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sdrealtor
ParticipantNew listings 8 (17) – back down it goes
New Pendings of 19 (15) – demand is rising
Thats +2
Closed sales at 9 (17)
Total houses for sale 49 (31) with median of $2.5M ($2.35M). Two years ago there were 53 on the market with a median around $2M.
This week 2 years ago we got 30 new listings. This week we got 8. It feels like sellers are digging in even deeper. Houses coming on the market are very skewed toward someone died or someone is leaving the area.
Looking at went pending this past week Im seeing houses that had languished on the market for a long time selling. Houses on the market 60+, 90+, 180+ days and even some that have been on the market for over a year if not years. The inventory is that thin right now
ParticipantNew listings 5 (4) –
New Pendings of 3 (5) –
Thats +2
Closed sales at 2 (5)
Total houses for sale 13 (7) with median of $1.075M ($1.075M). There were 7 on the market 2 years ago with a 770K median.
MM starting to get a few more but generally speaking new listings are slightly below last year. Pricing feels about the same as last year this time but should go negative soon as we compare to those peak Spring 22 months soon
ParticipantInventory still falling not rsing
ParticipantI feel for you and anyone trying to move here. Its especially tough now but truth be told it has always been tough the 30 or so years Ive been here. I bought my first primary here in 97 and it felt ridicuously expensive. I moved up to my current home in 99 and thought I was the dumbest guy on the planet paying what I did but hindsight has been very kind to me since. Its worse than buying a car or TV in that you never feel like you got a great deal here.
With some many of us homeowners comfortably locked into low rate 30 year loans I dont see a pathway to a full crash anytime soon. However the market is becoming more seasonal than it has ever been. I think there will be good opportunties coming again this Fall and perhaps the Fall after.
ParticipantHeading into the weekend in peak season here with one 3BR house on the market below $1M. If there wasnt rain expected there would be a traffic jam there
ParticipantHere we sit heading into what should be peak season. We’ve got 6 houses here for sale below $1.5M and 8 houses here at $5M+. Dunno?
February 24, 2023 at 9:19 AM in reply to: Money markets at Schwab now above 4%, tax-free muni now above 3% #901809ParticipantCorrect. Most people with the capital to invest in this country are professionally advised or well educated. The general public investors he’s referring to don’t exist to any real extent
ParticipantThat’s all good and nice but you know what we really want to know. What vehicle did you get?
ParticipantThis is also a premium on a new home. People will always pay more to be the first person to use the….
ParticipantNew listings 13 (12) – finally a number more in line with what we should be getting
New Pendings of 11 (15) – demand is steady
Thats +2
Closed sales at 10 (19)
Total houses for sale 52 (25) with median of $2.2M ($2.35M). Two years ago there were 49 on the market with a median around $2M. It feels like we are back around 2021 and could settle there
Looking at what is coming on the market the lowest priced sfr was $1.65M. Most of what is coming on is skewed to higher end.
Prices feel higher than Fall but not running either direction. The good ones attract attention from the strongest buyers. Its a tough market for those in the lower half of the market with not many entry level to first move up homes hitting the market. People staying put
ParticipantNew listings 4 (4) –
New Pendings of 5 (10) –
Thats -1
Closed sales at 2 (3)
Total houses for sale 12 (4) with median of $1M ($945k). There were 5 on the market 2 years ago with a 750K median.
MM seems to be settling in with listing counts slightly lower but similar to last and prior years
The homes under $1M are selling while those over are sitting unless special. I could see the market slog along like this for next few months. Not expecting a flood but pricing seems to be holding firm in the sub $1M market. Eventually the higher priced homes should capitulate in Summer/Fall possibly bringing the market down a touch then. But overall this is a stable market and should be for a while to come. People are mostly content to stay put
ParticipantQuiet Sunday so I did some playing around. My community is large with more than 1000 homes. I looked back 20 years how many homes were listed each Winter between November 1st and Today (February 19th). The community is about 25 years old.
Back in the first several years there were alot more folks that moved up or away as we had a nice appreciation of about 50% the first 4 or 5 years.
Over that period from 11/1 to 2/19:
There would be 20 to 30 listed the first several years
During the bubble it was usually between 15 and 20
During the bubble burst it was around 15/year (many distressed sales)
Over the last decade there have been 1 or 2 higher or lower counts but for the most part it has consistently been 8 to 12 homes listed.
Since November 1st of last year there have been 2 homes listed for sale. One just closed and the other took it off the market after a month. Maybe they try again later maybe not.
The one that sold had 3 Bay Area families fighting for it. It closed 10% over asking and within 10% of last Spring peak. In the Fall it would have likely sold as much as 10% below asking. How quickly things can change and how much low supply can impact pricing.
The total sales on the MLS from 2012 through 2022 (full years) was 469 homes (some of which are repeat sales).
Thats about 47/year.
I think we should get into the teens but its possible that there will be under 10 sales this year.
ParticipantUpdate time. If the Mira Mesa update showed strength this one is downright terrifying. This is Super Bowl week which used to kick off the selling season. If we dont see a big uptick in listing inventory this week we are going back up in prices
New listings 5 (12) – here we are a month and 1/2 into the year and not only arent we getting more we get the lowest number this year
New Pendings of 15 (18) – demand is starting to amp up
Thats -10
Closed sales at 7 (8)
Total houses for sale 47 (24) with median of $2.2M ($2.4M). Two years ago there were 52 on the market
Inventory dropped a good amount this week. We had 5 houses listed and 3 were 50+ year old homes in need of redo or tear down. Recent buyers, as in the last couple decaders are staying put!
This is now conducive to rising home prices. We need inventory and we need it now to keep things in check
ParticipantNew listings 3 (6) –
New Pendings of 4 (9) –
Thats -1
Closed sales at 4 (4)
Total houses for sale 11 (7) with median of $1M ($940k). There were 10 on the market 2 years ago with a 770K median.
We’ve gotten a max of 5 new listings in a week this year but 3 or less the other weeks. One of the new listings was bought last Summer so plans changed and not someone settled in with ultra low rate.
Inventory is where it was 2 years ago but prices are holding much higher than back then.
The great dig in and stay put continues
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