August 22, 2006 at 8:19 PM #7272BugsParticipant
I’ve been poking around in the sales data in Bressi Ranch (Carlsbad 92009) and have found some pretty good sized reductions over there. Depending on which of the communities we’re talking about, they mostly peaked in late 2005 or so. The most recent sales posted in the last couple months are anywhere from 9 -13% lower than they were just 8 months ago.
It’s hard to tell exactly how much discounting is actually going on because with Lennar’s more recent “one price” structure they’re including a lot of options and upgrades that used to cost substantially extra – not all buyers would buy them before.
The one Barratt project (Magnolia Estates) has finally had a couple closed sales – including one of their models. Both were renegotiated/discounted by the developer AFTER their contracts had been negotiated but just prior to closing. When have you ever heard of that happening?
So much for Carlsbad being that “special place” that would hold up better than everywhere else.August 22, 2006 at 11:31 PM #32780anParticipant
No place is immune to this down turn. You showed Bressi Ranch is falling 9-13%. Just look how much Airoso is falling in Carmel Valley. My bet is somewhere between 15-20%. At this rate, next year will be a disaster.August 23, 2006 at 1:12 PM #32822jabrwokiParticipant
Any more specifics about exact prices ? I have been following Bressi since its inception and have noticed their price lists changed dramatically over many visits I have had. I was particularly looking at Primrose Point and Wisteria Place and noticed that some Plan 1 models went for almost 650k when their normal advertised prices ranged from 750-800k. Right now they claim all their Primrose Pt residences (except models) are already in escrow. Would be interested in knowing what they closed at.
thanksAugust 23, 2006 at 10:59 PM #32954powaysellerParticipant
Bugs and all realtors, I am specifically interested in coastal properties, even up to 5 miles inland, so semi-coastal. How are they holding up now, and how did they do in the last downturn? I see lots of NODs and foreclosures, but have not followed the auctions and selling prices.August 24, 2006 at 1:07 AM #32964CardiffBaseballParticipant
I nearly chose Carlsbad over Cardiff but the place I was to rent at the last minute wanted 2X monthly rent up front because my FICO was below 650 at the time.
So I am interested in Bressi, and also a co-worker bought there in mid-2005, so any news on Bressi I try to take note of. However I have never gone and priced units, mostly because I really don’t want to leave where I am at this point. It just seems like a good development to look for trends in this general area.September 1, 2006 at 3:57 AM #34165BubblesitterParticipant
Any buyer into Bressi ranch should be fully aware of the considerable issues with aircraft noise pollution. Click on Bressi ranch link.September 1, 2006 at 6:53 AM #34171ocrenterParticipant
in every sales office in the model homes there’s a plaque on the wall notifying potential buyers that Bressie is in an aircraft noise zone. last time I went, they got a “house of the week” advert placed right in front of the plaque. very interesting.September 1, 2006 at 8:37 AM #34184
I would also encourage potential Bressi buyers to consider the quality of homes, architecture, and general community aesthetics. Homes are jammed together with many garages opening up to alleys behing the home, streets are narrow, the architecture of neighboring homes often does not seem to flow IMO. From Palomar Airport Road you can see Spanish, colonial, ranch, and other style homes side by side in a manner that you will only see in SoCal. Also consider the high mello roos and HOA, the number of homeowners who paid high $$ and are teetering on financial ruin, the high number of resales and new homes for sale and the airport noise.
Compare all of this with nearby areas and you will never look back. Rancho Carillo next door is much nicer, and Rancho Dorado, a San Marcos community next door, is just as nice as Rancho Carillo with better prices. In Aviara in South Carlsbad you can get a 2800 sqft. home for 850-950, with no mello roos and HOA. A little higher than Bressi, but if you plan to stay for the long haul your mello roos and HOA savings will make this a cheaper purchase!September 1, 2006 at 8:49 AM #34185daveljParticipant
Yeah, a lot of people don’t fully realize the impact of mello roos and HOAs. I generally use a multiple of 25 to come up with a present value of the difference (that’s a 4% discount rate, or 7% less 3% fee inflation). So, if you have to pay $500/month more (or $6K/year) in HOA/mello roos relative to another property, that’s a present value of $150K. It adds up.September 1, 2006 at 8:50 AM #34186farbetParticipant
Thanks for the info.Is rancho dorado a better priced area?I found they were higher priced. How about San Elijio hills? I spoke to a realtor showing an open house(highly overpriced) in rancho dorado. The conversation drifted to San Elijio.
She claimed it used to be a landfill with toxic substances. Also there is a slew of low income houses to be built.
This along with the high Mello roos she woldn’t buy in SEJ.
Does any one have info on these areas.
ThanksSeptember 1, 2006 at 9:34 AM #34196
I haven’t looked in Bressi for a while, but with regards to Rancho Dorado I just pulled up some listings below. Consider that prices will likely crash further, but at 670k for an almost 2700 sqft., 4br home with a decent yard in that location I thought it looked like a deal. And there are alot of homes for sale in there, like everywhere. This one is a motivated seller too, so maybe you could get it for less.
(Sorry, I need to go back and learn how to create links!)September 1, 2006 at 9:43 AM #34201
I just pulled up the link below (web site that provides maps of areas with plotted homes for sale) and I looked at San Elijo. There are a number of 2000-2400 sqft. single family homes listed in the high 500s! Some may have power lines nearby.September 1, 2006 at 10:13 AM #34206BugsParticipant
I wouldn’t say Bressi is a bad place or that it’s any more overvalued that anywhere else in Carlsbad. The aircraft noise they have going there isn’t nearly as bad as over in Scripps or UTC with the Marines at Miramar. It’s not like you’d be prompted to keep your windows closed all the time. They aren’t directly under the take-off or landing pattern at Palomar so there’s little extra risk of a plane crash.
One aspect that makes Bressi a little more desirable than San Elijo is the better proximity to freeway access and services. That difference can save a person 20 minutes a day in commuting time (compared to San Elijo) if they travel those roads during rush hours. That’s worth some money to many folks. Another aspect is that it’s a little more exposed to the coastal breezes.
The main reason I like to watch Bressi is because they have lots of units with several different size ranges in one place and they have a reasonably desirable location compared to a lot of the other new subdivisions going up. Any problems they have there are not going to be attributed to its location in a landfill or in association with inland areas like Escondido. It’s all going to be about the general market conditions.September 1, 2006 at 10:59 AM #34213PerryChaseParticipant
Bugs, Bressi Ranch is on a landfill?September 1, 2006 at 12:59 PM #34219balasrParticipant
Note that El Dorado and Rancho Carrillo come uunder San Marcos school district, which is shitty to say the least. The elementary school in Carrillo is decent, but in no way can be called good. So don’t buy there if you want to send your kid to a public school.
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