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SD Realtor
ParticipantPost on SDCIA, you will have better luck.
ParticipantPost on SDCIA, you will have better luck.
ParticipantPost on SDCIA, you will have better luck.
ParticipantPost on SDCIA, you will have better luck.
ParticipantHi nyb –
I live in Scripps and specialize in the I15 corridor. I know La Costa Valley and the coastal areas very well but I would not say I am a specialist in these areas. Same goes with the what I call the eastern rim which includes Cielo, Crosby etc.. Both Jim Klinge and sdr have offices that are in the north county coastal area and would be considered neighborhood experts in those regions. Not sure if the EXACT submarket they focus in is RSF or not. They can comment.
As far as submitting a 15-20% lowball offer to any of the listings in the Crosby I would say that you would have a better chance of success in July then May. That may not preclude you from trying though. Each listing needs to be analyzed in terms of length on the market, level of distress or possible distress, etc… With that said, could it hurt to lob them an offer? No I don’t think it could at all. One thing for sure, you never know if you don’t try right? Also you let them know politely that you don’t mean to be insulting or anything like that, and if they don’t take it you check back in a few weeks.
As for the a sample of Crosby dues let’s look at the 16991 Going My Way home that was originally at 1.579 and is now 1.399. It has been on the market 285 days. They slid the price down a few times at the end of 07 and the beginning of 08 but have not budged since then. Are they due for another notch down? Absolutely. Will they notch it down 20%? My read on sellers like this is not a chance. Now I am only looking at one mapcode within the Crosby which is 1169 A2 and there have been 2 closed sales in all of 08 back in Feb. There are NO pendings and there are 7 active listings. Similarly this same listing was listed last year and expired. So to say these guys have been on the market a long time is an understatement. Are these sellers potentially in distress? Potentially they are.
As for your costs of living there? Right now they list the HOA at 475 a month and 6500 a year MR. If you got it for say 1.2M just to use a nice number you are looking at a minimum of 2k a month between property tax, hoa and mr. So that is what, 1.8%? I am to lazy to bring up the calc tool on my laptop…
Anyways like all of the high end stuff… I see these places all coming down… eventually… as they do come down they will get slurped up by people with money… so it will take awhile to get something for a million but no way does it hurt to try.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi nyb –
I live in Scripps and specialize in the I15 corridor. I know La Costa Valley and the coastal areas very well but I would not say I am a specialist in these areas. Same goes with the what I call the eastern rim which includes Cielo, Crosby etc.. Both Jim Klinge and sdr have offices that are in the north county coastal area and would be considered neighborhood experts in those regions. Not sure if the EXACT submarket they focus in is RSF or not. They can comment.
As far as submitting a 15-20% lowball offer to any of the listings in the Crosby I would say that you would have a better chance of success in July then May. That may not preclude you from trying though. Each listing needs to be analyzed in terms of length on the market, level of distress or possible distress, etc… With that said, could it hurt to lob them an offer? No I don’t think it could at all. One thing for sure, you never know if you don’t try right? Also you let them know politely that you don’t mean to be insulting or anything like that, and if they don’t take it you check back in a few weeks.
As for the a sample of Crosby dues let’s look at the 16991 Going My Way home that was originally at 1.579 and is now 1.399. It has been on the market 285 days. They slid the price down a few times at the end of 07 and the beginning of 08 but have not budged since then. Are they due for another notch down? Absolutely. Will they notch it down 20%? My read on sellers like this is not a chance. Now I am only looking at one mapcode within the Crosby which is 1169 A2 and there have been 2 closed sales in all of 08 back in Feb. There are NO pendings and there are 7 active listings. Similarly this same listing was listed last year and expired. So to say these guys have been on the market a long time is an understatement. Are these sellers potentially in distress? Potentially they are.
As for your costs of living there? Right now they list the HOA at 475 a month and 6500 a year MR. If you got it for say 1.2M just to use a nice number you are looking at a minimum of 2k a month between property tax, hoa and mr. So that is what, 1.8%? I am to lazy to bring up the calc tool on my laptop…
Anyways like all of the high end stuff… I see these places all coming down… eventually… as they do come down they will get slurped up by people with money… so it will take awhile to get something for a million but no way does it hurt to try.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi nyb –
I live in Scripps and specialize in the I15 corridor. I know La Costa Valley and the coastal areas very well but I would not say I am a specialist in these areas. Same goes with the what I call the eastern rim which includes Cielo, Crosby etc.. Both Jim Klinge and sdr have offices that are in the north county coastal area and would be considered neighborhood experts in those regions. Not sure if the EXACT submarket they focus in is RSF or not. They can comment.
As far as submitting a 15-20% lowball offer to any of the listings in the Crosby I would say that you would have a better chance of success in July then May. That may not preclude you from trying though. Each listing needs to be analyzed in terms of length on the market, level of distress or possible distress, etc… With that said, could it hurt to lob them an offer? No I don’t think it could at all. One thing for sure, you never know if you don’t try right? Also you let them know politely that you don’t mean to be insulting or anything like that, and if they don’t take it you check back in a few weeks.
As for the a sample of Crosby dues let’s look at the 16991 Going My Way home that was originally at 1.579 and is now 1.399. It has been on the market 285 days. They slid the price down a few times at the end of 07 and the beginning of 08 but have not budged since then. Are they due for another notch down? Absolutely. Will they notch it down 20%? My read on sellers like this is not a chance. Now I am only looking at one mapcode within the Crosby which is 1169 A2 and there have been 2 closed sales in all of 08 back in Feb. There are NO pendings and there are 7 active listings. Similarly this same listing was listed last year and expired. So to say these guys have been on the market a long time is an understatement. Are these sellers potentially in distress? Potentially they are.
As for your costs of living there? Right now they list the HOA at 475 a month and 6500 a year MR. If you got it for say 1.2M just to use a nice number you are looking at a minimum of 2k a month between property tax, hoa and mr. So that is what, 1.8%? I am to lazy to bring up the calc tool on my laptop…
Anyways like all of the high end stuff… I see these places all coming down… eventually… as they do come down they will get slurped up by people with money… so it will take awhile to get something for a million but no way does it hurt to try.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi nyb –
I live in Scripps and specialize in the I15 corridor. I know La Costa Valley and the coastal areas very well but I would not say I am a specialist in these areas. Same goes with the what I call the eastern rim which includes Cielo, Crosby etc.. Both Jim Klinge and sdr have offices that are in the north county coastal area and would be considered neighborhood experts in those regions. Not sure if the EXACT submarket they focus in is RSF or not. They can comment.
As far as submitting a 15-20% lowball offer to any of the listings in the Crosby I would say that you would have a better chance of success in July then May. That may not preclude you from trying though. Each listing needs to be analyzed in terms of length on the market, level of distress or possible distress, etc… With that said, could it hurt to lob them an offer? No I don’t think it could at all. One thing for sure, you never know if you don’t try right? Also you let them know politely that you don’t mean to be insulting or anything like that, and if they don’t take it you check back in a few weeks.
As for the a sample of Crosby dues let’s look at the 16991 Going My Way home that was originally at 1.579 and is now 1.399. It has been on the market 285 days. They slid the price down a few times at the end of 07 and the beginning of 08 but have not budged since then. Are they due for another notch down? Absolutely. Will they notch it down 20%? My read on sellers like this is not a chance. Now I am only looking at one mapcode within the Crosby which is 1169 A2 and there have been 2 closed sales in all of 08 back in Feb. There are NO pendings and there are 7 active listings. Similarly this same listing was listed last year and expired. So to say these guys have been on the market a long time is an understatement. Are these sellers potentially in distress? Potentially they are.
As for your costs of living there? Right now they list the HOA at 475 a month and 6500 a year MR. If you got it for say 1.2M just to use a nice number you are looking at a minimum of 2k a month between property tax, hoa and mr. So that is what, 1.8%? I am to lazy to bring up the calc tool on my laptop…
Anyways like all of the high end stuff… I see these places all coming down… eventually… as they do come down they will get slurped up by people with money… so it will take awhile to get something for a million but no way does it hurt to try.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi nyb –
I live in Scripps and specialize in the I15 corridor. I know La Costa Valley and the coastal areas very well but I would not say I am a specialist in these areas. Same goes with the what I call the eastern rim which includes Cielo, Crosby etc.. Both Jim Klinge and sdr have offices that are in the north county coastal area and would be considered neighborhood experts in those regions. Not sure if the EXACT submarket they focus in is RSF or not. They can comment.
As far as submitting a 15-20% lowball offer to any of the listings in the Crosby I would say that you would have a better chance of success in July then May. That may not preclude you from trying though. Each listing needs to be analyzed in terms of length on the market, level of distress or possible distress, etc… With that said, could it hurt to lob them an offer? No I don’t think it could at all. One thing for sure, you never know if you don’t try right? Also you let them know politely that you don’t mean to be insulting or anything like that, and if they don’t take it you check back in a few weeks.
As for the a sample of Crosby dues let’s look at the 16991 Going My Way home that was originally at 1.579 and is now 1.399. It has been on the market 285 days. They slid the price down a few times at the end of 07 and the beginning of 08 but have not budged since then. Are they due for another notch down? Absolutely. Will they notch it down 20%? My read on sellers like this is not a chance. Now I am only looking at one mapcode within the Crosby which is 1169 A2 and there have been 2 closed sales in all of 08 back in Feb. There are NO pendings and there are 7 active listings. Similarly this same listing was listed last year and expired. So to say these guys have been on the market a long time is an understatement. Are these sellers potentially in distress? Potentially they are.
As for your costs of living there? Right now they list the HOA at 475 a month and 6500 a year MR. If you got it for say 1.2M just to use a nice number you are looking at a minimum of 2k a month between property tax, hoa and mr. So that is what, 1.8%? I am to lazy to bring up the calc tool on my laptop…
Anyways like all of the high end stuff… I see these places all coming down… eventually… as they do come down they will get slurped up by people with money… so it will take awhile to get something for a million but no way does it hurt to try.
SD Realtor
Participant“I’m not a RE pro, and there are a few realtors that post here that are much more accurate.”
You should play one on tv FLU! heheheheh…
Your analysis is pretty darn accurate. Not much speculation and pretty factual. I could not agree with your statements more. I could write a few paragraphs but they will mimic what you said. The picture gets cloudier if we start to think about external factors such as employment or high interest rates. These factors would obviously push prices down faster. I think in general CV will continue to fall. Note I use the word continue because it has gone down. It just is slow… This area “could” be hit pretty hard by what the second wave in late 09 and 10. The thing is, that this second wave will have resets in that timeframe but they may not materialize into distress sales until a year after that.
It is hard to say right now. Alternately can we inflate/bailout our way out? Can or will the government force lenders to to writedowns yet keep homeowners who have gainful employment and strong salaries to stay in the homes using principal reductions? Don’t know. It is one thing to let the lender foreclose on a guy who makes 40k a year and has a 3k payment. Wonder about the guy who has a 4k payment that goes to a 6k payment and makes 120k a year? Just thinking out loud.
Anyways Bluemoon I am sorry I can’t help you. I have some clients who are pretty active in CV and our lowballs are getting snubbed right now. The longer you wait, the better off you will be… but you may have to wait awhile if you want to get a screaming deal.
Participant“I’m not a RE pro, and there are a few realtors that post here that are much more accurate.”
You should play one on tv FLU! heheheheh…
Your analysis is pretty darn accurate. Not much speculation and pretty factual. I could not agree with your statements more. I could write a few paragraphs but they will mimic what you said. The picture gets cloudier if we start to think about external factors such as employment or high interest rates. These factors would obviously push prices down faster. I think in general CV will continue to fall. Note I use the word continue because it has gone down. It just is slow… This area “could” be hit pretty hard by what the second wave in late 09 and 10. The thing is, that this second wave will have resets in that timeframe but they may not materialize into distress sales until a year after that.
It is hard to say right now. Alternately can we inflate/bailout our way out? Can or will the government force lenders to to writedowns yet keep homeowners who have gainful employment and strong salaries to stay in the homes using principal reductions? Don’t know. It is one thing to let the lender foreclose on a guy who makes 40k a year and has a 3k payment. Wonder about the guy who has a 4k payment that goes to a 6k payment and makes 120k a year? Just thinking out loud.
Anyways Bluemoon I am sorry I can’t help you. I have some clients who are pretty active in CV and our lowballs are getting snubbed right now. The longer you wait, the better off you will be… but you may have to wait awhile if you want to get a screaming deal.
Participant“I’m not a RE pro, and there are a few realtors that post here that are much more accurate.”
You should play one on tv FLU! heheheheh…
Your analysis is pretty darn accurate. Not much speculation and pretty factual. I could not agree with your statements more. I could write a few paragraphs but they will mimic what you said. The picture gets cloudier if we start to think about external factors such as employment or high interest rates. These factors would obviously push prices down faster. I think in general CV will continue to fall. Note I use the word continue because it has gone down. It just is slow… This area “could” be hit pretty hard by what the second wave in late 09 and 10. The thing is, that this second wave will have resets in that timeframe but they may not materialize into distress sales until a year after that.
It is hard to say right now. Alternately can we inflate/bailout our way out? Can or will the government force lenders to to writedowns yet keep homeowners who have gainful employment and strong salaries to stay in the homes using principal reductions? Don’t know. It is one thing to let the lender foreclose on a guy who makes 40k a year and has a 3k payment. Wonder about the guy who has a 4k payment that goes to a 6k payment and makes 120k a year? Just thinking out loud.
Anyways Bluemoon I am sorry I can’t help you. I have some clients who are pretty active in CV and our lowballs are getting snubbed right now. The longer you wait, the better off you will be… but you may have to wait awhile if you want to get a screaming deal.
Participant“I’m not a RE pro, and there are a few realtors that post here that are much more accurate.”
You should play one on tv FLU! heheheheh…
Your analysis is pretty darn accurate. Not much speculation and pretty factual. I could not agree with your statements more. I could write a few paragraphs but they will mimic what you said. The picture gets cloudier if we start to think about external factors such as employment or high interest rates. These factors would obviously push prices down faster. I think in general CV will continue to fall. Note I use the word continue because it has gone down. It just is slow… This area “could” be hit pretty hard by what the second wave in late 09 and 10. The thing is, that this second wave will have resets in that timeframe but they may not materialize into distress sales until a year after that.
It is hard to say right now. Alternately can we inflate/bailout our way out? Can or will the government force lenders to to writedowns yet keep homeowners who have gainful employment and strong salaries to stay in the homes using principal reductions? Don’t know. It is one thing to let the lender foreclose on a guy who makes 40k a year and has a 3k payment. Wonder about the guy who has a 4k payment that goes to a 6k payment and makes 120k a year? Just thinking out loud.
Anyways Bluemoon I am sorry I can’t help you. I have some clients who are pretty active in CV and our lowballs are getting snubbed right now. The longer you wait, the better off you will be… but you may have to wait awhile if you want to get a screaming deal.
Participant“I’m not a RE pro, and there are a few realtors that post here that are much more accurate.”
You should play one on tv FLU! heheheheh…
Your analysis is pretty darn accurate. Not much speculation and pretty factual. I could not agree with your statements more. I could write a few paragraphs but they will mimic what you said. The picture gets cloudier if we start to think about external factors such as employment or high interest rates. These factors would obviously push prices down faster. I think in general CV will continue to fall. Note I use the word continue because it has gone down. It just is slow… This area “could” be hit pretty hard by what the second wave in late 09 and 10. The thing is, that this second wave will have resets in that timeframe but they may not materialize into distress sales until a year after that.
It is hard to say right now. Alternately can we inflate/bailout our way out? Can or will the government force lenders to to writedowns yet keep homeowners who have gainful employment and strong salaries to stay in the homes using principal reductions? Don’t know. It is one thing to let the lender foreclose on a guy who makes 40k a year and has a 3k payment. Wonder about the guy who has a 4k payment that goes to a 6k payment and makes 120k a year? Just thinking out loud.
Anyways Bluemoon I am sorry I can’t help you. I have some clients who are pretty active in CV and our lowballs are getting snubbed right now. The longer you wait, the better off you will be… but you may have to wait awhile if you want to get a screaming deal.
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