Downtown Condo Stats

[Borat]

Hahahahaha — Santa Claus! He does look like St. Nick! But when even Santa can’t afford a condo to relax in during the off-season, you know prices are too high…

[Borat]

Hahahahaha — Santa Claus! He does look like St. Nick! But when even Santa can’t afford a condo to relax in during the off-season, you know prices are too high…

[Anonymous]

Condos are definitely a niche market. In a down market, the only real demand for condos are from 20 somethings and retirees who are downsizing. Look at condo prices in San Diego in 1996, they couldn’t give them away, even in the beach areas and they were dirt cheap.

Bottom line, in a down market you don’t want to own a condo. And especially not in downtown where there is a condo glut to a magnitude never before seen in San Diego. Check back in 3-5 years and let’s see how many people really want to live downtown.

Sorry, but in the long run I don’t see a very big market downtown at any price. Like everything else, sheeple got caught up in the “trendy” marketing of downtown but most of the market was artificially propped up via speculators.

[Anonymous]

Condos are definitely a niche market. In a down market, the only real demand for condos are from 20 somethings and retirees who are downsizing. Look at condo prices in San Diego in 1996, they couldn’t give them away, even in the beach areas and they were dirt cheap.

Bottom line, in a down market you don’t want to own a condo. And especially not in downtown where there is a condo glut to a magnitude never before seen in San Diego. Check back in 3-5 years and let’s see how many people really want to live downtown.

Sorry, but in the long run I don’t see a very big market downtown at any price. Like everything else, sheeple got caught up in the “trendy” marketing of downtown but most of the market was artificially propped up via speculators.

[KIBU]

I am wondering about a day when downtown is going to go for zero dollar per square feet. Think it’s imposible? All it takes is just a big earth quake……

I guess I am growing old now, no longer want to live downtown.

[KIBU]

I am wondering about a day when downtown is going to go for zero dollar per square feet. Think it’s imposible? All it takes is just a big earth quake……

I guess I am growing old now, no longer want to live downtown.

[PerryChase]

KIBU, what is your experience Downtown? I want to hear the downsides of Downtown from people who actually live there. Not interested in hearing why Downtown is great — I know already.

A friend who lives there says he has to sleep with earplug in his million dollar condo because of the train. He’s absolutely sick of it.

[PerryChase]

KIBU, what is your experience Downtown? I want to hear the downsides of Downtown from people who actually live there. Not interested in hearing why Downtown is great — I know already.

A friend who lives there says he has to sleep with earplug in his million dollar condo because of the train. He’s absolutely sick of it.

[capeman]

I can appreciate what you guys are saying that "This time may be a little different" and "San Diego is a desirable place to live." That all can be true but the numbers don't lie. The argument here and the argument in all housing (minus the help belligerently large credit availability) is affordability. The numbers… affordable payment of 1000sqft condo is say ~$2500 a month. At a currently conservative rate of $500 per sqft that condo will cost you 500k. Considering good credit and a whoppingly unlikely down payment of 100k your 400k loan 30yr at 7% will cost you $2661 per month not including HOA , Uncle Sam's yearly cut, insurance, etc. Seeing that I'm not expecting average Joe to have 100k for a down payment this whole scenario is highly unlikely in the first place.

 

Secondly with the credit market going down the toilet at a beyond historical rate, interest rates north of 10% are not at all unexpected in the next couple of years. Let's take a nice doubling (14%) as a round number that is not out of the question. Shooting for the same number as a payment in this environment gets you a 200k loan considering the 100k cash is still in your account for a down payment after dealing with high interest credit card and auto loan payments. That right there is a 40% decline in price due to affordability and ~$300 per sq ft. $2600 plus taxes, HOAs and associated costs is quite steep for 1000sq ft. With my pretty respectable family income and having an actual family to put in there that is an undesirable cost/benefit living scenario anyways and is still likely to be well above the rental costs on the same small condo in that environment. All one has to do is take a look at the ABX to see that higher real rates are coming and they will come with a vengence. That will likely knock Chuckie First-Time Home buyer (and likely family starter) away from paying anywhere near current pricing on a small place like that.

 

 

[capeman]

I can appreciate what you guys are saying that "This time may be a little different" and "San Diego is a desirable place to live." That all can be true but the numbers don't lie. The argument here and the argument in all housing (minus the help belligerently large credit availability) is affordability. The numbers… affordable payment of 1000sqft condo is say ~$2500 a month. At a currently conservative rate of $500 per sqft that condo will cost you 500k. Considering good credit and a whoppingly unlikely down payment of 100k your 400k loan 30yr at 7% will cost you $2661 per month not including HOA , Uncle Sam's yearly cut, insurance, etc. Seeing that I'm not expecting average Joe to have 100k for a down payment this whole scenario is highly unlikely in the first place.

 

Secondly with the credit market going down the toilet at a beyond historical rate, interest rates north of 10% are not at all unexpected in the next couple of years. Let's take a nice doubling (14%) as a round number that is not out of the question. Shooting for the same number as a payment in this environment gets you a 200k loan considering the 100k cash is still in your account for a down payment after dealing with high interest credit card and auto loan payments. That right there is a 40% decline in price due to affordability and ~$300 per sq ft. $2600 plus taxes, HOAs and associated costs is quite steep for 1000sq ft. With my pretty respectable family income and having an actual family to put in there that is an undesirable cost/benefit living scenario anyways and is still likely to be well above the rental costs on the same small condo in that environment. All one has to do is take a look at the ABX to see that higher real rates are coming and they will come with a vengence. That will likely knock Chuckie First-Time Home buyer (and likely family starter) away from paying anywhere near current pricing on a small place like that.

 

 

[KIBU]

Perry Chase, downtown has many great things, the only bad things about downtown for me are:

1.Downtown has more sex offenders than elsewhere in the county and its school
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20061217/news_1m17sex.html

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20061119/news_1m19families.html

Not ideal for family with kids.

2. Parking problems
3. Traffic

I go downtown almost everyweek for fun. But I can’t afford down there for price they want.

[KIBU]

Perry Chase, downtown has many great things, the only bad things about downtown for me are:

1.Downtown has more sex offenders than elsewhere in the county and its school
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20061217/news_1m17sex.html

http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20061119/news_1m19families.html

Not ideal for family with kids.

2. Parking problems
3. Traffic

I go downtown almost everyweek for fun. But I can’t afford down there for price they want.

[nodunk]

I am a baby boomer who just listed his home near Beverly Hills 2 weeks ago with the intention of buying a condo in downtown San Diego for my retirement residence. After reading all these posts this morning from people who seem to know whats happening in your downtown, I am wondering if I am making a mistake in wanting to live in downtown San Diego. We visited downtown for the first time in about 10 years last summer and came away thinking we could retire here-walk to shops and restaurants and enjoy the best weather in America! My impression of downtown overall was that it eventually in 10 years or so it could potentially be a mini Manhattan-with all the new construction bringing in businesses to serve a large affluent population. After reading most of these posts on this blog one would think if I buy an 800k new or used condo and don’t like it I would be stuck with a lemon.

[nodunk]

I am a baby boomer who just listed his home near Beverly Hills 2 weeks ago with the intention of buying a condo in downtown San Diego for my retirement residence. After reading all these posts this morning from people who seem to know whats happening in your downtown, I am wondering if I am making a mistake in wanting to live in downtown San Diego. We visited downtown for the first time in about 10 years last summer and came away thinking we could retire here-walk to shops and restaurants and enjoy the best weather in America! My impression of downtown overall was that it eventually in 10 years or so it could potentially be a mini Manhattan-with all the new construction bringing in businesses to serve a large affluent population. After reading most of these posts on this blog one would think if I buy an 800k new or used condo and don’t like it I would be stuck with a lemon.

[NotCranky]

Nodunk,
You might consider getting help from the participants here towards working out a best case scenario lease for downtown?
Maybe get your feet wet with a one year lease with an option to renew?(with a landlord who isn’t at risk for foreclosure)

[Author]

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