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SD Realtor
Participantsdr – Technically I still am but tomorrow we fly back… Plus as you know you never are fully on vacation… Got the cell phone and laptop with me and have been supporting some current escrows and other stuff.
SD Realtor
March 30, 2007 at 7:51 PM in reply to: Almost back from vacation and wondering about something #48799ParticipantYep AN I totally agree. I was always under the impression that a short sale is less damaging then a foreclosure but that was only an assumption.
SD Realtor
ParticipantFunny cuz Sandicor updated the MLS mapping function they used. I am not to happy with it… sdrealtor and other members of Sandicor do you guys like it?
SD Realtor
Participant23109VC –
I think that you may be getting to caught up with how much should my lowball offer be, verses, what can I afford and still be able to sleep at night. Ya know what I mean? It concerns me that you would be financing 100% of this purchase with a loan vehicle that may be somewhat risky, at least down the road.
My personal answer to your question is, the correct price to offer is what is suitable for your personal budget. Even if you find a mortgage that equals the rent you pay, don’t forget that you could be buying a depreciating asset, thus if you get stuck in a job layoff or something, you are in a much tighter bind then if you are renting. I am not trying to talk you out of the purchase, I am just saying don’t be concerned with offending this owner or something like that.
If she bought it for 430k I am skeptical that she would sell if for 300k. So what the heck, offer her 250k! Just make sure that whatever you offer, it is a mortgage that you can afford and that you are okay with. Right now the denial factor is still running high among homeowners. Sign a one year lease with her and then hit her again next year. It will be interesting to see what happens then.
SD Realtor
ParticipantI am wondering if I will ever disagree with AN and Perry. Once again I agree with the two of you guys. One thing I am not so sure about though is if the political party has as much a bearing on interest rates as we think. I believe that external forces drive the 10 year and 30 year markets alot more then whoever is in the white house. Yes the fed drives the overnight rate but still…
I think we all universally agree that in rates must rise substantially in order to start dealing with our debt in the correct manner.
Sorry for straying from the subject line. IMO it is always a no brainer to buy a lower price home at a higher rate then a higher price home at a lower rate. One can run the calculations to see the crossover points on the payment. Of course as already mentioned, at some point in time, high rates will cycle down to lower rates and then you are in fat city as long as your home hasn’t depreciated to the point where you cannot refi.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi Cawireman –
Been on the road but kids are asleep and time to get my piggington fix in….
I to be vague but it depends on the area. Condos pretty much everywhere (IMO) are at 2004 levels and below. I don’t have any condo listings right now, nor do I have any buyers looking at condos but I have been on a few listing appts for condo owners. They all were very disappointed at my pricing recommendations and did not use me. I noted that in the comp searches I did for them that the pricings were actually BELOW 04 pricing. The last appt was for a condo downtown.
Even for detached homes in less desirable areas I am seeing at/near/below 04 prices. Escondido, Lemon Grove… even in some middle income areas like San Carlos I am seeing 04 pricing more or less. Absolutely 04 or less in Eastlake…
In some of the other areas like Scripps, and north county coastal SOME of the homes have held up better and are a little above 04 pricing. However those places didn’t peak in 04, they peaked a bit later…
Sorry if that is vague…
I think that the posters here more or less have it right. However I think that there are localized submarkets that tend to hold up better then others. Just like some submarkets fall faster then others. I am not so sure that the Piggingtonians believe or digest that fact. Most people that post on the board here will say that even those stronger submarkets will fall eventually. This may or may not be true, I cannot say.
SD Realtor
ParticipantHi Davelj –
I am a little guy and I fly under the radar of the big brokerages. I do know (or shall I say am acquainted) with alot of realtors from doing transactions with them but none that I know of have bailed. However, there has to have been a big shaekout because the raw numbers were just to large for there not to have been. I think alot of people that saw easy money have gotten burned and found out that it is not like that, (at least anymore)…
I believe Jim Klinge did report he has seen a drop off in the number of closings in the past 2 months. I would expect to see that in cases of shaky or 100% financing. So again, that (at least to me) will happen in zips that are lower income. Although I bet it is occurring to some extent in other zips as well where the buyers are financing to the hilt.
SD Bear – No harm done. I thought you were referring to me. However I didn’t really read bullishness in sdrealtors postings either. I think both he and I are seeing the same thing (brisk activity) in certain types of homes in certain areas. I cannot explain it… wierd scenes inside a gold mine…
SD Realtor
ParticipantCredit to Outtamojo for posting this news event a few days ago.
SD Realtor
ParticipantSD Bear –
I do not mean for my posts to be bullish. I am only reporting facts that I see. Please do not interpret them in any other manner.
In many areas prices are actually BELOW 2004 prices. Pretty much condos anywhere fall into that category. Even many many detached homes fall into that category. In my posts I have been consistent in trying to qualify my statements. I will try again…
Scripps Ranch – Very brisk. The active/pending ratio is low and has been that way since January. This is for detached homes.
Parts of 92129 and 92128 – Homes in nicer condition that are in the nicer areas of these areas have gone into escrow very quickly. Why has that happened? I do not know. However I have a few buyers who I have been working with in this area. One in particular who has submitted several offers (lowballs) in the past 3 months and none of them have been taken. Yesterday we submitted an offer on a home in Crestmont (92129) that was a BEATER and had been on the market for 2 days. It already had 3 offers on it.
Same is true for some spots in Carlsbad. I took a very nice couple to an REO property in La Costa (92009) a few days ago and it had only been on the market less then 2 weeks. It is in escrow already as well.
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I can 100% say in all my postings I am consistent and say the market is in a secular downtrend. I also always say that let’s see how the market looks later into the summer. I do not say that I am bullish on the market nor do I ever say this is a great time to buy. Please point to a post of mine where I have said that.What I have been saying consistently all spring is that certain spots, with certain types of housing, have been quite active. I haven’t commented on the sales price, whether it is higher or lower then 2004 in these active areas.
Please point out to me where I have said that so I can post a retraction on that thread.
Participantibjames I bought a condo in Crown Point in 1991. I lived in it a long long time and when I moved out I converted it to a rental. I doubt that I will ever sell it but it is not one of those artsy upgraded types of places. I do agree with people that PB condos have a long way to go down. Don’t sweat it because it will (or is “should” happen) but don’t think it will happen in a short time.
SD Realtor
ParticipantOnce again….Last I saw Greenspan didn’t sign the loan docs that every buyer signed. Yes I suppose that if Greenspan wasn’t at the helm none of the lenders would have come up with all of these derivatives.
Yep that is the case.
Really guys come on. Do you honestly, honestly deep down think that this bubble would not have happened? Is that the case? If so then I don’t agree.
I am not a Greenspan apologist at all. I strongly disagreed with his policies all along. I do not recall all of the fed governers disagreeing with him at all the meetings but I guess I missed that.
Again it seems that people with half an ounce of grey matter do not buy something they cannot afford. Those that do, deserve to loose whatever they bought. No bailout, no excuses. Regardless of the bonehead policies that the Fed put forth in the past, you can be smart enough to live your life and not have to blame others for your own poor choices.
SD Realtor
ParticipantCow_tipping –
My client who moved to NC said the people were very friendly to him and he is a socal.
SD Realtor
ParticipantI am not saying Greenspan is not part of the problem. However our entire culture is based on consumption rather then savings. This applies to cars, credit card debt, housing… pick a topic. Is Greenspan to blame for all the saps that run up Visa bills? I didn’t know that the Fed was responsible for purchasing all those boneheaded mortgages to begin with from the lender. Last I checked Wall Street did that. Nor did I know that the Fed sat and signed loan docs with all those buyers who shouldn’t have purchased to begin with. Yes I guess our country is that stupid, that we need to create an economic policy that will protect simpletons from themselves. This is sad. So everyone better blame one guy and his policy for this. Did the Fed persuade the hedge funds and pensions to purchase all those bad loans? Does the Fed control Fannie and Fred? Again, please do not mistake this post for endorsing Greenspan because I certainly do not. Yet to single him out is just another example of scapegoat politics. Yes the Fed controls the overnight rate but last I looked long term mortgages were tied to the 10 and 30 year treasuries. So words like this from our congress just go to show how boneheaded they are. If they didn’t agree with his policies then they should have challenged him every time he spoke before them. Again, I don’t like the Fed at all, but poorgradstudent called it, this was a MAJOR team effort with the US consumer leading the way.
SD Realtor
ParticipantJuice –
I wish you the very best of luck also. Personally I think you are making a good decision. I have had clients who I still keep in touch with in Washington, (they love it there) but it has run up pretty fast. In Utah, St Georges may be a little to rural for you… In Virginia, they are military and really like it there. Finally in North Carolina, where that other family really likes it as well…. Personally I would pick North Carolina but there is no reason behind it.
Anyways it is nice to see you take action and give it a shot. Keep us informed and best of luck.
SD Realtor
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