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sdrealtor
ParticipantAW C’MON!
Sounds like a FREE lunch offer……
ParticipantI dont know the exact figure but I believe the actual number of “specuvestors” in SD county was relatively low.
That is not to say that there wasnt rampant speculation in SD County. Several months ago Rich (our host) put together a great series about people speculating with their primary residences. That is the real problem we face as I see it. People bought homes they really couldnt afford with the false expectation that RE always goes up. However, these primary residence speculators will be prone to hang on longer than pure specuvestors. Just another thing that has me stuck on a slow painful ecline rather than a short and steep one.
ParticipantI dont know the exact figure but I believe the actual number of “specuvestors” in SD county was relatively low.
That is not to say that there wasnt rampant speculation in SD County. Several months ago Rich (our host) put together a great series about people speculating with their primary residences. That is the real problem we face as I see it. People bought homes they really couldnt afford with the false expectation that RE always goes up. However, these primary residence speculators will be prone to hang on longer than pure specuvestors. Just another thing that has me stuck on a slow painful ecline rather than a short and steep one.
Participantgn
I agree that many homes will end up back with the banks. The whole foreclosure process spans many months and frequently more than 1 year from the time a missed payment turns into an REO on the market. The banks are rational sellers but are always looking behind at past market conditions rather than ahead at what might be coming. Throw in relatively low inventory and it could be some time before they fell the need to radically reduce prices.I dont disagree with you or any of the other posters that it s coming but all I keep hearing “It’s coming”. I would really like to see someone lay out a realistic assumption as to how it could play out on the street level.
Participantgn
I agree that many homes will end up back with the banks. The whole foreclosure process spans many months and frequently more than 1 year from the time a missed payment turns into an REO on the market. The banks are rational sellers but are always looking behind at past market conditions rather than ahead at what might be coming. Throw in relatively low inventory and it could be some time before they fell the need to radically reduce prices.I dont disagree with you or any of the other posters that it s coming but all I keep hearing “It’s coming”. I would really like to see someone lay out a realistic assumption as to how it could play out on the street level.
ParticipantAN,
That is exactly what has been happeing the last few years with builders undercutting resales. I cant speak for other parts of the County but there is alot less new product on the market now. I believe this is one of the reasons my area has held up as well as it has. In the Coastal areas there just isnt enough new building going on rigth now to really haev amajor impact on pricing.ParticipantAN,
That is exactly what has been happeing the last few years with builders undercutting resales. I cant speak for other parts of the County but there is alot less new product on the market now. I believe this is one of the reasons my area has held up as well as it has. In the Coastal areas there just isnt enough new building going on rigth now to really haev amajor impact on pricing.ParticipantBugs,
Sounds like The Perfect Storm of bad sales data, rising foreclosures and negative media heading into seasonal slowness. All a very realistic scenario. My difficulty, which SD R no doubt shares, is seeing homesellers actually radically adjust their expectations so quickly. People hate change and resist it at all costs. Would that perfect Storm be enough to get them to do so? I just cant see it.As for the homebuilders, they would definitely be the first to jump ship!
ParticipantBugs,
Sounds like The Perfect Storm of bad sales data, rising foreclosures and negative media heading into seasonal slowness. All a very realistic scenario. My difficulty, which SD R no doubt shares, is seeing homesellers actually radically adjust their expectations so quickly. People hate change and resist it at all costs. Would that perfect Storm be enough to get them to do so? I just cant see it.As for the homebuilders, they would definitely be the first to jump ship!
ParticipantCyphire,
Just got back in town. I agree with your assessment of most buyers and am well aware that the 3 clinets I mentioned are far outside the norm. They were provided as examples of buyers that are still buying for good reasons. Admittedly, there are not many like them (relatively well off individals buying for lifecycle reasons).Based upon the information you provided I’m pretty sure of where you just sold. You were spot on in all your decisions. When built they were $1M tract homes on 2 acres lots and were never worth $2M IMO (same goes for the other neighborhood with originally priced 800K tract homes on 1/2 acre lots across from La Costa Canyon that you probably know well also). I beleive that anyone spending anywhere close to $2M should be getting a custom home built to their specifications not a 5000 sq ft tract house. I have a few friends/clients that covet both of thsoe neighborhoods and are waiting for better deals. I think their nuts to even consider them and ecourage them to buy land and build their own cheaper and better. It’s amazing but you can get nicer houses in parts of RSF for the same amount that they are asking for those. I also think you did the right thing on your pricing as you did and selling in less than 60 days. Historically those homes have taken 12 to 24 months to sell and now is not the time to be riding out the market with down side risks far outweighing any upside potential.
ParticipantCyphire,
Just got back in town. I agree with your assessment of most buyers and am well aware that the 3 clinets I mentioned are far outside the norm. They were provided as examples of buyers that are still buying for good reasons. Admittedly, there are not many like them (relatively well off individals buying for lifecycle reasons).Based upon the information you provided I’m pretty sure of where you just sold. You were spot on in all your decisions. When built they were $1M tract homes on 2 acres lots and were never worth $2M IMO (same goes for the other neighborhood with originally priced 800K tract homes on 1/2 acre lots across from La Costa Canyon that you probably know well also). I beleive that anyone spending anywhere close to $2M should be getting a custom home built to their specifications not a 5000 sq ft tract house. I have a few friends/clients that covet both of thsoe neighborhoods and are waiting for better deals. I think their nuts to even consider them and ecourage them to buy land and build their own cheaper and better. It’s amazing but you can get nicer houses in parts of RSF for the same amount that they are asking for those. I also think you did the right thing on your pricing as you did and selling in less than 60 days. Historically those homes have taken 12 to 24 months to sell and now is not the time to be riding out the market with down side risks far outweighing any upside potential.
ParticipantSorry for getting off track. And yes, beautifully said SD R.
ParticipantSorry for getting off track. And yes, beautifully said SD R.
ParticipantSorry buddy but you are mixing accents. We dont tawk we tuk.
SFR volume down about 20%
Attached volume down about 30%Median is anyone’s guess.
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