight yesterday at that!
I’ll go $3.35 albeit Im prepared to be way wrong
Participant[quote=flyer][quote=gzz]Flyer, congratulations on the art. Even if you don’t ever intend to sell, it still feels like winning a game when they appreciate.
There are some art submarkets that are weak. Antique furniture is in a deep and long depression, many items down 90% from the peak.
Older European paintings, from before about 1800, also are not doing too well, outside of the very top of that market, e.g. Da Vinci’s Jesus painting. (IMO it is genuine)
I enjoy coin collecting but worry sometimes that the old white guy demographic is going to evaporate and not be replaced by new collectors. That has already happened with stamps and baseball cards to a large extent. They aren’t dead but far less popular than in the past.
To both keep my collecting focused and protect it from price declines, I generally won’t pay more than 100% over melt value for silver coins and 25% over for gold, and don’t buy non-precious metal coins at all. Indeed the boundary between coin collecting and precious metal investment is a little blurred, since some of my favorite items were acquired at roughly melt value, like a whole roll of very cool William Tell silver 5 swiss francs.[/quote]
Thanks, gzz. It’s true that all collecting has pros and cons, and glad you’ve found the niches that work best for you.
My wife inherited most of the art collection, which has a fascinating multi-generational history with a story line that could become a novel. Her personal experience of discovering an Impressionist piece at a thrift shop in Paris when she was attending college there is a gem. All the best to you with your collections.[/quote]
Sports trading cards are insane also. Have never been hotter. Friend just sold a Jordan card for several thousand. Record sales on a daily basis being set by a kid i grew up. Golden Auctions
ParticipantCorte Luisa sold a few years ago to realtor who went direct after it didnt sell. It was in escrow but fell out once. He’s cashing out
My old neighbor moved to a nice big place in LC Oaks and then downsized to Destino. Nice guy he’s a realtor also
The Serbal house is a great one. Should go full price and if it went as high as 3.5 would not shock me. A neighbor is a long time friend I was talking to this morning. I let him know as soon as I saw it hit coming soon and he is quite pleased to be getting new neighbors
Participant[quote=svelte][quote=gzz]Update:
I went to Total Wine in Mission Valley. WOW! It just opened a couple months ago, and is about 4 times bigger than the Roaecrans Bevmo.
[/quote]
I fell in love with Total Wine on my business trips to east coast – would even pick the hotel closest to Total Wine!
I have patiently waited for their expansion into California…they hit Sacramento over 5 years ago, then Ontario….and now apparently SAN DIEGO! Very very happy and thanks for letting me know!
Excuse me while i go plan my trip…[/quote]
One is going in the Encinitas town center next to the target where Office Depot used to be. With the demographics up here I can’t believe it took them that long. Can’t wait , not that I need anymore but I could walk there
Participant[quote=svelte][quote=sdrealtor] I dont live in Mira Mesa but I follow it and promote it because I see a great future for it. Ive never lived there and never will. I dont live in San Marcos and never will but it is on a market beating trajectory also. [/quote]
I get it. Some may dismiss you as snooty but I don’t. I understand where you’re coming from. You’re coastal and will take the plusses and minuses that come with it. Me, I’d prefer to hang back a bit from the coast and rub elbows with more of the middle class. I have to tell you that has bit me in the ass a bit too…big dust-ups with a neighbor. But I’m a scrapper and can hold my own. Came out on top.
20 years ago I could see my trajectory and where we’d end up financially. I could have moved to the coast and been lower-middle class there – and have my kids feel sub-par. Or move to San Marcos and be upper-middle class or better and have my kids feel at least as good as the others, and probably better than that. I chose the latter.
Do I regret it? Nah. My kids are on trajectories to beat mine. When I’ve expressed regrets on my life, they’ve told me that the values and opportunities I’ve given them far outweigh any regrets I may have. That has made me a happy camper.
I don’t think you are wrong, I don’t think I’m wrong. Just different perspectives. That’s what makes the world fun.[/quote]
Absolutely and IRL I’m anything but snooty. For me if I’m gonna live in CA I’m gonna live close to the ocean. When i moved here i first lived in RB. I spent every weekend driving to the coast. I grew up spending summers at the Jersey Shore and whether i get to the beach or not being close gives me a good feeling inside. I said if I’m gonna live in RB i might as well move to Phoenix. But that’s just me, i like to be coastal and near beautiful open spaces which is why NCC works for me. Others like different settings and that’s fine. I have no bias against any area and just follow what’s going on in as much of SD as I’m able to.
And My family and i have experienced some of what you sought to avoid. I was and still am willing to put up with that to be here. When I’m gone i hope my kids feel the same about this place as i do but if not so be it. Good post svelte.
And i had an awful neighbor for 17 years who surprised me and moved to Idaho last year thinking he was cashing out on top. It’s changed my life for him to be gone. Out with racist, self centered bigot, in with wonderful young couple (Asian and Eastern European) from Bay Area who are a joy to have next door. And i texted him a Zillow screenshot so he could see he left over $600k on the table in less than a year 🙂
Participant[quote=svelte][quote=sdrealtor][quote=svelte][quote=an]
I agree with everything except for:
[quote=svelte]
I’d rather go back to being sleepy San Diego myself.[/quote]
I like where we’re heading and don’t mind just being the next Silion Valley. Maybe BioTech Valley?[/quote]BioTech Valley is probably more accurate.
I have read that biotech expansion is pushing computer tech north to RB and Carlsbad.
So maybe both?[/quote]
Makes a lot of sense. Tech can go anywhere and there is lots of nice housing and good schools up this way. Life sciences needs lab space of which there is lots more in Golden Triangle area plus access to labs at UCSD, Salk, teaching hospitals etc. I think our future is more tied to life sciences than tech.[/quote]
That is probably true. But I think tech is a much larger field than life sciences so that’s why I think they are on equal footing. Could I be wrong? Sure, but I don’t give a f*ck. I’m about to head for the cashier’s window and kick back in retirement. It’s all umbrella drinks and sunglasses from here on out.[/quote]
I think you’re right tech has been a much larger field but i think we are heading into a period of amazing progress in life sciences. I think it’s gonna grow faster than tech at least around here if not worldwide. Hope I’m around long enough to see a lot of that. So scientists get busy and keep me around a bit longer:)
ParticipantOK kettle. Do you actually go back and read your posts? Every post anyone makes you try to make about yourself and how great OB or look alike beach areas are doing. You are the biggest homer here! But sadly that is not where the real data shows the most action is. I actually follow these things close enough to know whats really going on all over SD and have shared that for years. Its kinda funny, kinda sad. I dont live in Mira Mesa but I follow it and promote it because I see a great future for it. Ive never lived there and never will. I dont live in San Marcos and never will but it is on a market beating trajectory also. If I was trolling for referrals Id be kissing a$$ instead of kicking it. You have polluted my threads for years. Your post makes me laugh
ParticipantAnd getting harrassed by homeless and van lifers is part of daily life. Or come up the coast and enjoy pristine uncrowded, undeveloped beaches owned and preserved by the state
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