North County Coastal monitor

[sdrealtor]

I feel for you and anyone trying to move here. Its especially tough now but truth be told it has always been tough the 30 or so years Ive been here. I bought my first primary here in 97 and it felt ridicuously expensive. I moved up to my current home in 99 and thought I was the dumbest guy on the planet paying what I did but hindsight has been very kind to me since. Its worse than buying a car or TV in that you never feel like you got a great deal here.

With some many of us homeowners comfortably locked into low rate 30 year loans I dont see a pathway to a full crash anytime soon. However the market is becoming more seasonal than it has ever been. I think there will be good opportunties coming again this Fall and perhaps the Fall after.

[sdrealtor]

Inventory still falling not rsing

[sdrealtor]

New listings 8 (17) – back down it goes

New Pendings of 19 (15) – demand is rising

Thats +2

Closed sales at 9 (17)

Total houses for sale 49 (31) with median of $2.5M ($2.35M). Two years ago there were 53 on the market with a median around $2M.

This week 2 years ago we got 30 new listings. This week we got 8. It feels like sellers are digging in even deeper. Houses coming on the market are very skewed toward someone died or someone is leaving the area.

Looking at went pending this past week Im seeing houses that had languished on the market for a long time selling. Houses on the market 60+, 90+, 180+ days and even some that have been on the market for over a year if not years. The inventory is that thin right now

[sdrealtor]

Lets compare Feb activity to past Feb in 2021 and 2022

2021
New Listings 116
New Pendings 138

2022
New Listings 48
New Pendings 64

2023
New Listings 34
New Pendings 60

I think this gives some persepctive to how hunkered down people are around here.

[sdrealtor]

Update time w/ last year in parentheses

New listings 15 (16) – we got more but did we? Almost all $2M+

New Pendings of 16 (25) – demand is steady but clearly not last year

Thats -1

Closed sales at 16 (21)

Total houses for sale 49 (25) with median of $2.388M ($2.35M). Two years ago there were 59 on the market with a median around $2M.

Looking at what is on the market the pickings below $2M are very slim. Most of what is there has been languishing unsold due to being priced too high or just undesireable (location or condition). A low pending count this week ahead would not surprise

[Honeybadger]

Thanks sdrealtor for your regular updates! The data and especially your commentary are very helpful.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 11 (18) – ytd we’ve been running around 30% below last year. It could be this way for a while

New Pendings of 14 (19) – 5 were above $3M (3 were above $5M and 1 was above $7M). High end was active!

Thats -3

Closed sales at 17 (22)

Total houses for sale 51 (31) with median of $2.195M ($1.985M). Two years ago there were 52 on the market with a median around $2M.

While still very limited we have better offerings below $2M than we’ve had in a while. Could be a decent week ahead as we head into Spring

[sdrealtor]

New listings 12 (19) – still running around 30% below last year. It could be this way for a while

New Pendings of 15 (25) – 4 were above $3M. High end active!

Thats -3

Closed sales at 12 (18)

Total houses for sale 46 (29) with median of $2.344M ($2.3M). Two years ago there were 49 on the market with a median around $1.71M.

Having better offerings below $2M helped this week.

I remember years back unsuccessfully trying to convince CA Renter that this place had fundamentally changed. That it had left its working class roots far behind and was on its way to being San Diego’s Newport Beach. I think today even she would have a tough time disputing this

I just see no way we re-visit pre-pandemic pricing.

With the inventory as tight as it is, rates as high as they are and uncertainty in the economy Id imagine the rental market is insanely hot up here also. May have to look into that with some that might know better

[sdrealtor]

Today is broker caravan day. In years past the broker caravan tour around this time of year would have 25 to 40 homes to go see.

Today?

One!

Let that sink in. One

[barnaby33]

Short and sweet! How was it?
Josh

[sdrealtor]

I only go to talk to other agents to get a gauge on the market so not worth the time unless there is a few. In 2 weeks I expect inventory will be down here over last year. That’s astonishing

• This reply was modified 2 months, 2 weeks ago by sdrealtor.

[sdrealtor]

New listings 13 (17) – well below last year but only 20% below. mild improvement

New Pendings of 12 (25) – chugging along

Thats +1

Closed sales at 17 (21)

Total houses for sale 45 (27) with median of $2.3M ($2.3M). Two years ago there were 57 on the market with a median around $1.9M.

Inventory started increasing in April last year. Hopefully it does this year also. I could see inventory being down y-o-y in mid April and expect it to be in Mid-May

• This reply was modified 2 months, 1 week ago by sdrealtor.

[sdrealtor]

Some data to chew on 4 weeks of March data

2021

New listings 103
Pendings 141
Closed 94

2022

New listings 70
Pendings 94
Closed 82

2023

New listings 51
Pendings 57
Closed 52

The drop off in new listings is astounding here. Half of what we had 2 years ago! The drop in pendings is even more astounding!

I take a few things away from that.

There is much less coming on the market this year. Sellers are digging in and not moving around. The market is mostly estates and people leaving the area. The move up/move down/move around town market is anemic this year.

The lack of new inventory is limiting sales. Pendings are much lower and its gotta be putting a big hurt on a lot of agents around here. The ranks will continue to thin out

Prices are holding up pretty well because of low inventory. If there was a flood we’d be in trouble.

I dont expect a flood but we should get a fair amount more. That should put pressure on prices again in Fall up here. Guess we’ll have to watch and wait to see what happens

[barnaby33]

I know this thread is NCC, but are there any areas which are exhibiting behaviour that would more directly align with economic stress ie: layoffs and higher interest rates?
Josh

[sdrealtor]

I don’t follow others close enough except possibly Mira Mesa which could fit that but definitely does not. Things seem tight everywhere. SD might be the most inventory constrained market in the country

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