[SD Realtor]

mrmanfitz –

I would strongly agree that holding off on your downtown purchase is the way to go. I think you could see exceptional deals downtown in the upcoming years. I think that location may be the single most saturated location in the county.

Also you may want to decouple the sale of your current condo.

Maybe you sell the condo now and then put the money in a CD or something and let it accrue interest. Or maybe go live downtown and rent out the north park condo. Run a quick spreadsheet to see if you can get a positive cash flow out of it.

Or if those alternatives don’t work then sit tight.

Remember any decision that leaves you stressed out is the wrong way to go.

[SD Realtor]

mydogsarelazy –

One day I hope to be one of those topsellers with a limo at my disposal… for now though it is a nissan murano and I am the limo driver and my two kids are the passengers…

Yet more stories from people about Realtors that make me shake my head…

I had just typed up 3 paragraphs about a listing appt this morning that kind of ran parallel to this story but I deleted it because I don’t want to be thought of as self promoting… If you guys wanna hear the story I will post it. It involves my appt and what a Prudential agent (the prospects best friend) told my prospect.

NLS hang in there….

So when a Realtor tells you that you should not reprice your home, question why, and ask for comps (SOLDS preferrably) that will help you out. Also definitely try to look at expireds, cancelleds, and solds. Again, NLS I know it is frustrating when homes around yours sell… Try to have patience, perhaps ask your Realtor to send you the expireds, cancelleds, solds in your zip code that are comparable to your home to see if your current price is correct. Also have the Realtor do a full analysis for you. Many of the ratios and stats that John mentioned in some of his posts are good. See how many actives to pendings there are, etc… I know this will not accelerate your sale but it will give you a better idea of the market and your listings standing within that local spectrum.

Hope this helps…

[SD Realtor]

PerryChase I would tell your auntie to continue to rent and take it year by year.

“I am wondering if she should just rent and never buy”

If you run the numbers right now, the bottom line is that she should rent. However when her lease comes up, take a new sample of prices around town, then rerun the numbers. At some point it “may” make sense to buy. However also take into account her age. I don’t want to sound morbid but if she may need assisted living in several years then yeah maybe buying is not the greatest idea. Consider all the factors with regards to her life, health, and time horizon.

For sure though now is DEFINTELY not the time for her to buy.

Jabr – You mentioned is 250k the correct, or fair, price for Lucera. I don’t really know. Pricing is determined by the market. We all here, or alot of us don’t think pricing is “fair” on all SD properties because we are using

a – our common sense and good judgement
b – a multiplier of 7 as a median price vs income multiple
c – analysis of inventory, market times, etc.
d – the fact that prices NEVER have been this high in the history of man!

I would say that at least one way to determine “fairness” is to do a simple cash flow analysis. Thus if I put 20% down and finance the rest, then rent it out, back out all expenses include financing interest, hoa, taxes etc… Am I earning a decent return on that 20% down because I have a positive cash flow.

I wonder if you do that, and use the average rent for a 2/2 in the area if 250k is what you arrive at… You may need to get even lower!

[SD Realtor]

R3venge –

I did not view my post as attack on Alan. Furthermore if you read John’s and Powaysellers post I thought they are well thought out and are more of a presentation of our thoughts, not an attack.

[SD Realtor]

bubble are you still tracking UC condos? Lucera in particular? That is where I have some clients who bought a 2/2 when it was converted and are now woefully underwater. The listings for 2/2’s there are now in the high 300’s and up. The 2/2’s sold 2 years ago at conversion in the 430’s.
Also did you track La Jolla Regents at all?

[SD Realtor]

I spoke to Will the other day at VOSD. Unfortunately he is leaving and going home to England for a spell. Hope he returns.

[SD Realtor]

Sad to see… however I cannot find sympathy. The house sat on the market for 160 days at 484k – 529k and then cancelled. Yes the buyers got it at 465k in a private sale. I would maintain they could have gotten less. I would also question how much analysis they did on solds of 3/2 1156 square foot homes in that mapcode.

[SD Realtor]

Alan

I also responded but you did not address any of my comments. I thought many of my points were valid and I was hoping you would address them. Again, as a Realtor and an engineer my main problem is the presentation of the data. I believe there is a systemic failure in that presentation which then leads to faulty analysis. I am not insinuating that there is anything behind it, yet it is very sad because I have to spend a substantial amount of time at listing appointments educating people. When they ask me why there are not any stats about cancelled, expireds and withdrawns I don’t have a good answer. When I perform my own statiscal analysis of there zip code and throw out the extreme high and low listings that is also useful. Using active to pending ratios also gives them a more realistic view. When you tell a seller hey for your home there is 1 pending and 16 actives and 5 solds but 4 cancelled, and 3 expireds in a given timeframe it really changes there outlook and is much more effective then a 1% MEDIAN sales price reduction from year over year sales.

Again this is not an attack on you. This is the way it goes at most all of my listing appointments.

[SD Realtor]

PS if this analysis is correct then this market will take a pretty sever beating to get back to a multiple of 7. At least that was what the other two peaks dropped back to wasn’t it?

Aye caramba….

[SD Realtor]

Hi John –

Very good points on market time. Indeed the cancelled, expired and withdrawns should be taken into consideration for a sold listing if they are all part of that same “selling period”. I take a similar approach when analyzing true numbers. I also like to use a ratio of active/pending status as an indicator. For instance if someone is selling a 3/2 1800 square foot home then I will find his comps on 3/2 from 1600-2000 sq ft, and perform that ratio for his mapcode and his zip code. I have similar ratios that use for solds to unsolds (cancelled, expired, withdrawns) to really get a more solid picture of things.

I do believe that the market time for a contingent property is still reported correctly though. Don’t you keep your listing in active status until the sales contingency is removed?

Anyways that is just being nitpicky on my part. Good post.

[SD Realtor]

I’ll try a bit to…I am way out of my league even trying to answer these questions but I will be in San Jose tomorrow so I am procrastinating at the moment…no warranties on my answers and they will most likely be corrected by those in the know…

Who ultimately holds all the debt? Chinese Bond holders? American Bond holders? Banks? Mortgage Companies? To put it another way what nations and institutions would be most stressed?

– The debt for mortgages are held by whoever currently is servicing that mortgage. Many mortgages are established by a lender or mortgage company and then sold. So when a mortgage is defaulted on, whoever is holding it is boned.

– American or Chinese Bond holders needs to be clarified. If you are referring to people who own 10 or 30 year treasuries, these are NOT mortgages or trust deeds. Treasury notes are bought and sold on the open market and are used to finance federal debt. They are independent of mortgages. (Someone correct me on this as I am at the limits of what tiny tidbits I know about these types of securities)

Now how the holders of these securities are affected by the housing market is TBD.

Now there are lots of other bonds… take muni bonds for instance. Lots of people have those, like my parents. Well remember when the OC went belly up a few years back? Well bond holders for OC municpal projects were S.O.L. I do not know if they were re-imbursed by the state of California or not.

I will defer to waiting hawk on the answer to your second question. From his answer is seems if you default on your primary mortgage then it sounds like the lender cannot go after you. I do not know if you need to go through and declare bankruptcy or not to make sure they stay off your back.

Also I don’t know if that applies to a short sale.

[SD Realtor]

CardiffBaseball don’t blow the gig man!!!

heheheheh…

Seriously though, that is another thing people can do whilst they wait for the market to churn. Go out, get a license, find a broker to buddy up with and do the deal themselves!

RealtyExectives charges a fixed fee, I think it is $380 bucks a month and they will let you hang your license with them.

[SD Realtor]

No they didn’t ask him about that. You and I know the answer to that question though.

They have record profits cuz they gouge us and we cannot do much about it. Until we all are driving hybrids and all figure out how to wean ourselves off of thier sweet honey, they WILL gouge us because the CAN gouge us.

The alternative will be regulation right? Note I am not saying this is right or wrong and as a small business owner I am getting HAMMERED by fuel costs.

The smart people figure out that if they cannot beat em, join em. How can I invest in thier success and take advantage of it.

[SD Realtor]

waiting hawk no offense taken!

I completely agree with your points. The best thing people can do while we are all waiting is to educate yourself and learn about alternatives.

I am going to post something on this.

[SD Realtor]

Monster that is wild! Any chance I could get that address or MLS number from ya?

[Author]

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