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March 30, 2007 at 11:12 PM in reply to: Free gas for a year with the purchase of this house in Murrieta #48817
sdrealtor
ParticipantIf you came here looking for an answer your probably ready to hang up your real estate license. Sounds like you already have your mind made up and it’s time to go….
ParticipantSD R
I thought you were on vacation?ParticipantThey are probably running out of money.
ParticipantBetween late reporters and EOM closings we could see as many as 400 more. I’d be surprised to see substantially more but not substantially less.
ParticipantNSR,
The SFR market in North Coastal running from Carmel Valley/Del Mar to Carlsbad (I dont look at RSF or Oceanside as being part of this market as they are very different places than the others) had the following July volume:1996 – 161
1997 – 220
1998 – 224
1999 – 232
2000 – 167
2001 – 225
2002 – 276
2003 – 328
2004 – 287
2005 – 228
2006 – 175
2007 – ?In what I’d consider a normal market here sales should fall between 225 and 250 for July. I dont know if we’ll get there because of a lack of inventory not demand in these areas. If there was better inventory at these price levels I could add 5 or so to the sales count.
I’d wager a beer that this July is better last.
SDR
ParticipantRockem,
He deserves a break;)NSR,
In some areas like the South Bay it is looking like it will be down 40 to 50%. Overall it’s looking like 25% down in the attached market and 28% in the detached market. Final stats take at least a week or two after month end to have any reliability due to late reporters. Also end of months tend to be very busy for closings so it could get alot better or alot……ParticipantNo problem Rock,
I just get a little ornery some time. If its the one I think,y ou’ve g ot g ood r epresentation. 😉
Just dont underestimate the impact of the new subprime borrowing guidelines in that market. Short sales are popping up all over the place in that market for hispanic homeowners that were put in homes they never should have bought with 100% sub prime financing. My best advice would not be to position oneself as “one of the best price/sq ft” but rather at the price level where things are actually selling. For most of the last year there have been 100+ attached properties for sale in 92024 and less than 20 in escrow at any given time with many of the sales at the beach.
Best of Luck
SDR
ParticipantRockem,
Dont be so confident. Encinitas condos are by far the weakest part of the market I described as being relatively healthy. Sellers are too slow to reduce prices there and there arent many sales happening in the 92024 condo market because you can get better for alot less nearby. I dont know what you’ve got but I did some research for attached properties east of ECR 2 weeks ago and found that about 70% purchased in 2006 were done with 5% or less down (most were 100% financed). With the recent sub prime issues, 2/3rd of your potential buyers just vanished. Cut your losses and get out now while you can.SDR
ParticipantPS,
You also forgot that you invented the Internet!
;)SDR
ParticipantIn general, I consider the low end to be condos between 300K and 450K. Typical buyers here are renters looking to buy something that should probably stay renters. In the detached market the low end is up to about $650K. Typical buyers here are young couple that should probably be starting in a townhouse but think they have good jobs with upward mobility and they deserve a house. Please remember that these are just generalizations/stereotypical descriptions. It is also in my neck of the woods and it could be different elsewhere.
ParticipantShort sales 1,566 heading up again from 1,506 last week!
Total SD County Listings 15,317 and heading up from 15,111 last week. Regardless of the roughly 1,000 listings that vanished a couple weeks ago from the MLS- inventory is heading up again albeit quite slowly.
In the North County Coastal market that I watch closely, Inventory is very stable right now. Very little new listings are coming on the market. Most of what I am seeing hit the market is either low end ($700K and under in this area) or over $1M. Nice homes in the middle are selling well at prices about 5% below last years prices and are in relatively short supply.
For example, a bread and butter product in the portion of South Carlsbad that falls in the Encinitas School District are newer 4+BR homes built in the last 10 years with at least 2400 sq ft. Right now there are only 2 homes like this below $900,000 and 6 in escrow. This product is always in high demand among relo buyers and there is virtually nothing on the market.
I dont get to speak with as many agents as I used to due to competing buisness interests but I spoke with several agents this morning. Open house traffic and showings dropped quite a bit in the last week. There was a definite surge in activity/sales the 1st 2 weeks in March but that appears to be waning now. I have also heard of several escrows going south because buyers cant qualify/get loans on low end properties.
ParticipantDefinitely:
a) consistently seeing pricing that is at or below 2004 levels.
The challenge beyond this is that there is no such thing as 2003 pricing. Prices moved dramatically higher throughout 2003 before taking a HUGE leap between Dec 2003 and Feb 2004. To refer to 2003 pricing you really need to specify what month.
We will hit prices levels on the way down that we never hit on the way up due to the size of the jumps we saw. As an example, in my area homes that sold for the high 600’s/low 700’s in Fall 2003 sold in mid 800’s in early Spring 2004. It was insane how fast things gapped up.
ParticipantSDbear,
Other guy here. My view and comments are essentially identical to Adam’s. I just report facts with an occassional hypothesis of what might happen given these facts and what I see anecdotally. Pretty much everything Adam says I agree with pertaining to the market and the market forces at play. I am hardly bullish on the market in the next several years though not as bearish as many around these parts.SDR
FYI: Sorry but you are a little late! If you check back on my posts I declared we were back at 2004 prices and in some cases late 2003 prices 6 months ago!
ParticipantAnx,
Do you not see the obvious problems with your question?Lots of growth does not equal inexpensive.
Not crashing anytime soon equals stable prices and not likely to go up much either.
But most importantly, you just put on your speculator hat!
Take it off and find a place you want to live and build your life there. If that means renting for a while longer so be it. That is the best advice you’ll get anywhere.
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