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SD Realtor
ParticipantMan it is so odd seeing that list… I was in some of these neighborhoods recently… jeez I freeking showed a client 18588 Locksley! In fact a few months back I posted about a home in RB where we submitted an offer in the asking range and got snubbed by the seller… Well you guessed it.. it was on Locksley. It did not burn like 18588 but it is still listed as active.
Also showed Lancashire… in fact…18551 Lancashire is PENDING… man that just takes the wind out of you…
ParticipantYes I would heartily agree that this or most of these fires at least to me appear to be started by humans…I would speculate that none of them were naturally started. With that said, if you go back and look at previous “firestorms” even in 2003, there are ALMOST ALWAYS multiple fires that crop up… From Malibu to Irvine to San Diego the fact that they all happened at the same time is absolutely no surprise to me… Seriously though, look back in history and you will see that it is almost uncanny how that happens… To me it is just the way that sick people get thier rocks off… pretty darned sad. I know that is pretty cynical but…
Again, most anyone who is a native Southern Californian can attest that firestorms are rarely a single fire and most often are multiple and in some case many fires that flare up within the same day or two.
SD Realtor
ParticipantYes I would heartily agree that this or most of these fires at least to me appear to be started by humans…I would speculate that none of them were naturally started. With that said, if you go back and look at previous “firestorms” even in 2003, there are ALMOST ALWAYS multiple fires that crop up… From Malibu to Irvine to San Diego the fact that they all happened at the same time is absolutely no surprise to me… Seriously though, look back in history and you will see that it is almost uncanny how that happens… To me it is just the way that sick people get thier rocks off… pretty darned sad. I know that is pretty cynical but…
Again, most anyone who is a native Southern Californian can attest that firestorms are rarely a single fire and most often are multiple and in some case many fires that flare up within the same day or two.
SD Realtor
ParticipantYes I would heartily agree that this or most of these fires at least to me appear to be started by humans…I would speculate that none of them were naturally started. With that said, if you go back and look at previous “firestorms” even in 2003, there are ALMOST ALWAYS multiple fires that crop up… From Malibu to Irvine to San Diego the fact that they all happened at the same time is absolutely no surprise to me… Seriously though, look back in history and you will see that it is almost uncanny how that happens… To me it is just the way that sick people get thier rocks off… pretty darned sad. I know that is pretty cynical but…
Again, most anyone who is a native Southern Californian can attest that firestorms are rarely a single fire and most often are multiple and in some case many fires that flare up within the same day or two.
SD Realtor
Participantkewp I mentioned the firefighter arson event because it is much more probable… I went to high school with a guy named Jack Conger… he was kind of a sketchy dude… well turns out that he grew up to a sketchy adult and indeed started a pretty big fire in Topanga many years back… just to get work. He was a firefighter.
As far as checking the statistics… if we had a fire in downtown san diego it would have a huge statistical spike… a ton of homes that burned were foreclosures or short sales, imagine that! If we have a monster fire in Rancho Santa Fe we will not… So I don’t really understand the statistics you are pointing to…
If a community burns then a community burns… if you take the number of homes in that community and then make a ratio of the number of distressed homes in it, then your measurements are meaningless because even distressed communities like Lemon Grove for instance have crappy pockets and not crappy pockets. Are you saying that if there are 10,000 homes in a community and 1000 are distressed then there better be a 1 in 10 ratio of burned homes as well? It is purely very much of a reach to try to use ratios like you are thinking to find a so called smoking gun. Really, I do not dispute that maybe some random idiots torched thier home while homes around his burned (though I highly doubt it) but I still think it is a bigtime reach.
SD Realtor
Participantkewp I mentioned the firefighter arson event because it is much more probable… I went to high school with a guy named Jack Conger… he was kind of a sketchy dude… well turns out that he grew up to a sketchy adult and indeed started a pretty big fire in Topanga many years back… just to get work. He was a firefighter.
As far as checking the statistics… if we had a fire in downtown san diego it would have a huge statistical spike… a ton of homes that burned were foreclosures or short sales, imagine that! If we have a monster fire in Rancho Santa Fe we will not… So I don’t really understand the statistics you are pointing to…
If a community burns then a community burns… if you take the number of homes in that community and then make a ratio of the number of distressed homes in it, then your measurements are meaningless because even distressed communities like Lemon Grove for instance have crappy pockets and not crappy pockets. Are you saying that if there are 10,000 homes in a community and 1000 are distressed then there better be a 1 in 10 ratio of burned homes as well? It is purely very much of a reach to try to use ratios like you are thinking to find a so called smoking gun. Really, I do not dispute that maybe some random idiots torched thier home while homes around his burned (though I highly doubt it) but I still think it is a bigtime reach.
SD Realtor
Participantkewp I mentioned the firefighter arson event because it is much more probable… I went to high school with a guy named Jack Conger… he was kind of a sketchy dude… well turns out that he grew up to a sketchy adult and indeed started a pretty big fire in Topanga many years back… just to get work. He was a firefighter.
As far as checking the statistics… if we had a fire in downtown san diego it would have a huge statistical spike… a ton of homes that burned were foreclosures or short sales, imagine that! If we have a monster fire in Rancho Santa Fe we will not… So I don’t really understand the statistics you are pointing to…
If a community burns then a community burns… if you take the number of homes in that community and then make a ratio of the number of distressed homes in it, then your measurements are meaningless because even distressed communities like Lemon Grove for instance have crappy pockets and not crappy pockets. Are you saying that if there are 10,000 homes in a community and 1000 are distressed then there better be a 1 in 10 ratio of burned homes as well? It is purely very much of a reach to try to use ratios like you are thinking to find a so called smoking gun. Really, I do not dispute that maybe some random idiots torched thier home while homes around his burned (though I highly doubt it) but I still think it is a bigtime reach.
SD Realtor
Participantkewp I understand what you are saying but I just disagree to the nth degree… To me there is more merit saying an out of work firefighter started the fires cuz he needed work!
Could it be that a distressed homeowner torched his house during this tragedy? It would not be out of the realm of possibility but as Rich pointed out in another thread, anyone that does do that may be in for a woeful surprise when they make a claim.
“An interesting experiment, after all this is over, is figure out what % of destroyed properties were in some state of foreclosure. Now compare that to the average for the same areas.”
Arrrrrrrrgggggg get me some tape to tape wrap around my head so it doesn’t explode!!!
SD Realtor
Participantkewp I understand what you are saying but I just disagree to the nth degree… To me there is more merit saying an out of work firefighter started the fires cuz he needed work!
Could it be that a distressed homeowner torched his house during this tragedy? It would not be out of the realm of possibility but as Rich pointed out in another thread, anyone that does do that may be in for a woeful surprise when they make a claim.
“An interesting experiment, after all this is over, is figure out what % of destroyed properties were in some state of foreclosure. Now compare that to the average for the same areas.”
Arrrrrrrrgggggg get me some tape to tape wrap around my head so it doesn’t explode!!!
SD Realtor
Participantkewp I understand what you are saying but I just disagree to the nth degree… To me there is more merit saying an out of work firefighter started the fires cuz he needed work!
Could it be that a distressed homeowner torched his house during this tragedy? It would not be out of the realm of possibility but as Rich pointed out in another thread, anyone that does do that may be in for a woeful surprise when they make a claim.
“An interesting experiment, after all this is over, is figure out what % of destroyed properties were in some state of foreclosure. Now compare that to the average for the same areas.”
Arrrrrrrrgggggg get me some tape to tape wrap around my head so it doesn’t explode!!!
SD Realtor
ParticipantPW – Pretty much all developers or conversions use thier own contract because for liability limitation. Conversions will have a small volume of liability release nomenclature for builders defects while new homes will have thier own reductions of contingency timelines etc…
So yes thier is not a single developer or conversion that I know of that does not use thier own private contract. Yeppers your assumption about favorability is 100% correct.
SD Realtor
ParticipantPW – Pretty much all developers or conversions use thier own contract because for liability limitation. Conversions will have a small volume of liability release nomenclature for builders defects while new homes will have thier own reductions of contingency timelines etc…
So yes thier is not a single developer or conversion that I know of that does not use thier own private contract. Yeppers your assumption about favorability is 100% correct.
SD Realtor
ParticipantPW – Pretty much all developers or conversions use thier own contract because for liability limitation. Conversions will have a small volume of liability release nomenclature for builders defects while new homes will have thier own reductions of contingency timelines etc…
So yes thier is not a single developer or conversion that I know of that does not use thier own private contract. Yeppers your assumption about favorability is 100% correct.
SD Realtor
October 22, 2007 at 11:02 AM in reply to: “The Subprime Blame Game: Where Were the Realtors?” #90551ParticipantJWM I wouldn’t look down on anyone regardless of the invention. I know of a someone who came up with a “stupid idea” a few years back with putting a wheel on the bottom of shoe. He has done pretty well… Just because the idea doesn’t conform to your idea about “real” startups doesn’t mean it will not work. I met the guy who came up with the idea for putting a freeking plastic bag around newspapers… not much technology involved in that pursuit as well. He has done okay.
SD Realtor
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