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sdrealtor
ParticipantI have yet to see those facts just sweeping anecdotes. Can you share actual data? The kind with numbers. Would love to see it because the data Ive shared tells a different story. The story it tells is that every market surrounding St George is starting to shift dramatically in a way the coastal CA markets are not. And while Id be the first to admit that St George could still grow and prosper despite those markets deteriorating quickly they do a much better job of telling the story of an alleged CA exodus. They do so much better than little SG ever could and that story is the whole point of this exercise.
I dont doubt that your market has been growing over the last 2 years by those measures you mention despite you not sharing actual data points. That has been the case pretty much everywhere in the country until recently. UCSD has grown more than 10% during the pandemic! I would venture to guess that its growth is bigger than the total enrollment of that school you mentioned. Feel free to correct me but is this the school you mentioned? the one with 7200 students?
https://www.niche.com/colleges/utah-tech-university/
However, things out in the world are shifting fast. What the data sources Ive put out show are the first things available on the RE market and the trends are unmistakable.
As for the subject, here’s what prods me to revisit it as I did several months ago. Its kinda funny but I added SG to the cities on my cell phone weather app when this all started. Every once in a while I scroll through them all and when I saw temps in SG well over 100 it made me chuckle and I posted about that. Then last week another poster forwarded me an article about the RE markets taking the hardest and fastest falls of which 3 of the top 10 are in Utah. That presented an opportunity to challege the unsubtantiated claims again
The whole alleged CA exodus is a phenomena that has always interested me. I’ve been here almost 30 years and it seems the media rolls out that story every year or two. Somehow we keep growing and booming economically in CA leading the way in our great nation despite all these premature calls. If we go back to the beginning where you admit selling out of SD over a decade ago and switching to AZ where you did not do as well as you would have had you just left it in SD. That has only amplified since this thread began. While you still try to claim we are falling apart here, you have pretty much admitted that the best thing you could have done with your SD investments would have been not to touch them. You are speaking from your red beating heart not your head. This thread presents another opportunity for me to follow and debunk that theory as i have been the last 2 decades.
ParticipantI got rid of my ignore list a while back. Thanks for contributing. Look forward to more.
ParticipantMore drivel. You are clutching at pearls. EP and his anti CA rhetoric is about people fleeing here and the red state destinations continuing to boom. What is happening in the 3 msa’s of UT is happening south of SG in vegas. And in Nashville and in Idaho and in Phoenix. He provides no data just platitudes which ironically seem to fly in the face of your leaning as well. Based upon your comments re dz it’s clear this was not a one time fly by. No one believes your bs that you’re not following closer than you want to admit. If you went to contribute something meaningful to our real estate discussion please have at it. The last couple years you did participate it was almost exclusively political ranting of which there are plenty of other places to do that. We are all big boys and girls here. If you prefer taking jabs feel free as well
Participant[quote=flyer]EP. Agree family is everything. Of all that we have and do, none of it would have been as great had it not been shared by our very close family ties, which we still, and always will have.
You probably lived the CA lifestyle at level most only dream of longer that most ever will–so you’ve been there–done that. Now you’ve moved on to another lifestyle. Whether others like it or not doesn’t matter. You’re living the life YOU want to live–that’s what matters.[/quote]
Exactly though it would not surprise me to see him return or go someplace else in a few years if the shine wears off SG
ParticipantWelcome back and good to see you still lurking regularly but so misguided. If my true colors are taking EP to task for throwing CA (which created great wealth for him and his family for decades) under the bus because he disagrees with it politically i’ll wear those proudly every time!
If you took the time to actually read you’d see I mentioned Sacto earlier and specifically why I did not include it as it bears a lot more in common with places like UT, Id, AZ, TN, LV etc than SoCal or the Bay Area.
Those 3 Utah MSA’s make up well over 80% of the population of UT and are very representative of what is happening all over Utah including St George which is just too small to be followed by the major data collectors. The entire SG metro is no bigger than Oceanside and I’d bet $$ to donuts it will follow what is happening in the rest of the reported UT areas as there is no industry to support what has happened there with RE
As for this thread and EP this thread stays active and pops up regularly. I have no issue with his moving there and think he did it for great reasons. ive told him countless times. He moved there to be around his kids and grandkids. Thats a great reason and Ive told him over and over I hope he enjoys them. where we divurge is perpetual attacks on CA wihtou ever bringing a single data point…ever. He just rolls out his lazy political nonsense when he feels like taking a jab that at the place that made him what he is.
I wish EP nothing but well and sincerely hope he’s enjoying the heck out of life there and watching his grandchildren grow
Participant[quote=sdrealtor]
I included Santa Clara also as its one of the prime coastal markets and would have included LA if the data was there. I didnt include Sacto which had numbers but is more of fleeing high cost CA market and has more incommon as a place and the inventory trend is similar to LV/PHX/NVille than SD. There wasnt good FLA data but what seems to be going on there is more the great resignation/earlier than expected retirement gang then WFH crowd.
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here
Participant[quote=Pbranding][quote=sdrealtor][quote=sdrealtor][quote=DaCounselor]Ok I’m calling that new Serbal listing to close at $3.175.
How long ago was it that we were talking about LCV eventually seeing it’s first sale for $2 mil? Seems like yesterday.[/quote]
Just before midnight yesterday at that!
I’ll go $3.35 albeit Im prepared to be way wrong[/quote]
As predicted on May 16th. Still the king. Undisputed[/quote]
It’s whoever gets closest without going over. The Price is Right rules. I think you went over a bit ;)[/quote]
Lol it goes 15.45% over asking and my prediction was within 0.75% of final selling price. I’ll call that a win even under the PIR rules;)
But before I celebrate with a nice glass of vino its time to set EconProf straight on this thread first
Participant[quote=EconProf][quote=sdrealtor]Wonder what’s going on in St George beyond 100 degree weather?[/quote]
Answer: still flocking here in big numbers, esp. from CA.
About that weather, two factoids. We are higher in elevation than Phoenix and Las Vegas–both at about sea level–so are a bit cooler. And we have a big temperature swing between the day’s high and low. So people jog and bike ride in a.m., not mid-afternoon. Secondly, the hotter temperatures in those two big cities does not seem to be deterring Californians from moving in big numbers to those cities. Gosh, I wonder why that is?[/quote]Wonder no more! Here is what is going on in Utah!
No market out west is weakening harder and faster than the Utah metro areas and of course St George has gotta be right there with them.
My favorite quote in the article came at the very end!
“The trend has started to reverse in both places, with Salt Lake City seeing a net outflow (more Redfin.com users looking to leave than move in) for the first time on record in the first quarter,” Redfin reported.
Game, Set, Match
Participant[quote=sdrealtor][quote=DaCounselor]Ok I’m calling that new Serbal listing to close at $3.175.
How long ago was it that we were talking about LCV eventually seeing it’s first sale for $2 mil? Seems like yesterday.[/quote]
Just before midnight yesterday at that!
I’ll go $3.35 albeit Im prepared to be way wrong[/quote]
As predicted on May 16th. Still the king. Undisputed
Participant[quote=matt]LCV is a great community with relatively lower HOA fees and a great community center but older and generally smaller homes / lots vs LCO and similar.
Perhaps there are 1-2 pending that continue to hit this range but my sense remains that 3m in LCV in the current macro-economic environment is the peak of this cycle.
I am one of those that picked up a LCO property at 900 at the bottom. My current target is to downsize but would prefer to be in a smaller home west of the 5 than a few meters closer to Camino Real.[/quote]
FWIW lots are generally bigger in LCV than LCO which is amplified by putting bigger homes on the smaller lots. Our homes are worth what they are not because they are beautiful well built homes but rather because of the land. We are about 70% land value as a rule of thumb. Thus smaller house on bigger better located lot is as if not more valuable than bigger house on smaller not as well located lot. Morera in LCO doesnt sell for $3.05M. As the homes all age more this should bear out even more. If you struggling with this think about beach properties which are a more extreme example
The exceptions are the view lots in LCO which don’t exist in LCV so comparing those in LCO to any on LCV is apples and oranges
ParticipantUpdate here to with y-o-y maing its return after a brief hiatus
New listings 32 (30) – should be peak listing time around now and if we see much higher ahead thats notable
New Pendings of 18 (25) – continuing to drop each week which is typical of the time of year and not in itself notable. The gap between new listings and new pendings is what is more notable
Thats -14
Closed sales at 19 (24)
Total houses for sale 111 (69) with median of $2.08M ($1.8M).
Inventory contiinues rising as it typically does and usually peaks in late July to early August. We are still averaging about 3 pendings per day over last couple weeks which puts us under 1 and 1/2 months of inventory.
We are starting to see the market separate and return to more traditional patterns. In a typical market the best homes here always sell well at top dollar while homes with challenges be they condition, floor plan, lot, location or pricing sit unless price is properly discounted for that. In a booming sellers market such as weve had the last 2 years, everything sells and homes take less of a discount because of panic driven buying. Thats not the case anymore in current conditions. With more choices buyers are more prone to wait for the right one
ParticipantI owe you all an update. Back to year over year comps too
New listings 7 (9)
New Pendings of 6 (11)
Closed sales at 5 (7)
Inventory at 29 (18) with median of 1.08M (825K).
Once again a solid market. The massive overbidding is past and overpricing without adjusting will leave you sitting. However at the end of the day about 1 house is going in escrow everyday and we’ve got 29 on the market which is about a month inventory. Its still tilted toward sellers despite some softness in pricing
ParticipantOne of my buddies lives adjacent to Fresno. House was in need of complete redo inside and out. Morera was like that when purchased and got the full redo inside. Serbal got it inside and out.
Segovia needs lots and it’s kinda busy there but recent addition of 100 speed bumps should help. Been driving that road daily for a couple decades but avoid like plague now.
Market is just really slow now. It typically slows a lot this time of year and that’s been amplified by rates and markets. If you want to go now and house isn’t perfect you need to get aggressive on price or wait till Spring
The other one on market is kinda wonky model IMO and lot is very substandard for that house. I remember it struggling years ago to sell also
The better ones still fly off
ParticipantIf it was my data Id be honored that you accept it but its from calculated risk where you can find some more. Inventory in absolute and the trend is the best leading indicator there is for pricing. It is the best most trackable measure of the balance between supply vs demand. The exact reasons dont matter and could be different each place. Its the trend which is unfavorable that matters. So what it means is those alleged CA destination markets are showing very strong signs of large price declines to come while SD continues to be perhaps the strongest market in the country.
I included Santa Clara also as its one of the prime coastal markets and would have included LA if the data was there. I didnt include Sacto which had numbers but is more of fleeing high cost CA market and has more incommon as a place and the inventory trend is similar to LV/PHX/NVille than SD. There wasnt good FLA data but what seems to be going on there is more the great resignation/earlier than expected retirement gang then WFH crowd.
You keep talking about CA losing population of techies but have provided nary a single data point. Its CA for chrissakes! There are and always have been people coming and going here. Its what we do here! So while we lose some techies, we birth as many or more techies on an ongoing basis. Encinitas has 2 $1B+ unicorn companies at the moment. Those were unheard of in SD just a few years ago and now we have TWO at Mayberry by the Beach! SD economically is in boom times and looks to continue the same for quite some time
BTW at last count we have about 8400 homeless in SD. Thats a colossal tragedy for them and they seem to be mostly congregated in high profile downtown areas but in the grand scheme of things is a pretty small number and has no effect on our economy. It only makes for good fodor for right wing nut jobs who leave a place that treated them very well but prefer to take backhanded swipes on their way out the door about political climates they dont agree with
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