[SD Realtor]

I was not trying to be flippant in my post… though that is most likely how it came out. I just think that statements are made with so much emotion… Once more I will point out posts made by people who do want to buy… Once more there are pretty decent active/pending ratios in several zip codes. I completely agree with sdr, I don’t feel there is some point frozen in time where all of the sudden the market stops or plummets altogether. I am not saying the market will not drop as I totally agree it will do that… However these posts where people say, I can just feel it… Oh man… Then that gets everyone all frothed up… to me that makes the board here seem a bit less…well you can choose your own adjective.

Of course there are rampant defaults, and lots of signs that indicate the market should do this or that… yet that is not how it works, nor has it ever worked that way.

Why is it so hard to accept that the market will move at given pace?

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

So I take it based on this analysis we will see sales/prices drop drastically in all the zip codes here in SD? Is that for this month? next month?

Okay I will track the data and see what happens.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

So I take it based on this analysis we will see sales/prices drop drastically in all the zip codes here in SD? Is that for this month? next month?

Okay I will track the data and see what happens.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Rustico perhaps. I guess it depends on age/health/mindset. Also if they do get a good deal on the condo and the market has bottomed out then appreciation of the home for the children is something to consider.

Your point as always is well made.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Rustico perhaps. I guess it depends on age/health/mindset. Also if they do get a good deal on the condo and the market has bottomed out then appreciation of the home for the children is something to consider.

Your point as always is well made.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi Kelly –

I would imagine CAR derives that statistic from the names on the RPA. If the names are different then they call that friends or co-workers. That may or may not be true. I have had couples that are not married share a home. So again, I would view that stat with skepticism. Also I know of some speculation purchases that were made with multiple names on the RPA. The one concrete example are two guys who bought a home in Normal Heights for the mid 400s and asked me to list the home. After renovating it thoroughly then needed 530k to break even. The sad thing was when they bought the place the market was in the tank but the Realtor they used assurred them they would make a killing. Well they called her after they renovated and she said that the market took a sudden unforseen turn but by the summer it would be back full steam. Anyways they got killed on the home. Rather then take the cash loss one guy sold his primary home, lost all his equity, and bought out the other guy. Now instead of living in his nice 4/3 home in Alpine he gets to live in a 2/1 in Normal Heights.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Hi Kelly –

I would imagine CAR derives that statistic from the names on the RPA. If the names are different then they call that friends or co-workers. That may or may not be true. I have had couples that are not married share a home. So again, I would view that stat with skepticism. Also I know of some speculation purchases that were made with multiple names on the RPA. The one concrete example are two guys who bought a home in Normal Heights for the mid 400s and asked me to list the home. After renovating it thoroughly then needed 530k to break even. The sad thing was when they bought the place the market was in the tank but the Realtor they used assurred them they would make a killing. Well they called her after they renovated and she said that the market took a sudden unforseen turn but by the summer it would be back full steam. Anyways they got killed on the home. Rather then take the cash loss one guy sold his primary home, lost all his equity, and bought out the other guy. Now instead of living in his nice 4/3 home in Alpine he gets to live in a 2/1 in Normal Heights.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Cyphire – It sounds to me like you have done well with your money. I have been working in a similar manner with the whopping majority of my money in money/markets, and CDs and a small percentage in some stocks. I have lots of wishes while reading about all the people making money on shorts and such. One thing that always makes me feel better is when old Ray Lucia says that one of the objectives of making money is not losing the money you have. Anyways the bond rally could be a harbinger of thoughts that yes a recession will be coming thus locking in rates now is not a bad idea. I don’t really know as I am nowhere near being an expert. If your broker has done well for you in the past I doubt there is a reason to question his judgement now.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Cyphire – It sounds to me like you have done well with your money. I have been working in a similar manner with the whopping majority of my money in money/markets, and CDs and a small percentage in some stocks. I have lots of wishes while reading about all the people making money on shorts and such. One thing that always makes me feel better is when old Ray Lucia says that one of the objectives of making money is not losing the money you have. Anyways the bond rally could be a harbinger of thoughts that yes a recession will be coming thus locking in rates now is not a bad idea. I don’t really know as I am nowhere near being an expert. If your broker has done well for you in the past I doubt there is a reason to question his judgement now.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Nodunk – Everyone has different impressions of downtown. There is also a fair amount of variability to select from in that area, places like Little Italy, East Village, etc… The one facet that holds true is that downtown is definitely getting hit as hard as any of the locales in San Diego. Don’t get scared because one guy shows a picture of a bum sleeping on the street. Yes there are bums but there are bums in nice coastal areas as well as downtown areas. With that said, I feel that downtown condos have a ways to go. That 800k condo you are thinking about will most likely be in the 700’s next summer and will be less then that in 2 years. The trends do not lie and there really is no reason to doubt that they will not continue. My recommendation would be to rent a place downtown to get the feel for it next year, see if you do REALLY like it down there or not. Then in 2009 or 2010 snap up a great deal.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Nodunk – Everyone has different impressions of downtown. There is also a fair amount of variability to select from in that area, places like Little Italy, East Village, etc… The one facet that holds true is that downtown is definitely getting hit as hard as any of the locales in San Diego. Don’t get scared because one guy shows a picture of a bum sleeping on the street. Yes there are bums but there are bums in nice coastal areas as well as downtown areas. With that said, I feel that downtown condos have a ways to go. That 800k condo you are thinking about will most likely be in the 700’s next summer and will be less then that in 2 years. The trends do not lie and there really is no reason to doubt that they will not continue. My recommendation would be to rent a place downtown to get the feel for it next year, see if you do REALLY like it down there or not. Then in 2009 or 2010 snap up a great deal.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Yes that is pretty much true.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Yes that is pretty much true.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Alex there are submarkets that indeed have depreciated substantially already. Many of the suburban and low end areas are well off 2004 prices. It has not happened at the pace that many desire but in real estate time the drop has been fairly dramatic. The problem is that the desireable areas have not dropped as fast as many would like for a variety of reasons that we have discussed over and over again. The bottom line is that the demand is still there. We regularly see posts from the potential buyers (who have the courage) to post here. As long as there is gainful employment I think they will be out there. If the high paying jobs go, those buyers will dry up.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Alex there are submarkets that indeed have depreciated substantially already. Many of the suburban and low end areas are well off 2004 prices. It has not happened at the pace that many desire but in real estate time the drop has been fairly dramatic. The problem is that the desireable areas have not dropped as fast as many would like for a variety of reasons that we have discussed over and over again. The bottom line is that the demand is still there. We regularly see posts from the potential buyers (who have the courage) to post here. As long as there is gainful employment I think they will be out there. If the high paying jobs go, those buyers will dry up.

SD Realtor

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