[sdrealtor]

New listings 4 (9)

New Pendings of 6 (9)

Closed sales at 6 (13)

Inventory at 24 (12) with median of 949 (929)

More of the same here. Of note the median list price is edging closer and closer to being flat y-o-y and should be negative in a month based upon current trends and last year. Of course rates were around 3% last year so still adavantage to purchasers then

Saw a great but losing effort by my Phillies on Tuesday at Petco but oh boy did I see an incredible one Sunday night at Citizens Bank:)

[sdrealtor]

I walk a few miles daily. You’re CA experience is not mine

[sdrealtor]

They recently opened it between Cardiff and Solana Beach

[sdrealtor]

Great hiking and biking trails throughout Carlsbad

EP has some nice rentals in SG for you

[sdrealtor]

Id be remiss if I didnt mention it will be warmer in SD today than St George. Today I will be enjoying the NLCS in person. Perhaps there is a rodeo or sheep shearing contest today in St George

[sdrealtor]

New listings 2 (4)

New Pendings of 5 (10)

Closed sales at 5 (7)

Inventory at 28 (12) with median of 980 (918)

MM just keeps chugging along with inventory gradually being depleted. Inventory up in NCC is off 25% from July peak while its down 36% here. Id credit the more affordable housing combined with the ongoing gentrification in MM with lots of new commerical being added along MM Blvd as well as 3 Roots. The sense I get is this area will hit its floor before mine and may not be that far off it

Time to go watch some baseball at Petco

[sdrealtor]

New listings 15 (15) – a little more coming on market

New Pendings of 12 (19) – and little selling

Thats +3

Closed sales at 15 (31)

Total houses for sale 98 (49) with median of $1.799M ($2.4M).

Watching the way I do sometimes I just feel things the in the data points that dont quite show up in the data.

A few things I see. New listings ticked up a touch and it was the highest count in 2 1/2 months. Pendings continue to lag.

The big drop in the median lisitng price y-o-y seems to be due to lots of high end homes coming on the market last year. In the past there was little to no market for them but now there has been the last year or two. The high end market up here is as strong or stronger than the more standard offerings.

I still believe we wont see a flood of inventory with people locked in low mortgages and having huge potential cap gains bills. However there are and will continue to be a decent amount of long time homeowners who are only too happy to take the money. There are tons of folks up here that paid 300-500K 20+ years ago for homes that hit $2 – 3M last Spring that are now back into 1.5 to 2.5M. Thats still plenty for some long timers and the excess would be taxed horribly anyway.

Again dont see a flood but do see enough coming to continue exherting downward pressure next year.

[sdrealtor]

We are always on the bleeding edge of the real estate trends here in SD both up and down

[sdrealtor]

[quote=matt]This is an interesting transaction history. What’s going on here sdrealtor?

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/2901-Segovia-Way-92009/home/4083425?600390594=copy_variant&231528114=control&1778901559=variant&utm_source=ios_share&utm_medium=share&utm_nooverride=1&utm_content=link&utm_campaign=share_sheet%5B/quote%5D

Here you go. First the house. Nothing has been done to it in 20 years, its located on a fairly busy neighborhood feeder street, has a smallish yard that is all concrete and pool. Some of this can be fixed but some cant. It took almost a year to sell in the raging 04/05 market and then about 6 months in the solid 2018 market. Its just not a great property for the model and community.

Now what happened. Owner lists house in mid-May for 2.5M (which a slight stretch that may have been possible in March/April) and quickly realizes market has changed. After lowering to 2.375M in a couple weeks they realize market has changed and sell it to Open Door.

Open Door gives them 2.5 minus their fees which nets to 2.3ish in early June. OD just values based upon size, location, pool, neighborhood comps without understanding the finer points that make it a bit of an albatross.

The market comes to crashing halt immediately after they close and now they are stuck with a relatively tough to sell house for the neighborhood with some things that can be fixed and others that cant in a declining market.

[sdrealtor]

And only six letters

[sdrealtor]

Sadly we weren’t all born into inherit apartment complex, entitlement helps

[sdrealtor]

Yes to all. It is nominal. Yes more with inflation but its only a few months so how much inflation was there in those months? Yes we are basically back around where we started the year so net net few are impacted

[sdrealtor]

Nah its unfolding exactly how it wound up. I always beieved(and said so numerous times here) we would give back the Spring boom very quickly as it never felt real. It was insanity driven by low rates slamming against low inventory. I figure another 10%ish next year with a Fall 2023 bottom. We’ll be fine here

BTW we wont get those down 20%ish from peak numbers until Feb or March. I also think lower priced areas will hold up a bit better

[sdrealtor]

As for the market I hear lots of denial from colleagues but challenge any of them to show me a listing up here they sold in the last month that they couldnt have gotten at least 10% more in Spring. Here’s a good example. These two are 5 houses apart on the same side of the same street

This house listed early March and closed early April with multiple offers for $1.955M. Its mostly original condition and in need of a full makeover. Its the Plan 3 in its tract but its a very wonky floorplan that has always struggled to resell (note: Ive listed a few of these over the years). It backs to open space but the further you get to this end the more road noise you get and its a substandard size lot for the canyon lots. its also been a rental the last several years.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/2235-Paseo-Saucedal-92009/home/4081200

This house is listed now. They started at $1.699M went into escrow after a couple weeks and fell out. Its at $1.629M now. Its in mostly original condition but does have some a bit more updating. Its the Plan 2 in its tract which while slightly less sq ft uses the space much better and has always sold very quickly. It backs to open space but its further from the road noise and its has a better yard size in back. Its never been a rental

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/2255-Paseo-Saucedal-92009/home/4083021

It would be an understatement to say I know these homes well and how they have sold over the years. I could make a strong case that the one on the market would sell for more head to head but lets throw that out. Someone could make the case the other is bigger however there is no case that the one that sold in Spring could sell for more. Lets call them equal and say it sell for full asking (both a stretch IMO).

$1.955 – $1.629/$1.955 = 16.7% decline under the the most favorable of situations right here right now.

Oh and there is this one that sold the same time as #1. Its in the middle of the two houses. Same model as #2 with good but not great updating and pool that consumes most of the yard. It sold for $2.15M

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Carlsbad/2243-Paseo-Saucedal-92009/home/4081195

We’ll be down close to 20% by y/e from the peak up here if not already. Book it

[sdrealtor]

Glad to see others enjoy it. The thread keeps me looking at the market the same way each week and helps me find inflection points. If I had to guess now I think Spring will see well below average listing volume. The question i cant guess is how many buyers will be left?

[Author]

Posts