[sdrealtor]

Default numbers are very low nationally and probably even lower here. Demand has and is falling. I would’ve expected new supply to increase faster than it has. For real change here we need supply to pick up a good deal more. This is what we are waiting to see.

[sdrealtor]

That’s awesome. I’d love to live walk to beach again but am fine and locked in here due to massive cap gain tax and low interest rate mortgage on top of loving how this place has been reborn the last few years with young families. As long as I’ma 10 minute drive to the Belly Up my life is happy and I’ll be there again tonight.

I don’t think the slopes a big issue here. Very few views here of any real value and the slopes provide a deep buffer from neighbors. I’ve got one with lovable but loud neighbors lol

I’ve always been big on public schools. It’s kinda funny to hear some younger neighbors complaining about things thinking they are new only for me to share it was that way 15 years ago. Overall very happy with what we get in this corner of the world as it sounds you are as well

[sdrealtor]

Really nothing there to disagree with outside of different people like different things. There are two areas where LCV shines particularly brightly. For families with the Littles there just doesn’t seem to be a neighborhood with this combination of calm streets, open space, parks, school and recreational amenities is close to the coast and all the main shopping corridor. It’s full of kids out playing all the time. Those things also pull people out of their houses in away I’ve not seen elsewhere. Go out for a walk which I do often and you’ll run into friendly neighbor After friendly neighbor. Some of us like that others don’t.

Those Maravu houses are really nice but do differ by proximity to 5. As much as i like the houses it just wouldn’t be my thing. If i left where i am it would be to walk to the beach and walk to restaurants.

[sdrealtor]

The marketplace here is unlike many other places and has long been prone to upward spikes in prices in short periods of time. The movement of interest rates over the long term is difficult to predict. From my experience of living here three decades most of that in real estate business if you can buy a primary residence that fits your long-term needs anywhere close to rent versus buy parity it’s a good idea. Between appreciation, inflation and the convenience of not having to move more frequently than one wants it always seems to pay off.

The opportunity to refinance your mortgage below 3% was truly one of the greatest opportunities in our lifetime.

[sdrealtor]

Thank you flyer. This has been very helpful. I don’t possess a mansion or a villa in France or a yacht or a string of poloponies. But i do have a wine collection to insure

[sdrealtor]

Lesson learned. A couple years back there were questions about installing home gyms in garages and hot tubs. Those were danger signals as youve learned some higher end renters can be quite needy

[sdrealtor]

I do as well as it took longer than I thought but maybe they wanted it to sit on the market for a while and collect offers. When it was sitting I was thinking that Seller ego would not sell for less than 3 million and if they didn’t get it they would just take it off the market and stay until they could get that. Guess we’ll find out in a month or so

[sdrealtor]

So my neighbor and his brother went to the first pre-screening on the midway that all the cast was at. No military connections whatsoever. Apparently it was very easy to get into and connections not required. Speaking of connections, several years ago I applied for a HELOC at PenFed. At first they said I couldn’t get one because I was not in the military and had no connections. Then they offered me the opportunity to join some pseudo-charitable organization for military families. It cost $10 and then I was in. PenFed HELOC? Not military? No problem. Works well for us

[sdrealtor]

FWIW I’m just reporting what i see and leading edge data is showing. Ironically i think you could substitute real estate for tech industry, homebuyers for companies and inventory for qualified staff. Last Fall my data showed the market was a powder keg about to explode and i wrote that many times. That’s exactly what happened. My data has not shown it yet but in time i suspect some of this spring pricing will prove to have been a brief period of over shooting before market balances out far above pre pandemic pricing. I’ve been singing the same tune for 15 years here. We are subject to cycles and experience some short periods of pain along the road but long term i remain very bullish on this place.

Glad you picked up a home for your family during the downturn. It was quite the opportunity

[sdrealtor]

Fell out of escrow per notes no fault of seller or house. This has become increasingly prevalent as the market down shifts a bit. Still interested to see what becomes of Serbal

[sdrealtor]

Im with Costco AmFam house size between his and yours and no pool not near canyon or fire danger area. Im about $1300 but was higher a year or so ago. The pool can add a lot with liability of having one.

[sdrealtor]

Update time. Maybe put that Canary on hold for a bit longer before we can make a call one way or another.

New listings 23 (19) – back down to where we have been most of the last 2 months and slightly more than a year ago

New Pendings of 25 (41) – back up to where we have been most of the last 2 months and way down from a year ago

Thats -2

Closed sales at 15 –

Total houses for sale 87 (49) with median of $2.1M ($1.925M). The 49 last year was a bit of a low outlier as it was 60ish most of May/June.

The story for the week and month of May as a whole is the same. New supply is staying about the same but it is demand that has fallen off. For the first time in a while you can go look at a home or two for sale in most neighborhoods. Thats nice to see.

Pendings into mid 20’s which was a nice bounce back but still feels a little lighter than we should be. If we get back into mid 30’s that would signal market is firming up.

Seasonal pattern should be a little more inventory growth over next month or two and then dropping after end of summer into year end. Based upon what Ive been seeing, If it hit around 120 I wouldnt be surprised but 150ish and balance is shifting to buyers

[sdrealtor]

MM is settling into balance thus far. Under $1M generally stronger than over as it should be.

New listings 9 (10) – more inventory this week but not a ton

New Pendings of 7 (5) – pretty steady

Closed sales at 5 (9) –

Inventory at 20 with median of 1.1M. Last year it was 17 with median of 860K.

Looking back at May we had slightly more pendings than new listings. Last year we had slightly more new lsitings than pendings. Inventory finally hit 20 and should stay between 20 and 30 through September before falling into year end if typical seasonal patterns hold.

With 20 homes on the market, buyers can go out and look at a bunch each weekend. We are starting to have more balance in the market.

As I mentioned a month ago it should and has started building into the 20’s and should reach 30. Hard to say which way things go from here but for now its a better market for buyers than its been all year. I still think we’ll know we are shifting towards a buyers market when/if inventory gets well above 30. Until then we are pretty well balanced

[sdrealtor]

You have a higher risk appetite than I do being so focussed and trying to time things. I have a well modeled widely diversified portfolio set up and managed by Merrill. For years my XOM and ENB lagged. Each year I would ask during my annual review whether we should get rid of it. The answer was always let the dividends build your position over time at these low valuations and their day will come. The number of share has probably doubled since Ive held it and now their day has come. Thats why I beleive in hiring professionals for important jobs that involve lots of money

Ironically the one energy company I got rid of has done nothing and it was the right call. Sold it about 3 years ago. Im not gonna claim any credit though. It was Kinder Morgan and they sent me a K-1 each year with international income. I got rid of it because I do my own taxes and hated dealing with that each year. Better lucky than good

[sdrealtor]

Yup lots going on that people who dont participate in these things dont understand. Two of my regular Friday wine buddies are long time QCOMers. One director level has been there probably 25 years. The other Manager has been there 20. They sell whenever they vest. Both have paid off or nearly paid off homes plus paid off rentals. Done paying for college and could quite anytime if money wasnt so good which is why they stay. Both of them are always flying off to some international destination or wine country for the weekend. Must be nice to not have a care in the world

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