Forum Replies Created
-
AuthorPosts
-
SD Realtor
Participantjg –
If you go to the dataquick.com website they have information on ordering custom reports. Alternately every month dataquick posts the sales activity by zip code for the entire county. HOWEVER, the San Diego Union actually prints it all out every single month. If you go to a local library you can most likely get the tables for each month for however many years back you want to go. The only problem is that it will be a hardcopy not a soft copy.
ParticipantHopefully someone can confirm this…
I heard that the earnings reports from lenders ACTUALLY INCLUDE growth from neg-am mortgages… Is this true? For example, lets say you have one of those 1% specials. You happen to be a buyer who is making the minimum 1% payment on the loan, making a huge pile of debt on the backend. So when that loan resets (lets say it was a 5/1) your new balance will be a whopper. Lets just say you piled up an extra 50k on top of your original balance.
So what I have heard is that the lenders actually count this negative growth in thier earnings! Of course this totally inflates the earnings growth of the lenders. It also sets them up for a monster fall when these loans belly up.
My question is, does anyone know if this is true? That lenders report earnings in such a manner?
ParticipantGuys I wrote about this last month!!!
The pot is Sam Suleiman LA JOLLA REALTOR!!!! This guy was/is a total scam artist. He went and forged documentation and purchased properties in his clients names. He would then not pay the mortgages and collect rent from the tenants that occupied the properties.
When I posted this some people thought this was some sort of joke by the news. It was reported by Fox 6 last month. The FOX 6 reporter followed up on this for the past two months. KUDOS to the reporter for following up on it.
This guys Suleiman has threatened MANY people.
Oh yeah while this guy was beating on the reporter his WIFE was sitting there talking into the camera telling everyone how this reporter was getting what he deserved.
NICE
ParticipantI think that 3-4 years ago was the correct time to invest in trust deeds. BradPitt you may want to read up about tax liens. There are potentially nice returns with much less risk.
If the housing market does what we are all thinking it will do, and if the NOD rate continues to grow at the rate it is growing, it would seem to me that trust deed investing is not a good idea at this time.
Finally, I do not mean to be flippant but your initial posting referred to this investment guy having learned his lessons in the 98 downturn? Well 1998 was not a downturn… In many opinions of this site, 1998 will look like a great year compared to the upcoming years ahead for Realtors, lenders, and second trust deed holders.
Please show me this guys record for the true downcycle back in the early 90’s.
Chris J said it correctly, the easy money has already been made.
ParticipantVery nice post. jg I think that anytime you can present raw data to a speculative subject then I feel you are adding levity and value. While I do agree with the premise that trying to find the exact bottom is tough, I think that your basics are very strong. Waiting for the total number of sales to level off makes sense to all of us. The unknown to all of us (or at least myself) is the lag time for pricing. As far as I know your post is the first one I have seen that attempts to use the hard data.
My non scientific method for purchasing the much needed larger home that my family is pressing me to buy will be as follows:
– wait for total sales to level off and stop decreasing
– wait for inventory to level off and stop increasing
– pray I can hold my family off until then
While I know I may be taking some pricing risk I think the downside will be seriously minimized if the first two factors are in place.
ParticipantThat is the exact reason why the statistics reported by the media are simply not useful. That is why I have to spend a half hour at listing appointments with condo owners explaining the every single stat they have heard over the past 5 years are essentially meaningless.
Try telling the UTC first time homeowner that bought a condo about a national number or an intersection of union of sets. Try telling the guy that bought a 1 bedroom off of Hyde Park for an investment about it, or the couple who bought a condo in Eastlake. In all of these neighborhoods people are looking at 20% in the BEST case.
The ONLY meaningful statistic for homeowners is what references the type of home the live in, in the very local area that they live in. ANYTHING else will mislead them.
The disservice that has been done over the past several years will indeed come back around in the form of people losing the homes. Plain and simple. I am not justifying the bad decisions they made, please know that. However if one good thing could come out of all this it would be for NAR, CAR, AND SDAR to tell people to turn a deaf ear to national stats and focus on local stats.
There are more then enough resources to find out local stats by housing type and zip code.
ParticipantYeppers the coaster stop is actually going to be right next to the Lucera complex.
ParticipantI agree vrudny…
In fact, if we limited the conversations to condos only, I would flip it around and say show me condo complexes that have not dropped by at least 10%. For every one you show me I bet I can show you 3 that have.
ParticipantI would agree with the VC… Actually Jim I always thought VC was Venture Capitalist as well until it was cleared up a few years ago.
I think that if you have run a spreadsheet and figured out it can be a positive cash flow rental, and you like the house so much that you could live in it, I like it as a hedge bet as well. You financed it correctly, and you will be able to use it as a nice tax shelter with your depreciation expense.
ParticipantI liked him alot. While there were some complaints from certain groups about how he came into to close of a proximity with animals, and there were also complaints about how he had is infant in one arm while feeding a croc with another, Steve was instrumental in preventing alot of croc hunting trips. He used his celebrity status in a positive manner to protect habitat although that is not widely known, especially in this country. I think it was easy to confuse his bravado with disrespect.
However it is plain to see that it is only a matter of time before the odds catch up to you when you play with fire.
ParticipantTo bad he is not looking at the real data. For the umpteenth time, I will say that in many neighborhoods here in SD pricing has already dropped well below the 5-10% level.
ParticipantI agree SOCALRELOC… I would seriously advise you to rent for a year or so, then get a great deal in 2008.
ParticipantIf you can confirm you have termites then yes you should go to the landlord and ask him to remedy the problem. I would advise you to call a professional and have them come in and prepare a report for you. Once prepared present it to your landlord if you feel this is something that you do not want to live with. Be prepared though to have to accept the consequences, like if the home needs to be tented etc… The obligations of the landlord should be spelled out in the lease. IMO termites are not the same as say roaches or mice however if it bothers you alot you should first review your lease, then approach your landlord. Also if it is a degree of infestation that you cannot tolerate then even if it is not spelled out in the lease, you should be able to get it remedied.
ParticipantI too would like to see the numbers make themselves evident with the gravity that we are all talking about but I don’t think we will see them yet JES. I think the way that median prices are reported will still “hide” the true facts. First off the media simply picks the data they want to see so you end up with only the countywide numbers. Second the concessions are never accounted for when you enter the sales price. If you wanna get the numbers by zip codes you can get them from the dataquick website. I think the numbers come out on the the 12th of the month.
-
AuthorPosts
