Powayseller in Bloomberg

[waiting hawk]

““People who bought homes in the 1980s and 1990s started refinancing their equity out in the 2000s, so we can’t assume that foreclosures will only affect people who bought their homes in the last couple of years,” said Schahrzad Berkland, who publishes the California Housing Forecast in San Diego. “And a lot of adjustable-rate mortgages were taken out by prime borrowers, so we can’t assume that the more qualified borrowers will be immune to losing their homes.” ”

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601170&sid=aVxSiOci7qco&refer=home

[PerryChase]

Way to go powayseller!

The quote from powayseller shows that she’s thinking a little bit ahead of the market.

I think that many prime borrowers will be caught in this downward spiral. The questions is how many? And how will that affect prices and the economy? We won’t know until we’d faced the facts in a couple of years as the loans reset.

[no_such_reality]

Nice pair of statements from RealtyTrac…
Most homeowners who enter the foreclosure process do not lose their homes, said Rick Sharga, vice president for marketing at RealtyTrac.

“Of the properties that enter our database as initial notice of default, only 40 percent of them actually go to the auction,” Sharga said in an interview

That puts some perspective on just how motivated the sellers with NODs need to be. Given recent numbers, we already at looking at 15% or more of the monthhly sales being foreclosures.

[PerryChase]

Good point, no_such_reality. According to RealtyTrac, we can count on 40% of NODs going to auction. I wonder if that 40% number is national. If so, I’d be curious to know the number for California.

[woodrow]

Excellent work PowaySeller. Thumbs up!

[davelj]

Bloomberg quotes Powayseller, who 95% of the time is merely regurgitating something someone else already said. She’s much more of a subjective reporter than an objective analyst.

So I guess that’s the state of news reporting today. You quote person A who’s quoting person B who’s quoting person C, and so on.

Frankly, I’d prefer they skipped the middle-(wo)men and went straight to the real sources. But I’m funny that way.

[PerryChase]

Give powayseller some slack. Who do you know in the news that’s not quoting somebody else? If you think about it, everyone is full of bull. The NAR predits 2% price appreciation; and some economists predict 4% growth; Bush says that the surge is working. Do they provide proof? No, they just pull the info out of thin air. It’s up to you to believe it or not.

Like her style of not, Powayseller is one of the first to write about the subprime meltdown and the loan resets.

At least she goes out on a limb to make hard-hitting predictions that may turn out to be right or wrong. But at least she’s making those predictions.

To return to the quote above, powayseller is one of first to predict a problem with all ARMs (not just subprime). If a substantial number of long time homeowners get into trouble then the effects on RE prices will be long lasting.

[anxvariety]

Powayseller is cool.. I think usually if people have others mad at them, then theyre stirring the pot – good in my opinion.. but I checked out her site and I only found one link to piggington tucked away in a long list of links.. seems like this site deserves more credit than that.

[ibjames]

what’s her site url?

I agree, I think this site should get some credit

Nice to see one of our own getting in print though

[Anonymous]

Perry, I think it’s time for your dog’s daily linen change of his bed.

Powayseller provided little to to analytical insight when she posted here; regurge and link, largely. And, she continues to prove inept with statistics: ‘Foreclosures are a lagging indicator.’

Of what? Sentiment? Who cares.

Of price drops? Wrong, foreclosures are a LEADING indicator: as foreclosures increase, prices decrease. That’s what matters, because folks want to buy at low prices.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

I applaud her ability to draw attention. Making prognostications of 67% declines in the median price of San Diego homes or 53% drops in the stock market within 6 months are not intended to be accurate, they are intended to draw attention. Mission Accomplished !

Personally I am waiting to celebrate her genius and prognostication ability until the median price of a San Diego single family home drops to 180K or perhaps when the S&P 500 hits 600 later this spring, summer, fall or winter.

Here is a web link to her recent material … Something about a weightlifter and taking 50 years to get back to today’s prices.

http://www.californiahousingforecast.com/commentary/2007/3/26/san-diego-single-family-home-price-likely-to-fall-to-180k.html

[speaker]

Have any of the “Powayseller” haters been quoted in bloomberg?

Stop playa-hating…

“End of line.”

[PerryChase]

I don’t focus on what powayseller is saying as much as I give her credit for her predictions and voicing her opinions.

NASDAQ 5000? $1 million median in California? Decline to $180k? To me it’s not anymore outlandish to predict steep declines than to say that it’s always a good time to buy real estate.

How about a $500k mortgage for $1400/mo? Mortgage brokers make that claim everyday. Doesn’t that sound out of this world?

[powayseller]

My Bloomberg quote was original. Haven’t read anyone else saying that oldtimers have refinanced their equity out, even prime foreclosure rate will be high, that foreclosures are lagging, that housing prices will fall 50%, that housing prices depend on supply and demand, that population decline is continuing and leading to lower demand, credit crunch would lower housing demand (as is happening now), 8% of all homes on MLS are short sales, housing prices are not dropping because the stupid buyers are bidding on the same few good homes, and much much more. None of the previous have been written anywhere else.

jg, foreclosures and recessions are lagging indicators. NODs released by RealtyTrac now, are for NODs recorded in February, which are for payments not made in November, December, and January. So the guy not paying his mortgage since November is only now getting noted as having an NOD. Credit Suisse report from last week noted the 1 year lag from no payment to REO! So your regression analysis, which is exactly like the regression analysis I did in 1988 as part of my MBA work in Phoenix is very good, but not as good as supply and demand. I hope that someday your religion will bring you inner peace. Your comments, full of hostility toward me (what have I ever done to you??), show that church alone cannot bring fulfillment.

[sdcellar]

Huh? Caculated Risk has been talking about MEW for as long as I can remember (which admittedly isn’t *that* long), but you’re hardly the first source I ever heard it from. Maybe you didn’t know that it stands for Mortgage Equity Withdrawal, figured they’ve been talking about something else, so you invented the concept?

We’ve all been talking about all kinds of people (and credit scores) going into foreclosure. Nobody that I know of limited it to sub-prime. That’s just what’s in the news right now.

Congratulations on being quoted (as I’m *sure* they wouldn’t ask me for my opinion), but to suggest that you uncovered all of this–Come on!

To make it clear, I think you have plenty of original thoughts, but you’re standing on the shoulders of others as much as anybody. I mean, have you checked out this site?

[Author]

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