[sdrealtor]

So this was a week last year that I was away and missed so no year over year figures.

Market continues to shift into balance. Last week I mentioned this was when things start to slow down each year. This year was no exception but there is something more going on. In a typical year demand slows but supply does not yet. This year both did quite a bit.

New listings 5

New Pendings of 5

Closed sales at 7

Inventory at 27 with median of 1.083M.

This looks like it could be the beginning of a market shifting into stagnancy. The mainstream media is starting to write about this also. Demand is falling rapidly but new supply is also. We could settle in to a narrow range where volume is very low without much movement on pricing unless supply starts spiking.

https://money.yahoo.com/housing-market-hibernation-191801666.html

One thing to look for with low demand is the departure of many of my colleagues over the next couple years. Less volume, less paychecks for agents. This could and should happen regardless of what happens with pricing.

Today we saw two of the poster child brokerages for living off of public market money (Redfin and Compass) announce significant layoffs. Pricing of homes is not particuarly relevant to them. Sales volume is relevant to them and thats falling quickly.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/14/real-estate-firms-compass-and-redfin-announce-layoffs-as-housing-market-slows.html

Will be interesting to watch this all and I’ll be in my front row seat throw it all. Im built for this and not going anywhere

[sdrealtor]

I agree that we appear to have peaked but reserve the right to say never mind next Spring as things have become so hard to predict. That’s a good one but there are plenty others. I sold a listing last month that made me happy for my long time client who I got the best deal anyone got in one of the nicest townhome communities here during the downturn. Then we sold it for a price record I think could stand another decade. Single mom started with basically nothing but a good job, left with 500k and a great guy a decade later. She got it coming and going.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=scaredyclassic][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]I’m not a gambler, I’m an “investor”. And my current investment strategy has been shorting housing stocks and it is doing quite well and the future looks even brighter.

meanwhile, I don’t want to take your money, as I stated many times, I will be more than satisfied just in knowing that your net worth was vaporized by 30-50% during this crash.[/quote]

The very definition of bitter envy. I wish everyone success and prosperity. This loser wants shared misery[/quote]

I wish for lower home prices for all. If it requires you to lose 50% of your wealth to get there that’s fine. You are wealthy enough you won’t even notice it.[/quote]

I know I’ve taken it to him but this is just what you got with him. A full 2/3 of the households in this country are homeowners. Of the remaining 1/3 I’d surmise no more than 1/3 of those would ever realistically get there. That’s maybe 10% of the population that could benefit from a 50% fall damaging 66%. That makes no sense and never did. This was never about putting anyone in a better position except him the rest be dammed.[/quote]

Wait. What about young people? Statically this makes sense…but what about the future[/quote]

The answer is it will take time to reprice assets and trying to rush it would do more damage than good. Let the passage of time do its thing. Until then your not done with the kids when they finish college. More support to be given

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]I’m not a gambler, I’m an “investor”. And my current investment strategy has been shorting housing stocks and it is doing quite well and the future looks even brighter.

meanwhile, I don’t want to take your money, as I stated many times, I will be more than satisfied just in knowing that your net worth was vaporized by 30-50% during this crash.[/quote]

The very definition of bitter envy. I wish everyone success and prosperity. This loser wants shared misery[/quote]

I wish for lower home prices for all. If it requires you to lose 50% of your wealth to get there that’s fine. You are wealthy enough you won’t even notice it.[/quote]

I know I’ve taken it to him but this is just what you got with him. A full 2/3 of the households in this country are homeowners. Of the remaining 1/3 I’d surmise no more than 1/3 of those would ever realistically get there. That’s maybe 10% of the population that could benefit from a 50% fall damaging 66%. That makes no sense and never did. This was never about putting anyone in a better position except him the rest be dammed.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone]I’m not a gambler, I’m an “investor”. And my current investment strategy has been shorting housing stocks and it is doing quite well and the future looks even brighter.

meanwhile, I don’t want to take your money, as I stated many times, I will be more than satisfied just in knowing that your net worth was vaporized by 30-50% during this crash.[/quote]

The very definition of bitter envy. I wish everyone success and prosperity. This loser wants shared misery

[sdrealtor]

I’m not a gambler either

Betting window remains open

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=Rich Toscano][quote=sdrealtor]So says the guy who has never participated in it.

Betting window remains open[/quote]

This is a deadzone-quality reply.

(PS What is the bet exactly?)[/quote]

lol he speaks constantly of that which he knows nothing

The bet would require all SD real estate to return to pre pandemic pricing. That would require my house to drop 48% from its current valuation. I’ll take that bet every day[/quote]

How is your NAIL doing by the way, talk about he who knows nothing.[/quote]

Sold long ago for a nice profit as i reported here a while ago. Still more stupidity. Is there no bounds?

Betting window still open

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Rich Toscano][quote=sdrealtor]So says the guy who has never participated in it.

Betting window remains open[/quote]

This is a deadzone-quality reply.

(PS What is the bet exactly?)[/quote]

lol he speaks constantly of that which he knows nothing

The bet would require all SD real estate to return to pre pandemic pricing. That would require my house to drop 48% from its current valuation. I’ll take that bet every day

[sdrealtor]

Wait the MBS market during the bubble with no regard to underwriting and complete mispricing of risk wasnt fake but the market with underwriting standards was? That could be the dumbest comment yet

[sdrealtor]

So says the guy who has never participated in it.

Betting window remains open

[sdrealtor]

When?

[sdrealtor]

Funny thing is the cnbc article if you actually read it past the headline has a graph showing household debt to income is just off four decades lows and still extraordinarily low from a historical perspective. It disproves your stretched thin comment. Darn data

[sdrealtor]

Thats a lot of stuff to unpack with no understanding or data. You’re like a headline machine

[sdrealtor]

Not paid off quite yet:)

[sdrealtor]

Just did 92130 and some things here surprised me a little

attached
55 sales of which 12 were all cash

6 were primary residences
6 were investors one of which was an ibuyer that is gonna turn around and sell it

Only 1 of the investors had a Chinese surname and 1 of the primary residences.

Detached
60 sales of which 12 were all cash

Not one showed any indication of being an investor. 6 were clearly primary residences. The other 6 were likely primary residences but 2 or 3 could be second residences.

Only 2 had Chinese surnames both in the defintely primary residence category

The three surprises to me was the same roughly 20% cash buyers Ive seen in other zips so far. The other was dispelling the notion of an influx of cash Chinese buyers as most are Chinese-American residents using financing. The third is the low level of Chinese investors in CV who seem to prefer the lower priced nearby offerings in UTC, MM and PQ from what i am seeing

So far seeing no evidence in the data of what DZ has said. Im seeing wealthy folks fully capable of paying cash making up the cash buyers.

I also saw a couple more Flyhomes buyers. They must be writing contract guaranteeing cash but all are closing with mortages with flyhomes as their lender. Its basically a way of appearing to be stronger as a buyer and using a lender who is probably charging you a higher rate for that privilege. They dont show up as cash sales

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