Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
sdrealtor
ParticipantSG market is rated 18 for Not very competitive
https://www.redfin.com/city/16751/UT/St-George/housing-market
SD market is rated 82 for Hot very competitive
https://www.redfin.com/city/16904/CA/San-Diego/housing-market
ParticipantPeople leave when it gets more expensive whether it be to cash out or that they cant afford it. The winners stay and the losers head to places like St George where the market is deteriorating by the day. Then prices equalize at some point and they come pouring back in. This is nothing new in SD. This place has so much inherently going for it that it will always be an aspirational place to live. If prices became more affordable the population would go crazy and in due time it will again. Lather rinse repeat
Ill work on a SG data update when I get the chance
ParticipantJust saw this and looked back on my prediction and most of it remains in place.
I expected NAR to fight more but they rolled over and settled. Got that one wrong
Doesnt impact me much. Still the same. Its just theater to me at this point in my career
Impact will be felt mostly by buyers who will have a tougher go at getting quality representation. Still to TBD but Im still firm on this and them being among the losers
Sellers wont save much and prices wont change because of this. Still TBD but Im still firm on this. The big winners will be listing agent side that will increasingly be dual agents. With it tougher on buyers prices are less prone to being bid up for sellers. But no seller is gonna drop their price by 10 to 20% or anything because they are saving a percent or two on the commission. Prices will largely stagnate IMO as a stand off continues.
Redfin is more toast than ever as their business is primarily on the buyers side. At some point it should be an aquisition target for one of the big national brokerages.
Zillow is also in trouble as their primary business is selling buyer leads that will increasingly drop in value. They need a major shift in strategy and quickly! MLS associations across the country could become an endangered species and a national MLSlike database is one of their biggest opportunities
Compass will do well as a brokerage as they are on the listing side primarily but the stock isnt going anywhere. Real estate brokerage continues to be a low margin business and the tech company masquerade is over for them along with Redfin.
The size of the agent population will get crushed. There are tons of aging realtors hanging on for one last deal. Most will finally hang it up as not worth the hassle. The young high flying agents who thought this was easy? Decaf non fat latte please! The established dorsal finned agents with strong listing businesses will thrive more than ever. Consolidation is coming and half the agents currently out there could and should be gone in the next 2 to 3 years.
Did I leave anyone out?
Oh, property values will be just fine around here. There will be ebbs and flows but there is just too much going on around here. The cost of living has chased a higher number of residents out the last year but eventually things come back into balance and they will come back in droves. There is just too much to love about here and so many aspire to be here.
Cheers all!
Participantfirst week of march
New 25 (15) –
Pending 22 (16) –
Thats +3
Closed 13 (16) –
Total houses on the market 81 (49 last year) with a median of 2.595M (2.388M). Two years ago we were at 25 and in 2021 we were at 42.
Inventory slowly building but demand is steady. Market is softening but not much. Two years ago prices were exploding but now they are holding steady at close to Spring 2022 peak prices. Next few weeks we’ll see if inventory builds or demand starts to pick up as it should seasonally
Participantfirst week in March
New listings 3 (3) –
New Pendings of 7 (5)
Thats -4
Closed sales at 6 (7)
Total houses for sale 5 (11) with median of $950k (1.05M). There were 4 on the market 2 years ago and 6 in 2021.
This market only seems to be getting stronger
ParticipantForgot to post week 4 of Feb last week. Here it is
New 20 (8) –
Pending 19 (19) –
Thats +1
Closed 17 (9) –
Total houses on the market 76 (49 last year) with a median of 2.45M (2.5M). Two years ago we were at 31 and in 2021 we were at 53.
New listings continue at a higher pace than last year but things are selling also at roughly the same pace as new listings. We are getting some inventory build but are heading into what should be the strongest demand cycle of the year. The market continues to feel balanced with the good ones priced right going quickly but the ones pushing price are sitting
ParticipantThats one opinion I certainly do not share. I expect prices to largely moderate as incomes catch up over the next decade or so. Those currently locked out of the market are rightfully pessimistic and it sucks being born at the wrong time but this area will do just fine and eventually normalize back to more reasonable valuations.
ParticipantI got experience as trustee for my mother starting about 15 years until she passed. I learned there is nothing more unsettling for a relatively conservative investor than spending down the assets you have accumulated over a lifetime. I built her a very strong high quality dividend stock portfolio along with using some government bonds and income funds. It served her very well and she lived off the income while it continued appreciating for her heirs (my siblings and I). When she passed it was carved up 4 ways and while we have each done some tweaking over the last 4 years in each of our portfolios it has continued to perform well. She would never believe what its grown to become
Participant
ParticipantWeek 4 of Feb
New listings 9 (5) –
New Pendings of 7 (3)
Thats +2
Closed sales at 7 (2)
Total houses for sale 6 (12) with median of $947k (1.037M). There were 7 on the market 2 years ago and 7 in 2021.
This is a really strong market. Everything on the market has days on market of about a week or less and should sell soon.
I was driving through last week noting how far 3 Roots has come and how many condos and townhomes there are already built. I have no doubt a steady flow of them will want to stay local and eventually roll their gains into a single family house without fees or HOA. This is a market that should continue to do well
ParticipantWeek 3 of February
New 22 (13) –
Pending 11 (11) –
Thats +11
Closed 14 (10) –
Total houses on the market 74 (52 last year) with a median of 2.375M (2.2M). Two years ago we were at 25 and in 2021 after peak pandemic concern was dissipating we were at 49.
New listings are defintely picking up and anecdotally it seems like a higher share are long time owners selling. There are some signs of boomer liquidation.
This is when buyer demand should start really kicking up a notch. If it does not inventory could build quickly and start to influence prices. For now market feels more balanced than it has in a while
ParticipantDouble post coming to catch up
Week 2 of February
New 17 (5) –
Pending 19 (15) –
Thats -2
Closed 12 (7) –
Total houses on the market 66 (47 last year) with a median of 2.4M (2.2M). Two years ago we were at 24 and in 2021 after peak pandemic concern was dissipating we were at 52.
New listings up nicely and we didnt see that high until mid April last year. Inventory starting to build
ParticipantWeek 3 of Feb
New listings 6 (3) –
New Pendings of 3 (4)
Thats +3
Closed sales at 9 (2)
Total houses for sale 6 (12) with median of $1.025m (1.07M). There were 4 on the market 2 years ago and 5 in 2021.
Little more inventory and fewer pendings. I suspect rates slowed buyers a bit but with such low inventory it wont last
ParticipantSoory didnt post last week. Double post coming
Week 2 of Feb
New listings 3 (3) –
New Pendings of 6 (4)
Thats -3
Closed sales at 2 (4)
Total houses for sale 2 (11) with median of $995K (1M). There were 7 on the market 2 years ago and 10 in 2021.
Red hot market here
-
AuthorPosts
