The Tipping Point Is Here

[SD Realtor]

I was not trying to be flippant in my post… though that is most likely how it came out. I just think that statements are made with so much emotion… Once more I will point out posts made by people who do want to buy… Once more there are pretty decent active/pending ratios in several zip codes. I completely agree with sdr, I don’t feel there is some point frozen in time where all of the sudden the market stops or plummets altogether. I am not saying the market will not drop as I totally agree it will do that… However these posts where people say, I can just feel it… Oh man… Then that gets everyone all frothed up… to me that makes the board here seem a bit less…well you can choose your own adjective.

Of course there are rampant defaults, and lots of signs that indicate the market should do this or that… yet that is not how it works, nor has it ever worked that way.

Why is it so hard to accept that the market will move at given pace?

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

I was not trying to be flippant in my post… though that is most likely how it came out. I just think that statements are made with so much emotion… Once more I will point out posts made by people who do want to buy… Once more there are pretty decent active/pending ratios in several zip codes. I completely agree with sdr, I don’t feel there is some point frozen in time where all of the sudden the market stops or plummets altogether. I am not saying the market will not drop as I totally agree it will do that… However these posts where people say, I can just feel it… Oh man… Then that gets everyone all frothed up… to me that makes the board here seem a bit less…well you can choose your own adjective.

Of course there are rampant defaults, and lots of signs that indicate the market should do this or that… yet that is not how it works, nor has it ever worked that way.

Why is it so hard to accept that the market will move at given pace?

SD Realtor

[Bugs]

I gotta go with the “slow-and-incremental” rate of change. The RE markets are relatively illiquid and they don’t respond rapidly. I think the current trend for unwinding these pricing structures will take years, not months. It’ll take significantly longer to “correct” than it did to “distort”.

[Bugs]

I gotta go with the “slow-and-incremental” rate of change. The RE markets are relatively illiquid and they don’t respond rapidly. I think the current trend for unwinding these pricing structures will take years, not months. It’ll take significantly longer to “correct” than it did to “distort”.

[Enorah]

I’m going to be a bit clearer about what I mean. I have only followed the housing drama for the last year or so. We moved out to CA about three years ago, and I was amazed at what people were willing to pay to live. I still am. I am sometimes amazed at what I am willing to pay, but then again I remember that this reality is all made up anyways. It is all a game. All a virtual construct of our emotions and thoughts taking form.

But I digress. Two and a half years ago, six months after we moved to this state, I was talking with a neighbor about the cost of housing, the insanity that was pushing prices higher and higher (we were in Sonoma county at the time), and I looked at him and said, “It’s all going to come crashing down”. To which he replied, “No it won’t, ’cause there will always be another idiot willing to pay.”

I walked away from that conversation without responding to his last statement because I have learned that it is pointless to argue with someone when I express a thought based on an emotion as strong as that one was. I have no way of substantiating my claims because my process is intuitive and emotional.

About a year later I was lead to Patrick’s housing crash website and saw there, on line, in words, exactly the thoughts that were in my head the day I had conversed with my neighbor. I have spent the last year, reading, every day, many housing blogs. I have spent the last year wondering when it was I was going to feel what it is I felt today.

In my opinion, intuitive and emotionally based as it may be, something big just shifted.

[Enorah]

I’m going to be a bit clearer about what I mean. I have only followed the housing drama for the last year or so. We moved out to CA about three years ago, and I was amazed at what people were willing to pay to live. I still am. I am sometimes amazed at what I am willing to pay, but then again I remember that this reality is all made up anyways. It is all a game. All a virtual construct of our emotions and thoughts taking form.

But I digress. Two and a half years ago, six months after we moved to this state, I was talking with a neighbor about the cost of housing, the insanity that was pushing prices higher and higher (we were in Sonoma county at the time), and I looked at him and said, “It’s all going to come crashing down”. To which he replied, “No it won’t, ’cause there will always be another idiot willing to pay.”

I walked away from that conversation without responding to his last statement because I have learned that it is pointless to argue with someone when I express a thought based on an emotion as strong as that one was. I have no way of substantiating my claims because my process is intuitive and emotional.

About a year later I was lead to Patrick’s housing crash website and saw there, on line, in words, exactly the thoughts that were in my head the day I had conversed with my neighbor. I have spent the last year, reading, every day, many housing blogs. I have spent the last year wondering when it was I was going to feel what it is I felt today.

In my opinion, intuitive and emotionally based as it may be, something big just shifted.

[SD Realtor]

Point well taken Enorah… We will see if the big shift yields tangible results in a month or two, or over the next few years.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Point well taken Enorah… We will see if the big shift yields tangible results in a month or two, or over the next few years.

SD Realtor

[GoUSC]

While there isn’t a tipping point per se there is definately a point where the general increase trend stops increasing or bouncing along steady state and starts a long trend downwards. We might be there…but it is going to take a long time to unwind.

I still emphatically believe that prices have to unravel to more reasonable numbers inline with the economics of today. If not I give up and will just rent and be smarter for the rest of my life 🙂

[GoUSC]

While there isn’t a tipping point per se there is definately a point where the general increase trend stops increasing or bouncing along steady state and starts a long trend downwards. We might be there…but it is going to take a long time to unwind.

I still emphatically believe that prices have to unravel to more reasonable numbers inline with the economics of today. If not I give up and will just rent and be smarter for the rest of my life 🙂

[Enorah]

I agree, we will see. I mean that in all sincerity. Interpreting intuitive information is a complicated process. 🙂

edited to add: I was replying to SD Realtor there

[Enorah]

I agree, we will see. I mean that in all sincerity. Interpreting intuitive information is a complicated process. 🙂

edited to add: I was replying to SD Realtor there

[drunkle]

i think it has to do with the media spin. before, it was “there’s no problem”, then “it’s contained” and now “we’re dooooOOOOOOMMMMEEEEEDDDD—D!!!!!” /bender.

[drunkle]

i think it has to do with the media spin. before, it was “there’s no problem”, then “it’s contained” and now “we’re dooooOOOOOOMMMMEEEEEDDDD—D!!!!!” /bender.

[PerryChase]

I think that there is such a thing as herd mentalilty.
We do what our social contacts do and talk about.

I believe that people have finally stopped talking about real estate at dinner parties and backyard BBQs. Do people still brag about and try to convince their friends and relatives to buy real estate?

Here’s a study about how people subconsciously imitate their peers. Not surprising at all. Monkey see, monkey do.
http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/health/20070725-1426-bn25weight.html

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