[sdrealtor]

In late April I opined we likely wouldnt reach 20 houses on the market. We are close to the peak inventory season and not even close.

New listings 3 (9) –

New Pendings of 7 (9)

Thats -4

Closed sales at 5 (5)

Total houses for sale 8 (37) with median of $1.15M ($1.04M).

That is about 20% of what we had last year. Sure doesnt seem as though people are leaving

Mira Mesa is a neighborhood in San Diego with a population of about 70,000. Former local economist tells us SD is going downhill with residents and businesses fleeing. There are 8 single family homes for sale here

Saint George is town in Southwestern Utah with a population of about 100,000. Former local economist tells us its a boom town with SD residents flocking there. When I search Redfin for houses in St George I get 795 houses are on the market.

For the non-economist readers 795 is more than 8.

In the last day alone 9 came on the SG market. Inventory is piling up quickly there.

It seems they are anticipating a rather large flock. Maybe someone should tell them….

[sdrealtor]

I take this all seriously and get offended when people who CA has been exceeding good to feel it necessary to bash it on the way out the door. I see it over and over again when people leaving because economically its not for them blame politics. We all know what we signed up for when we came here. Yes it has changed but most places have just as much. We go through cycles and sometimes people leave. But what we have here is so unique and special that as things cycle back they return and always will. You just need a longer vision which I have. I don’t think there is any better place to build generational wealth and long term real estate holdings then where I am. I’m doing it with an eye towards my children’s grandchildren and beyond.

There is a lot of conversation about pre-purposing commercial space. If only it was easy to do so into residential but nothing is easy. There is a shopping center near me that struggled for decades with poor frontage, design and parking. It was the place businesses went to die. I always wished they would just bulldoze it and build nice condo flats for folks to downsize into. Developers tried but the city wanted it to remain shopping center. After countless attempts its finally coming to life as a high end lifestyle center with mostly restaurants and the economics of the area have risen enough to support it. Was the city right to have the vision to hold out? Dunno? I still wish they built nice size flats in a 3 story building with parking below but I dont have vote

[sdrealtor]

I’m still floored. You had a contractors license. You understood economics. You were smart enough to appreciate the long term benefits of prop 13. You had the ability to finance it at record low rates. You were here decades ago. I think you had a real estate license. Why did you sell anything? Ever? Ever? You don’t have to live here but give your family the choice to in the future. It was all there for the taking . The taking

[sdrealtor]

It’s funny that you never respond to any of my data or facts.

My livelihood hasn’t depended upon selling real estate for a long time. I’ve not only told people not to buy here but in real life have talked people out of buying far more than I ever sold because it was the right thing to do. Ive  been following/posting data here and advising piggs for a very long time here. I’ve made many a lot of money and I’ve lost not one cent for a single one. Not one

My comments are spot on with Rich’s charts and data. In fact if you read my monitors my comments and analysis typically are 3-4 months ahead of his.

I’ve lost count of how many accurate forecasts or data interpretations I’ve made. I can’t remember you having one? you’ve been so wrong for so long it’s laughable. I’m calm and reaping what I’ve sown. It wasn’t hard. It really wasn’t. I just kept my eyes open and took what was there for the taking which is fraction of what was there for you.

Reality check: you are locked down in 110 degree weather hundreds of miles from civilization claiming to have some great insight but having failed to execute on it. Everything you’ve told us about your decisions indicate they have been extremely poor. You were here before all of us. You had the wherewithal and should be sitting on multiple beachfront properties but you live in Utah. Not even SLC but some fifth or sixth tier city where the only jobs are in slaughterhouses or building homes for people that work there. How can that go well?

And don’t think we didn’t notice you moving the goal posts by claiming 30% gains in 3 years not 2 1/2 years. If we go back another 6 months here our 30% gains become 60% gains.

You bring up politics to make excuses for your bad decisions. We can’t change the world. We can only make the best decisions for ourselves and our families. If you want to talk politics go to Truth Social. You talk about the demise of CA as if it’s written in stone . It is not. There are no Hollywood movies about moving to St. George. But moving to Coastal CA is and has long been the American dream. Some parts of CA will struggle but the Coastal communities offer something found only here. The winners in not just America but the world want to be here. Those that find it beyond their means have other places to go

fact check: You have a mortgage in St George likely much larger than mine in SD and a bigger tax bill. You’re older and had a front row seat long before me. you were here decades before me. I can’t begin to understand how poor your decisions must have been.

 

 

[sdrealtor]

Lastly, it constantly amazes me that you fail to grasp even the most basic of real estate concepts. When you buy real estate, you are not just buying a house! The house depreciates, and it is the land where the greatest value and opportunity lies. In a place like Saint George people trying to resell Homes will be competing with builders for decades, because there is no shortage of land. Look at what has happened in riverside county. When there are downturns it gets crooshed! Here in Southern California what you get for $1.5m is a very very valuable piece of land that is a limited commodity.

[sdrealtor]

I’m downtown often. Catch concerts at Rady Shell (neil young next week), broadway plays (Six this week) and pro sports often none of which you have access to. I hope you enjoy those views through windows because with todays 110 heat only a fool would go out.

My utilities this month for 5 br house

Electricity $0 solar long paid off

Gas $30

Water $55

there’s no way you are at 1/3rd of that.

and stop talking about taxes. All you had to do was stay put long term in this paradise and you would’ve enjoyed taxes as low or lower than you do there. Your real estate taxes are already much higher than mine. They will continue going up and mine will not.

And there you go, cherry, picking a single anecdotal data point when it serves your purposes after trying to chastise me for selecting the city, I reside in with a population nearly 50% larger than yours. But of course I did not “the appreciation in my city for you, but rather for San Diego, which was roughly 30% and much higher than Saint George, which has nothing but head winds ahead of it.

You constantly lean in on this political nonsense. Get over it it’s outside of your control. Make good decisions for yourself. the last 10 years the data does not reflect that you have with your real estate investments which would’ve far out performed Had you just left them in place here.

[sdrealtor]

I avoided nothing. San Diego proper is up 30%! Face it you blew it. SG has flat pricing, downward momentum and has fallen far behind considering inflation. The place you continue to bash has blossomed even more with a future even brighter 😎. Yet you continue to lean in on politics all the whole suffering financial losses

[sdrealtor]

One last data point before heading to the neighbors for cocktails and a swim.

Please allow me to roll some tape to when this all started. In late Feb 2021 you began this thread announcing you were about to leave. Its now just under 2 1/2 years later so lets see how we’ve both fared.

March 2021 the median home price in SG was $482,500

May 2023 the median home price in SG is $499,000

You have seen 3.5% appreciation since then falling far behind inflation.

In real terms you’ve gotten slaughtered!

 

March 2021 the median home price in Carlsbad was $1,041,500

May 2023 the median home price in Carlsbad is $1,432,500

I have seen 37.5% appreciation far outpacing inflation.

In real terms out of the park!

 

You let your politics get the better of your finances. Had you stayed put you’d have realized gains in excess of 30% in SD. This is based upon validated data not some political agenda

[sdrealtor]

Sorry for slow response but long day at the beach and needed get all the sand out of my britches. And thank you for your quick responses but with the oppressive heat there Im sure you are probably spending your days inside.

I do agree much of the blame lies with JPow and the Fed. The country was in a nice gentile recovery through 2016 until a change of administration pursuing growth at all costs was allowed to run amuck. Through 2019 all we heard was daily tweets about best economy ever, best stock market ever, tax cuts, lowest unemployment ever and more. However, in 2017 it was clear the country had recovered from the Great Recession and the Fed should have started raising rates to keep things on track. I blame JPow for allowing himself to be bullied by a guy who wanted to take credit for a supercharged economy that  ultimately proved to be a disaster for inflationary forces.

I must admit to being confused that you are happy with a 3% mortgage? Isnt the whole point of moving to an isolated town far from any real real job center to have no mortgage? To pay cash for cheap housing with windfall profits from CA. Please dont tell me you moved with Uhaul like my Republican neighbor who left 2 weeks ago for Idaho.

A few observations back at you. When land is available and cheap there is no driver for appreciation. You need high paying jobs in modern industries for that rather than jobs in slaughterhouses and building homes for those slaughterhouse workers.

Here in Coastal San Diego and Carlsbad they are building commercial and residential everywhere! But they are now building mostly higher density. This will provide more affordable homes for our younger resident workers while making single family real estate even more valuable over time. Once again this is simple economics. We have something the destinations of those fleeing here never will. We have tons of high paying jobs in growth industries. I meet plenty of folks who are leaving for the places you hold so dear and unfortunately we are not sending our best. In return those coming here are among the best and brightest. Its tough here and not everyone can make it. Its nice to know there is a place like St George for those that cant.

Demographics truly is destiny.

Sadly, I fear you have let your political biases get the better of your financial well being.

[sdrealtor]

Happy Fourth of July Everyone!

[sdrealtor]

Sales are up 26% in St George and prices are plummeting due to supply increasing.

Sales are down 25% in Carlsbad and prices are holding due to low supply.

Econ 101. Supply and demand at work. The forces behind both are in place and should continue

And I would argue the Black Swan event was not a return to normalcy for rates. The Black Swan event was ZIRP for decade that resulted in mortgages below 3%. That’s something we’ve never seen in our lifetime and likely wont again.

[sdrealtor]

More data on our homesteads

St George up 70% in 5 years.

Median home price down 19% since April 2022

https://www.redfin.com/city/16751/UT/St-George/housing-market

Carlsbad up 72% in 5 years

Median home price down 4% since April 2022

https://www.redfin.com/city/2891/CA/Carlsbad/housing-market

 

 

[sdrealtor]

I made no comment. None was necessary. The data speaks for itself.

[sdrealtor]

[sdrealtor]

New 22 (21) –

Pending 22 (16) –

Thats 0

Closed 20 (20) –

Total houses on the market 77 (120) with a median of 2.2M (2M). Two years ago 73 with median of $2.1M

A few months ago I predicted we would not hit 100 homes and that seems a solid call now. Peak inventory happens around the next couple weeks most years and we may already have hit it. The median is creeping up as higher priced listings pile up while low to mid end continues to sell at fairly good pace.

I was playing around with the size of the market today vs historically and its pretty crazy where we are now. I think it deserves its own post. I’ll try to get it up soon.

[Author]

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