Yes, the Fed matters a lot; nobody disagrees with that.

[Anonymous]

I’m not a gambler, I’m an “investor”. And my current investment strategy has been shorting housing stocks and it is doing quite well and the future looks even brighter.

meanwhile, I don’t want to take your money, as I stated many times, I will be more than satisfied just in knowing that your net worth was vaporized by 30-50% during this crash.

[sdrealtor]

I’m not a gambler either

Betting window remains open

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=deadzone]I’m not a gambler, I’m an “investor”. And my current investment strategy has been shorting housing stocks [/quote]

Well at least you put investor in quotes.

[XBoxBoy]

[quote=davelj][quote=XBoxBoy]

Yes, and while that chart is certainly concerning, I don’t share the belief that that chart proves the fed caused all the inflation we are seeing.

[/quote]

I agree that the Fed has not caused ALL of the inflation we’re seeing. I’m not sure anyone believes that. But it has surely caused a lot and almost certainly most of it. If you look at the expansion of all Central Bank balance sheets since the pandemic began, that expansion (alone!) is roughly 1/3 of global GDP. It doesn’t take an Economics PhD to see how that would cause a fvck-load of inflation. Yes, fiscal policies, Putin’s douchebaggery, etc have all contributed to the inflation we’re seeing, but the Big Source is… the Fed and the other Central Banks. It’s math. (Paul Volcker turns over in his grave.)[/quote]

Hmmmm…. not finding your argument particularly convincing. Seems you’re mostly saying that since the start of the pandemic the fed and other central banks have increased their balance sheets a bunch, so ipso facto the fed caused the inflation. I’m looking for a stronger analysis to be convinced.

Also, if increasing their balance sheets causes inflation, why didn’t we have inflation (at least some) since the start of QE? The fed has been active with QE since November 2008 but the fed couldn’t even reach it’s target of 2% inflation for years. Why now did QE suddenly become the so effective at causing inflation when it wasn’t for so long? Sure, there’s more QE now, but shouldn’t we have had some inflation for the last decade prior to the pandemic? If it’s merely due to the increase in the size of QE what’s the inflection point that causes it to go from having no effect to having a bunch of effect?

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone]I’m not a gambler, I’m an “investor”. And my current investment strategy has been shorting housing stocks and it is doing quite well and the future looks even brighter.

meanwhile, I don’t want to take your money, as I stated many times, I will be more than satisfied just in knowing that your net worth was vaporized by 30-50% during this crash.[/quote]

The very definition of bitter envy. I wish everyone success and prosperity. This loser wants shared misery

[Anonymous]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]I’m not a gambler, I’m an “investor”. And my current investment strategy has been shorting housing stocks and it is doing quite well and the future looks even brighter.

meanwhile, I don’t want to take your money, as I stated many times, I will be more than satisfied just in knowing that your net worth was vaporized by 30-50% during this crash.[/quote]

The very definition of bitter envy. I wish everyone success and prosperity. This loser wants shared misery[/quote]

I wish for lower home prices for all. If it requires you to lose 50% of your wealth to get there that’s fine. You are wealthy enough you won’t even notice it.

[Anonymous]

[quote=XBoxBoy]

Also, if increasing their balance sheets causes inflation, why didn’t we have inflation (at least some) since the start of QE? The fed has been active with QE since November 2008 but the fed couldn’t even reach it’s target of 2% inflation for years. Why now did QE suddenly become the so effective at causing inflation when it wasn’t for so long? Sure, there’s more QE now, but shouldn’t we have had some inflation for the last decade prior to the pandemic? If it’s merely due to the increase in the size of QE what’s the inflection point that causes it to go from having no effect to having a bunch of effect?[/quote]

That’s a good question, specifically how did the Fed get away with QE for so long. But certainly if you look at the numbers, they expanded their balance sheet about 3 trillion over an 11 year period from 2009 to 2020. Then in just two years of Covid they expanded it another 5 trillion. Looking at the rate of monetary expansion between those two periods it’s not even comparable, so not sure how you can be surprised that such an unprecedented rate of expansion wouldn’t lead to inflation.

But again, at this point it is irrelevant how much of this inflation was caused by Fed monetary expansion. The reality is the only power they have to address it is to contract the balance sheet and raise interest rates. So you are arguing that the Fed will not be effective in controlling inflation. You very well may be correct, but they have no other choice so they will tighten anyway, and cause a recession regardless. If they are successful in bringing down inflation, then mission accomplished. If not, then things may get very, very uncomfortable.

[Rich Toscano]

[quote=deadzone]I’m not a gambler, I’m an “investor”. And my current investment strategy has been shorting housing stocks and it is doing quite well and the future looks even brighter.

meanwhile, I don’t want to take your money, as I stated many times, I will be more than satisfied just in knowing that your net worth was vaporized by 30-50% during this crash.[/quote]

I’ve asked you a few times to stop acting like a jerk and as far as I can tell you’ve made precisely zero effort to even move slightly in that direction. It’s still all ill will, insults, talking down to people, ad hominems, TRYING to start fights, and of course the incessant fact-free ranting.

You will complain that certain other posters act this way towards you, and I don’t disagree, and it annoys me an awful lot that they do. But have you ever noticed that it’s only you getting into these scrapes?

Here’s a line I heard on Justified, a good tv show from a few years back: “If you meet an asshole in the morning, you met an asshole. If you meet assholes all day, YOU’RE the asshole.”

So with that I will say goodbye, and wish you the best in Blocksville. Say hi to the mayor, his name is Brian.

[davelj]

[quote=XBoxBoy] I’m looking for a stronger analysis to be convinced.
[/quote]

Ok, imagine that economic output is represented by a bucket of sand. A recession comes along and some of that sand disappears. The Fed reduces interest rates and expands its balance sheet thereby…

Apologies, in my old age I’ve just lost the patience to explain things to people.

You’ll figure it out. Or not. Best of luck.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]I’m not a gambler, I’m an “investor”. And my current investment strategy has been shorting housing stocks and it is doing quite well and the future looks even brighter.

meanwhile, I don’t want to take your money, as I stated many times, I will be more than satisfied just in knowing that your net worth was vaporized by 30-50% during this crash.[/quote]

The very definition of bitter envy. I wish everyone success and prosperity. This loser wants shared misery[/quote]

I wish for lower home prices for all. If it requires you to lose 50% of your wealth to get there that’s fine. You are wealthy enough you won’t even notice it.[/quote]

I know I’ve taken it to him but this is just what you got with him. A full 2/3 of the households in this country are homeowners. Of the remaining 1/3 I’d surmise no more than 1/3 of those would ever realistically get there. That’s maybe 10% of the population that could benefit from a 50% fall damaging 66%. That makes no sense and never did. This was never about putting anyone in a better position except him the rest be dammed.

[Coronita]

Sorry, was away Sunday and today helping out the robotics team and fixing a 3D printer and painting a miata. What did I miss? Did we solve world peace yet?

It’s really annoying we have a supply chain parts shortage from china in just about everything, because a lot of things that would have been easy to find, much cheaper to do isn’t so anymore…

it would have been a lot easier to just plop down a few hundred on new parts and saved a lot of time. Can’t.. all the money in the world cannot tell those factories in China to make those parts and deliver them here within 2-3 months…and we can’t wait that long…

..So what did we do? I bought a bunch of broken ones people are selling off of eBay, exact same model, and stripping them down and picking off what we can use as a parts….I paid 2x more for the broken 3D printers than new parts and spent 2x more time of my free labor desoldering old parts and getting things fixed than needed had the parts been available for order.

Inflation. Really really bad…because our supply chain is still pretty messed up, at least for a lot of tech.

Now this might sound funny to do, taking old broken gear, taking them apart and taking our components you need…but desperate times call for desperate measures….and it’s just a smaller scale of what is happening , even in the appliance industry where this is a very big problem. Hence…

https://semiwiki.com/forum/index.php?threads/the-chip-shortage-is-so-bad-companies-are-ripping-them-out-of-washing-machines.15913/

Why is this a big deal? Well let’s think about this…Now you need to hire people to pull shit out of junk, test those components work before reuse. Some of them will fail prematurely and either the manufacturer will be on the hook for additional repairs in warranty at their cost, or they will fail out of warra th where the consumer will pay more for repairs or replacement….

The cost of appliances have gone up considerably . Same home Depot dishwasher I bought about 1.5 years ago is about 2.5x more.

So… How will the Fed’s policy fix this problem? Not sure. Because it seems like demand for goods and services is there, just things are really really backed up.

I’d place my bet with AN, we are headed for stagflation.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]I’m not a gambler, I’m an “investor”. And my current investment strategy has been shorting housing stocks and it is doing quite well and the future looks even brighter.

meanwhile, I don’t want to take your money, as I stated many times, I will be more than satisfied just in knowing that your net worth was vaporized by 30-50% during this crash.[/quote]

The very definition of bitter envy. I wish everyone success and prosperity. This loser wants shared misery[/quote]

I wish for lower home prices for all. If it requires you to lose 50% of your wealth to get there that’s fine. You are wealthy enough you won’t even notice it.[/quote]

I know I’ve taken it to him but this is just what you got with him. A full 2/3 of the households in this country are homeowners. Of the remaining 1/3 I’d surmise no more than 1/3 of those would ever realistically get there. That’s maybe 10% of the population that could benefit from a 50% fall damaging 66%. That makes no sense and never did. This was never about putting anyone in a better position except him the rest be dammed.[/quote]

Wait. What about young people? Statically this makes sense…but what about the future

[sdrealtor]

[quote=scaredyclassic][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]I’m not a gambler, I’m an “investor”. And my current investment strategy has been shorting housing stocks and it is doing quite well and the future looks even brighter.

meanwhile, I don’t want to take your money, as I stated many times, I will be more than satisfied just in knowing that your net worth was vaporized by 30-50% during this crash.[/quote]

The very definition of bitter envy. I wish everyone success and prosperity. This loser wants shared misery[/quote]

I wish for lower home prices for all. If it requires you to lose 50% of your wealth to get there that’s fine. You are wealthy enough you won’t even notice it.[/quote]

I know I’ve taken it to him but this is just what you got with him. A full 2/3 of the households in this country are homeowners. Of the remaining 1/3 I’d surmise no more than 1/3 of those would ever realistically get there. That’s maybe 10% of the population that could benefit from a 50% fall damaging 66%. That makes no sense and never did. This was never about putting anyone in a better position except him the rest be dammed.[/quote]

Wait. What about young people? Statically this makes sense…but what about the future[/quote]

The answer is it will take time to reprice assets and trying to rush it would do more damage than good. Let the passage of time do its thing. Until then your not done with the kids when they finish college. More support to be given

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=scaredyclassic][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone][quote=sdrealtor][quote=deadzone]I’m not a gambler, I’m an “investor”. And my current investment strategy has been shorting housing stocks and it is doing quite well and the future looks even brighter.

meanwhile, I don’t want to take your money, as I stated many times, I will be more than satisfied just in knowing that your net worth was vaporized by 30-50% during this crash.[/quote]

The very definition of bitter envy. I wish everyone success and prosperity. This loser wants shared misery[/quote]

I wish for lower home prices for all. If it requires you to lose 50% of your wealth to get there that’s fine. You are wealthy enough you won’t even notice it.[/quote]

I know I’ve taken it to him but this is just what you got with him. A full 2/3 of the households in this country are homeowners. Of the remaining 1/3 I’d surmise no more than 1/3 of those would ever realistically get there. That’s maybe 10% of the population that could benefit from a 50% fall damaging 66%. That makes no sense and never did. This was never about putting anyone in a better position except him the rest be dammed.[/quote]

Wait. What about young people? Statically this makes sense…but what about the future[/quote]

The answer is it will take time to reprice assets and trying to rush it would do more damage than good. Let the passage of time do its thing. Until then your not done with the kids when they finish college. More support to be given[/quote]

Argh!

[flyer]

Agree, stagflation may be in our future, but you never know. Have heard reports, and seen firsthand with our rentals, that bidding wars are becoming more and more common. Most of us here are well positioned, so it will be interesting to watch how this cycle goes in comparison to those past.

[Author]

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