[scaredyclassic]

Its not THAT bad.

But i was really counting on sdsu. My top choice.

30k cheaper, plus an hour away to visit.

Kid cares a bit less than me
.

But then again its not his 30k, and he isnt as excited about visits as i am.

Cal st san marcos i guess is my safety school

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=Coronita]its weird though because the kids in question has a 3.2 and 1050 sat when SATs were still being used at UC schools.

that just seems unusually low for a sought after premed major at UCI. unless it’s really easy to get into UCI premed programs (I doubt it)

Or unless his parents are lying and he didn’t get into a premed program.

Just really trying to understand this huge discrepancy that some people are saying happens with higher achievments.[/quote]

I dont think uci has a premed program. Judt individ. Majors. I just checked website, theres a post bacc premed program, but i dont see a “pre med” major

My kid did get into uci. We visited. He did not like it. Prob. Cause no friends going there?

I have a feeling sdsu is going to be the elite school now,

Due to being half price and in gorgeous location.

Cal state says its just numbers…i dont think the calstate app has an essay. Just uc.

[scaredyclassic]

This problem may be caused in part by police militarization.

Hierarchy. Obeying commands. Superior officers. Etc.

What if instead, all cops were equal.

Prob. Wouldnt have mattered here, as these guys were likely on a probationary period, where theyd want mgt to like them

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=Hobie]From a strategic point of view I would reinstate the newbys. After what they saw, experienced, lived through, they would be the best teacher to other cops to follow protocols to the letter. Then all ships would rise.[/quote]

Insightful point.

Prolly not politically tenable. But

Maybe they could do that for comnunity service hours.

If they ever get out of prison

[scaredyclassic]

I talked to admissions at sdsu. Kid applied to bio. 4.2 gpa, 97th or 98th perc SAT. Pretty sure 98th.

Guy said it was most brutal yr ever for bio at sdsu

Other majors, much easier.

Very major and time dependent.

General school numbers of likely admisdion no longer really a useful guide.

Even the admissions person seemed a little stunned that kid missed the cutoff.

Very very different year by year.

Got into bio at ucsb. On the old days, the result wouldve been flipped.

Feel like HLS talking about refi criteria.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=outtamojo]I am impressed – need to come up with something for rubber bullets next.
https://news.yahoo.com/black-lives-matter-demonstrators-using-151134821.html%5B/quote%5D

I love that repurposing!

Riot Shield plexiglass riot shield Shindn Transparent Police shield polycarbonate Tear gas shield

Rubber bullets just need to protest with a shield.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=gzz]

I.m not saying there’s an equivalence between student loans and police killings

Free college increases inequality. We all think about the poor kid who uses college to reach the middle class who would benefit from free college.

The reality is such situation is rare, and people from truly poor and working class families who are college material have a lot of cheap college options already between the GI Bill, private scholarships, Pell Grants, community college + scholarship to cheap state school. But they mostly don’t go to college at all because their friends and family didn’t, and they do not enjoy school enough to want to continue it further.

The main impact of free college would be upper middle class people who graduate with 50-100k in debt and then earn top 10 or 20% incomes would be 50-100k richer when they graduate (or their parents would have another 50-100k).[/quote]

i guess im getting pretty cheap, but every 18 to 22 year old is broke.

why does society expect me to pay for my adult kids? seriously. These arent kids. these are adults.

it was different when the numbers werent so large, maybe, like if I had to cough up a few extra bucks.

i could earn a years tuition at a state univ over the summer in 1981

now…

it’s not like a little extra help. 100-300k is actual money.

so you see bumperstickers like, my kid and all my money go to stanford univ.

in general, we tell people, your parents money is not your money. dont count on it, dont expect anything, if they want to help you they will, but it’s theirs not yours.

yet with college, that goes out the window. kids and society expect you to pay.

your wealth is their wealth for aid purposes, and really just an expectation ofsupport.

why?
yeah, if college were free, the middle class kid will be richer if he got free college in a strictly accounting way.

but

I dont really think of being debt-free as being “richer”. are kids really “rich” if they get out of school with no debt?

is a homeless guy with 38 cents richer than a guy 300k in the hole with credit cards maxed out and a benz in his driveway?

just that statement makes me want to barf a little.

yeah i get that one has more potential than the other…

but i think it’s just that everyone at least start at zero. that seems reasonable. debt feels awful.

having been hobbled with 6 figure debt, with a supposedly lucrative degree, i still found it difficult to make it, i dont want my kdis in debt, i dont want to pay, i dont like the system, and it doesnt seem very fair overall.

IN other news, im cranky, frustrated, tired, i feel old, I’m losing my hair, everything seems like bullshit, i’m sick of the state of the union and im distressed about the state of the world, i dont think things are going to be ok, I need a haircut and I’m scared to be near other people.

also im completely full of shit because my parents paid cash to send me to an ivy league college.

but they didnt pay 4 law school…so maybe im just half full of shit?

i thnk Im going to put in my advance directive that if i
start watching fox news, I want all life support measures including food and water and oxygen, withheld from me. let me die. hopefully i pull out of this funk.

[scaredyclassic]

ah, you’re right. i do in my heart believe there is some reality that things have to come back to.

i think my statements are just evidence that i’ve finally capitulated to the bulls, which is an extremely bearish sign.

here’s what i find difficult personally, and why i think it’s important to automatic invest. sometimes good things happen to you, repeatedly, and you pile up much more cash than you might have expected. it’s very difficult to put it anywhere and to wait for “value”. where if you’re just on a robot invest situation,a nd everything is set every month, there’s no more thinking.

it feels like when you are stuck with a lot of cash, you by default become kind of market timer, even if it’s a relatively long term investment because you sit there waiting to pull a trigger. but that’s not really market timing, that’s just being afraid to commit to the buy portion of buy a nd hold on a given day with a large amount of money.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=Rich Toscano][quote=svelte][quote=Rich Toscano]

Where we might part ways is in other risk assets. There are areas of the global stock market that — even after this huge rally — are still priced for positive long-term returns. In specific, developed intl value stocks are priced for returns that are slightly under the average stock returns — not great but ok. Emerging value stocks are priced for substantially higher than normal returns.
[/quote]

So here is where I get confused.

I’m pretty sure I’ve heard you say, Rich, that one shouldn’t try and time the market but should invest for the long term as in decades.

But the above sounds like you’re advocating investing in those areas that, at the present time, give the best chance for above average returns.

Is that not timing the market?[/quote]

No, that is not timing the market!

And also no, the thing above that is not what I am saying. I’ll start with that one. I’m not saying you have to invest for decades. I’m saying that you have to consider that the price for stocks is based on decades’ worth of their expected earnings. So, shorter term changes to that earnings stream should not, in theory, change their fair value all that much. (In practice, of course, it often does, but that’s a whole separate topic). But that’s not the same as saying that an investor necessarily needs to hold them for decades.

OK, onto the fun question. This is one that I have strong opinions on, so apologies in advance for what will probably be a surfeit of exclamation points.

Anyway no, a thousand times no — value investing is NOT market timing!

Let me illustrate with an example to start. Let’s say there is a modest condo that, if you bought it, you could rent out for $1,000/month. It’s for sale for $5 million.

Would you buy it? No, of course not. Why would you buy something for $5 mil when it only rents out for $1k/month? It’s way too expensive.

Is this market timing? Again — of course not. You simply evaluated what the investment is worth, and compared that to the actual price (the key point here being that those 2 things can be different).

It’s no different with stocks or anything else.

Market timing entails making guesses about what the market will do over the short term. It’s path dependent.

The thing I’m talking about here (which I describe as value investing as shorthand) entails having an estimate of likely longer term returns, and investing accordingly. It is not path dependent.

Let’s take US stocks as an example. I mentioned that I’m bearish on the S&P500. Is this because of a necessarily dismal economic outlook? No! It’s due to valuation. The S&P500 is very expensive. It is pricing in an unusually great outcome. If you merely get an average or even above-average outcome… it is likely to do poorly.

So my “claim” here is that the S&P500 is likely to generate poor returns over the coming 7-10 years.

But how will that look? Will there be a crash? Will it just waffle along sideways, without going much of anywhere for many years? Something in between?

I have no idea. To answer that question would be market timing.

But what I’m saying here is: I don’t know the path it will take, but I think it’s likely that when we look back a decade from now, this thing will have done pretty poorly. That’s not market timing. It’s simply having an awareness of what something is worth, and thus the likely returns, before you invest in it.

Does this distinction make sense?[/quote]

kind of.

But it really doesn’t matter what you think it’s worth.

Or even what it is “really” worth.

All that matters is what other potential buyers will think it’s worth. And I guess what you’re saying is that eventually, once we all sober up, we have to come around to good old common sense.

but others are crazy. from the top down, every aspect of government, finance and law is crazy. we never really fully sober up. So isn’t it still timing in the sense that you ahve to say prices are relatively sober right now, as opposed to stupid drunk pricing? How is that not a form of timing.

I might very well buy the 5 million condo if i thought others were going to think it’s worth 10 million in 5 years, regardless of the rent. but even if we assume people are goign to come to their senses, that happens ona timeline, a downward slope,a nd one has to pick a moment of relative soberliness to put money in.

even though you analyze for value, the investment has to be made at a specific time. which is…timing.?

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=gzz]I am somewhat familiar with the various student loan forgiveness programs, I don’t think any of them apply to private loans taken by parents.

6% loan by student that might be forgiven seems better than 1.5% by parent that can’t.

I used the direct loan/stafford program, entirely my loans not parents. They were 2 to 4% when taken out, and the “subsidized” ones just meant no interest while I was in school. When I graduated, I consolidated them into a direct loan at 2.8% 30 year direct loan. (One year I got a 5k 5% loan direct from my university which I paid off immediately upon working because of the high rate).

My entire debt of about 100k at graduation could have been forgiven by working for either the government at any level, OR a non-profit, OR simply by being poor. None of those ultimately applied, but the chance of one of them applying to your child is decent, not to mention additional programs.

During the start-up phase of my business, I deferred and capitalized all my payments for about 2.5 years. It took about 3 minutes to make the request online, and it amounted to about a 10k startup loan at 2.8%.[/quote]

interesting.

but it’s absolutely terrible that one has to make all these unknowable calculations on the odds of your kids various trajectories to figure whether it’s better to pay upfront or have him borrow and backstop him.

i mean, jeez. it’s kind of a start up loan; but not really. it’s a giant hole society dug for you that you were stuck in and they agreed not to throw dirt on your face for a while, as long as you agreed to deepen the hole, but fortunately not that much, just 2.8% deeper a year

boogaloo. blm. maybe there’s just a general sense of rage at a society that feels predatory. I m not saying theres an equivalence between student loans and police killigns…but maybe theres a connection

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=Coronita]So there you go scardey…

(You’re welcome…)

I’m really disappointed she disconnected before I had a chance to send her the link to this thread. Damnit!

I know, I know… Such an ahole FLU thing to do…

But someone’s got to do it![/quote]

thanks

this is probably illegal for everyone but Sallie Mae to do.

I hate student loans. hate them with a seething passion. I recently paid mine off after 25 years. that includes a few very shaky bad years toward the beginning of the loan period. I mean, being a responsible fellow, it actually took a toll on my health.

But i didnt want to let my prejudice stand in the way of a screaming deal, if that’s what this was.

my hatred continues to burn unabated. motherfuckers! if there were a way to riot and loot against student loans, i might. but it’s like railing against capitalism, or the sun. it’s justa fixture of reality.

curse you, sun, we need more moon!

[scaredyclassic]

I wonder if this violates any truth in lending laws.

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=davelj][quote=scaredyclassic]

I do not believe that any stock price bears any relation to any economic reality.

[/quote]

Perhaps not right now. But they do, occasionally. Your job as an investor is to figure out – roughly – when and where the opportunities lie with the understanding that you’re going to be approximately wrong a lot.[/quote]

But isn’t that just hubris. Basically you are saying, be smarter than the marketplace, find the opportunity everyone else missed, in a marketplace that adjusts prices by the nanosecond, and which sets prices based on all possible knowable information, including everyone in the world, the smartest, most informed, best capitalized people. There is realistically no way to be smarter than them, is there?

auto investing in an index fund is far more humble and realistic, isnt it?

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=scaredyclassic][quote=NeetaT]No, sorry guys, I made it all up. The information came from official police reports. Yes, the police, the people you guys hate. FAKE police documents! Yes! Sorry!

Oh no, it’s me, the right wing nut-case![/quote]i dont think you’re any kind of a nutcase. I think you’re a fairly typical juror. I think you’d acquit chaunvin, and i think most people willa gree with that result.

by definition, if your viewpoint is accepted as normal by the majority, you’re not a nut, you’re a sane individual.

i might be a nutcase, in fact ive been told im a nutcase, and i dispute that, but im much more likely to be a nutcase than you are. I woudl say, based on your comment, you are definitely not a nutcase.

IM going to try to restate your opinion, and feel free to correct me if im getting it wrong, because i dont want to put words in your mouth.

I think your opinion is basically, dude had it coming to him, good riddance, clean up the streets, victim rights>defendant rights, harsher penalties, and if we can’t lock guys up forever, then let the police work it out with them on the streets.

there’s nothing abnormal about that opinion. You could state it a little more clearly though.

just say it. stop being so PC

screw these dirtbags.[/quote]

Scaredy, earlier today, I remembered your “translation” when I saw ALL LIVES MATTER in all caps on facebook. You write so well. How would interpret ALL LIVES MATTER in response to BLM?[/quote]

BLM: Systemic Racism keeps black people down.

ALM: The system is fair and color blind.

BLM: In 2014, African Americans constituted 2.3 million, or 34%, of the total 6.8 million correctional population.

ALM: Each of those cases was heard in a neutral, color blind court.

BLM: So black people are just more dangerous?

ALM: You said it, not me. And I think you may be the racist here.

BLM: African Americans are incarcerated at more than 5 times the rate of whites. Doesn’t that at least begin to suggest there might be some societal problem.

ALM: No. We all have free will. We all make decisions. And we will all be held accountable for our decisions.

BLM: What about the history of America? Does that not have any effect on today.

ALM: What’s past is past. It’s so long ago. My ancestors didn’t hold slaves or incarcerate southern blacks for petty crimes and force labor. All we can do is address the present moment.

BLM: So long ago? Seems like only yesterday marrying a white woman was a crime. Arent we all the product of the infinite range of social forces that bear upon us?

ALM: Perhaps, but it’s irrelevant to doing justice today. We do it case by case.

BLM: Well, it sure doesn’t seem like justice is being done to some folk. It definitely feels like blacks are going to get different treatment from the cops and courts than whites. Even if things are just, which I’m not conceding, isn’t it problematic that things don’t appear just?

ALM: Deal with it.

BLM: Are you for reals saying nothing needs to change.

ALM: Pretty much. We have the greatest country with the greatest justice system and the best police int he world.

BLM: For reals? Fuck you.

ALM: You people need to learn some manners.

(mutual combat fighting ensues when ALM puts his forefinger in BLM’s face; cops arrive, shoot the black guy, dust off the white guy)).

[scaredyclassic]

[quote=svelte][quote=scaredyclassic][quote=svelte][quote=scaredyclassic]the old countercultural tshirt was:

Join the Army; travel to exotic, distant lands; meet exciting, unusual people and kill them

strike exotic distant lands, replace with Minnesota.

https://www.sheaff-ephemera.com/list/odds_ends_album/join-the-army.html

aren’t military uniforms pretty easily purchased? What’s to stop protestors from dressing up in fatigues?[/quote]

They probably could, but military folks are very in tune to how uniforms are worn – they can spot something out of place very quickly. So fatigues would probably only work at a distance.[/quote]

at night? during a riot?[/quote]

As I was saying…

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8387141/Man-trying-pass-member-National-Guard-arrested-Los-Angeles.html%5B/quote%5D

Details matter

[Author]

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