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sdrealtor
Participant[quote=Pbranding][quote=The-Shoveler]I have never seen the media so intent on causing a housing market decline, every other article seems to be predicting housing crash LOL.
IMO people waiting for a housing crash like 2008-11 will probably be disappointed.[/quote]
Not 2008-11 but definitely going down and fast. I’m seeing frequent price drops in poway/scripps ranch/4s/Del Sur. Even SDR indicated a 10% give in the areas he follows closely. More rate hikes to come too.[/quote]
I would expect the poway/4s/sr to also have given back that 10%. I’d have to check to verify. It’s also important to remember that the last Bump came on the heels a very low volume so even with that give back there are very few people are in anything close to the negative position
ParticipantNew listings 12 (17) – a bit better than last week but still low.
New Pendings of 18 (28) – bargain hunting buyers seem to have come back in small numbers
Thats -6
Closed sales at 10 (25)
Total houses for sale 125 (64)
Inventory dropped a bit more. Of note, this week last year inventory dropped from 86 to 64 due to a surge in pendinings and sellers taking homes on the market that didnt sell quickly. I expect more of the later this year to be increasingly common too. While its gonna take some work, dropping below 100 by Labor Day would not shock me.
ParticipantCatching up on what I didnt have time to post Tuesday
New listings 7 (10)
New Pendings of 11 (9)
Closed sales at 11 (13)
Inventory at 32 (22)
Again no surge in new inventory and pendings have been up the last 2 weeks. With better pricing it looks like some buyers are coming back. Inventory dipped the last week and is now about 25% below July peak inventory level. Also gap between last year and this year inventory seems to be narrowing.
ParticipantI ran the data but I’m out in the desert to catch a concert with my daughter and don’t have the historical data with me. I’ll post when i get back on Thursday. Preview more of the same. Limited new inventory, Pendings greater than new. Inventory slowly dropping. And for what it’s worth I think these three ZIP Codes are a great bellwether for Southern California. I’m on a weekly pod cast with a Good housing economist who does the best job in Southern California. I think he’s often a little bit behind and while I don’t call him out on the webcast I do in private messages. He was saying inventory would keep rising until October and I told him he was wrong and that it would peek by mid or early August. Two weeks ago I told him he was going to have to revise his Forecast soon. He disagreed then but changed it last week. I gave him a good ribbing privately lol
ParticipantBeen real busy with stuff so not sure if I’ll get to update this week. If not I checked some prelim numbers. Looking more and more like sellers strike. New listings are very low and pendings are out numbering them. Peak inventory seems to be in ouor rear view mirror
August 12, 2022 at 8:58 AM in reply to: East County SD v St George for gzz’s budget McMansion lifestyle #826555ParticipantYes what i said just with lawyerly bs added
ParticipantVeggies suck unless from Chino farms. No compromise
August 11, 2022 at 8:57 PM in reply to: East County SD v St George for gzz’s budget McMansion lifestyle #826548ParticipantBy definition lawyers think they are always right. It’s the job description yet as we’ve seen here worse than a coin flip
ParticipantIm about to grill dry aged sirloin burgers and have a lovely cab in the decanter. I’m Dogsitting my daughters puppy and teaching her to catch a frisbee. Such joy in these simple pleasures. Guess i won’t invite you.
August 11, 2022 at 7:00 PM in reply to: East County SD v St George for gzz’s budget McMansion lifestyle #826542ParticipantI prefer the stories about the cases you were wrong about and lost
ParticipantNew listings 7 (8)
New Pendings of 10 (9)
Closed sales at 4 (9)
Inventory at 38 (20) with median of 985K (875K)
Looking back inventory here has been more or less flat for 5 weeks.
pendings. This year 32 new listings and 27 pendings this july. Last year there were 36 new listings and 29 pendings this julyParticipantNew listings 9 (23) – even lower number. Looks like we may have a seller strike on our hands as I beleived we might. Will keep following this
New Pendings of 12 (34) – buyers aint playing either
Thats -3
Closed sales at 20 (24)
Total houses for sale 132 (86) with median of $1.95M (1.985M)
Inventory basically flat for 5 weeks now.
Last July we had 97 new listings and 107 pendings. Last July we had 67 new listings and 76 pendings.
ParticipantNew listings 16 (23) – another low number. Looks like this is the eay its gonna be
New Pendings of 21 (18) – slight bump, gettin in before school starts
Thats -5
Closed sales at 16 (16)
Total houses for sale 129 (91) with median of $1.95M (didnt record it last year)
Last week was actually 131 inventory
Last year this was the peak inventory week. This year we’ve been pretty flat the last 4 weeks.
August 10, 2022 at 6:02 PM in reply to: BULLISH: new SD MLS listings down 20.8% YoY; July CPI-U inflation is 0% #826535ParticipantThats not bullish because sales are down much more. Its a buyer v seller stalemate market adjusting to the remove the low rate/low inventory gains that IMO were ill gotten this year. Ive been writing about it for months.
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