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sdrealtor
ParticipantSorry been busy and have some catching up to do. This is my pretty standard advice for someone like you in this situation.
If you have no tolerance for risk, sell it now.
If you have even mild tolerance for risk, keep the TH for now, rent it out and buy your next home.
It will be easier to buy your next home with the flexibility to not have a property to sell. Use that to your advantage!!
Rent it for 2 years, ideally 2 1/2 years. At that point decide if you want to be long term landlords.
If not you can still get $500K capital gain tax free, you’ve paid down loan more and you’ve been cash flow positive. Bonus you might get some appreciation. Target to get it on the market in early Spring 2026 if you are going to sell it.
If you find landlording to your liking/benefit/tolerance keep it long term and enjoy the passive income which grows over time as RE taxes and mortgage are basically fixed.
If further questions, feel free to PM
ParticipantI know those areas pretty well having done a bunch of business there over the years. They tended to mirror the NCC market for a long time. In the last couple years the coastal markets have shifted higher end. I beleive that is because there are more unique/custom type homes on larger parcels hitting the market in older areas. With that the coast has become a bit less predictable and prone to small booms/busts.
The inland area which is far more homogenous in housing units has become more predictable and probably even more solid. When you look at the homes built in the last couple decades in those areas up to $2Mish more than half sell the first week with multiple offers and 80%+ within 2 weeks. When things go over asking its $50K or less about half the time and maybe 50 to 100K over another 25% of the time. More than that is relatively rare. But the same thing is going on there. There are quite a few less buyers but even fewer sellers so the market is holding strong just under last years peak prices
Hope that helps and if you have more specific questions feel free to PM
ParticipantNew 24 (32) –
Pending 21 (18) –
Thats +3 –
Closed 15 (19) –
Total houses on the market 74 (111) with a median of 2.24M (2.08M). Two years ago 69 with median of $1.975
A few things of note. Last year there were 101 homes listed here the 5 weeks after the rate rise and only 93 this year so not as extreme a change as in MM.
Looking at the existing inventory I see a few things.
Overall its down 33%
The market under 2.5M remains strong. If the house is sitting its likely because they are too optimistic with pricing.
The market over 2.5M is where the inventory is building. There are a bunch of amazing properties on the market
Over 2.5M I see a bunch of high end flips hitting the market as well as high end homes making their 2nd, 3rd or 4th attempt to sell over the last year or two.
Its a bifurcated market along the NCC
ParticipantOk these are starting to get astounding
New listings 2 (7) –
New Pendings of 6 (6)
Thats -4
Closed sales at 3 (5)
Total houses for sale 7 (29) with median of $1.04M ($1.08M same as last week that was a typo).
There were 18 on the market 2 years ago with a 825K median.
Rates popped way up last year in mid May.
Over the next 5 weeks 44 homes came on the market.
This year those same 5 weeks? There were 14
Inventory is down over 75% y-o-y and over 60% from 2 years ago. Astounding
ParticipantNew 14 (20) – low listing counts continue sellers strike
Pending 28 (21) – pending best this year and well above last year
Thats -14 –
Closed 13 (16) –
Total houses on the market 67 (98) with a median of 2.175M (2.05M). Two years ago no data must’ve been traveling
A bunch of homes are going on market, not selling, getting cleaned/fixed up a bit and put back on at same price. Thats why inventory isnt dropping much when pendings are much higher than new listings this week
Inventory now 30% below last year
The $17M+ home on Neptune thats been on market a year or so just went into escrow. Lets see if it makes it closing. That’ll be a record
ParticipantNew listings 3 (5) –
New Pendings of 7 (5)
Thats -4
Closed sales at 0 (7)
Total houses for sale 10 (27) with median of $1.04M ($1.8M). No data point from 2 years ago, mustve been traveling
More of the same. Things are selling slowly but very little new listings coming on the market. Inventory over 60% below last year
ParticipantWhile i agree it’s a potential weakness, too many view commercial as office and to a lesser extent retail. There is so much more to it than that and even those won’t go to zero.
ParticipantPretty much the same for me. From the date of the original post through the end of 2021 I had an amazing run. Considering everything I own including real estate my net worth roughly tripled. I would not have wanted to miss that LOL.
The year of 2022 was horrible for me as it was for many others. My investment accounts lost around 20% that year though real estate made up much of that loss (even with the second half flash crash in real estate) for a net decline of about 5% across all assets.
But I just mostly stuck to what I do long term and changed very little in the second half and into this year. The investment accounts are up over 20% so far in 2023 and close to all time highs. That combined with the recovery in real estate from last years flash crash put my net worth at an all time high and 10% above where it ended 2021.
All things considered not much to complain about here. I like what I’m invested in going forward for the long term.
ParticipantHere we are 3 years later and there can be no doubt cast about this post. Enough time has passed that it is no longer possible to argue it was just early as so much has changed. Yes last year was a rough one for many asset classes but long term investors that held on should be right back around where they started.
When I get some time, I look forward to reading through it start to finish to see what else I can learn from it. Hope everyone is doing well
ParticipantCongrats and sounds like you have a good long term property to hold onto for your family
ParticipantIve seen plenty of mold in coastal homes but it not just mold. Its water damage which is the even bigger issue and why I listed it first. The coastal air can reek havoc on plumbing and pipes
ParticipantThe biggest source of insurance claims at least here is water damage and mold. Being that close to the sea creates risk of loss for that
ParticipantNew 16 (19) – last year was a very low number
Pending 18 (23) – pending sales a little better than last week
Thats -2
Closed 16 (17) –
Total houses on the market 67 (86) with a median of 2.25M (2.034M). Two years ago there were 54 on the market with a median around $2M.
As expected inventory gap between last year grew a bunch and should continue to do so. Not as tight as MM down south but very stagnant here also on both sides (supply & demand)
ParticipantNew listings 4(13) –
New Pendings of 4 (12)
Thats 0
Closed sales at 4(6)
Total houses for sale 12 (27) with median of $965K ($1.1M). There were 14 on the market 2 years ago with a 825K median.
I dont know that this market could be anymore balanced. A 4/4/4 week and inventory basically flat for 2 months. Inventory got to 44 last July and I dont think we’ll see 20 this year. Stagnant City
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