[Running Bear]

I’m not jumping into gold right now. I think we have a major global asset bubble that needs to have some air let out and gold will be hit.(my opinion) If you are going to keep your money in dollars the TIP is a safe play. The problem with this investment is the dollar keeps falling and I don’t see any fundamentals to stop it. Just because so many people are negative on the dollar isn’t enough for me to believe in any kind of sustained rebound will occur. I think we will have short aggressive bounces but that is all they will be until our economy starts to recover and we stop cutting rates. The one caveat to this is a massive aggressive sell off and a flight to quality in the world markets. This will cause a large bounce in dollars since it is still the reserve currency. I am ready and prepared to jump back into the dollar if I see early signs of this happening.

The strongest trade I think right now if you believe a credit event is coming and we will have a large drop in global markets is the Yen. I don’t have time to get into all of the reasons for this but I would recommend doing some research into the Yen carry trade and getting a handle on why the yen will see big jumps when markets sell off. The Yen has moved quite a bit since I got in at 115.00 so I wouldn’t jump in right now. Wait until we see another suckers rally for a while then average in.

Of course, don’t put all of you eggs in one basket. The yen is a spec trade so take that into consideration. If you want to be very conservative the TIP play is a safe bet. Just don’t plan any trips to Europe in the near future. I went to Zurich in October and it was eye opening how weak the dollar is.

my2cents

[Running Bear]

I’m not jumping into gold right now. I think we have a major global asset bubble that needs to have some air let out and gold will be hit.(my opinion) If you are going to keep your money in dollars the TIP is a safe play. The problem with this investment is the dollar keeps falling and I don’t see any fundamentals to stop it. Just because so many people are negative on the dollar isn’t enough for me to believe in any kind of sustained rebound will occur. I think we will have short aggressive bounces but that is all they will be until our economy starts to recover and we stop cutting rates. The one caveat to this is a massive aggressive sell off and a flight to quality in the world markets. This will cause a large bounce in dollars since it is still the reserve currency. I am ready and prepared to jump back into the dollar if I see early signs of this happening.

The strongest trade I think right now if you believe a credit event is coming and we will have a large drop in global markets is the Yen. I don’t have time to get into all of the reasons for this but I would recommend doing some research into the Yen carry trade and getting a handle on why the yen will see big jumps when markets sell off. The Yen has moved quite a bit since I got in at 115.00 so I wouldn’t jump in right now. Wait until we see another suckers rally for a while then average in.

Of course, don’t put all of you eggs in one basket. The yen is a spec trade so take that into consideration. If you want to be very conservative the TIP play is a safe bet. Just don’t plan any trips to Europe in the near future. I went to Zurich in October and it was eye opening how weak the dollar is.

my2cents

[Running Bear]

I’m not jumping into gold right now. I think we have a major global asset bubble that needs to have some air let out and gold will be hit.(my opinion) If you are going to keep your money in dollars the TIP is a safe play. The problem with this investment is the dollar keeps falling and I don’t see any fundamentals to stop it. Just because so many people are negative on the dollar isn’t enough for me to believe in any kind of sustained rebound will occur. I think we will have short aggressive bounces but that is all they will be until our economy starts to recover and we stop cutting rates. The one caveat to this is a massive aggressive sell off and a flight to quality in the world markets. This will cause a large bounce in dollars since it is still the reserve currency. I am ready and prepared to jump back into the dollar if I see early signs of this happening.

The strongest trade I think right now if you believe a credit event is coming and we will have a large drop in global markets is the Yen. I don’t have time to get into all of the reasons for this but I would recommend doing some research into the Yen carry trade and getting a handle on why the yen will see big jumps when markets sell off. The Yen has moved quite a bit since I got in at 115.00 so I wouldn’t jump in right now. Wait until we see another suckers rally for a while then average in.

Of course, don’t put all of you eggs in one basket. The yen is a spec trade so take that into consideration. If you want to be very conservative the TIP play is a safe bet. Just don’t plan any trips to Europe in the near future. I went to Zurich in October and it was eye opening how weak the dollar is.

my2cents

[Running Bear]

I’m not jumping into gold right now. I think we have a major global asset bubble that needs to have some air let out and gold will be hit.(my opinion) If you are going to keep your money in dollars the TIP is a safe play. The problem with this investment is the dollar keeps falling and I don’t see any fundamentals to stop it. Just because so many people are negative on the dollar isn’t enough for me to believe in any kind of sustained rebound will occur. I think we will have short aggressive bounces but that is all they will be until our economy starts to recover and we stop cutting rates. The one caveat to this is a massive aggressive sell off and a flight to quality in the world markets. This will cause a large bounce in dollars since it is still the reserve currency. I am ready and prepared to jump back into the dollar if I see early signs of this happening.

The strongest trade I think right now if you believe a credit event is coming and we will have a large drop in global markets is the Yen. I don’t have time to get into all of the reasons for this but I would recommend doing some research into the Yen carry trade and getting a handle on why the yen will see big jumps when markets sell off. The Yen has moved quite a bit since I got in at 115.00 so I wouldn’t jump in right now. Wait until we see another suckers rally for a while then average in.

Of course, don’t put all of you eggs in one basket. The yen is a spec trade so take that into consideration. If you want to be very conservative the TIP play is a safe bet. Just don’t plan any trips to Europe in the near future. I went to Zurich in October and it was eye opening how weak the dollar is.

my2cents

[Running Bear]

I’m not jumping into gold right now. I think we have a major global asset bubble that needs to have some air let out and gold will be hit.(my opinion) If you are going to keep your money in dollars the TIP is a safe play. The problem with this investment is the dollar keeps falling and I don’t see any fundamentals to stop it. Just because so many people are negative on the dollar isn’t enough for me to believe in any kind of sustained rebound will occur. I think we will have short aggressive bounces but that is all they will be until our economy starts to recover and we stop cutting rates. The one caveat to this is a massive aggressive sell off and a flight to quality in the world markets. This will cause a large bounce in dollars since it is still the reserve currency. I am ready and prepared to jump back into the dollar if I see early signs of this happening.

The strongest trade I think right now if you believe a credit event is coming and we will have a large drop in global markets is the Yen. I don’t have time to get into all of the reasons for this but I would recommend doing some research into the Yen carry trade and getting a handle on why the yen will see big jumps when markets sell off. The Yen has moved quite a bit since I got in at 115.00 so I wouldn’t jump in right now. Wait until we see another suckers rally for a while then average in.

Of course, don’t put all of you eggs in one basket. The yen is a spec trade so take that into consideration. If you want to be very conservative the TIP play is a safe bet. Just don’t plan any trips to Europe in the near future. I went to Zurich in October and it was eye opening how weak the dollar is.

my2cents

[Running Bear]

babbleon,

I would be very careful right now in what you moved your investments into. The precious metals and natural resource trades have been very crowded in the last couple of months because they have been seeing large gains. When the true “credit crunch” event comes, these trades are going to see a large drop. All of this fast money will pull out to lock in gains and cover losses in the commercial paper and credit markets. I would seriously consider being much more focused on wealth protection right now and not high returns. Wait until the massacre happens then jump back in. Metals and natural resources will be great long term trades after all of the speculators are knocked out.

my2cents

[Running Bear]

babbleon,

I would be very careful right now in what you moved your investments into. The precious metals and natural resource trades have been very crowded in the last couple of months because they have been seeing large gains. When the true “credit crunch” event comes, these trades are going to see a large drop. All of this fast money will pull out to lock in gains and cover losses in the commercial paper and credit markets. I would seriously consider being much more focused on wealth protection right now and not high returns. Wait until the massacre happens then jump back in. Metals and natural resources will be great long term trades after all of the speculators are knocked out.

my2cents

[Running Bear]

babbleon,

I would be very careful right now in what you moved your investments into. The precious metals and natural resource trades have been very crowded in the last couple of months because they have been seeing large gains. When the true “credit crunch” event comes, these trades are going to see a large drop. All of this fast money will pull out to lock in gains and cover losses in the commercial paper and credit markets. I would seriously consider being much more focused on wealth protection right now and not high returns. Wait until the massacre happens then jump back in. Metals and natural resources will be great long term trades after all of the speculators are knocked out.

my2cents

[Running Bear]

babbleon,

I would be very careful right now in what you moved your investments into. The precious metals and natural resource trades have been very crowded in the last couple of months because they have been seeing large gains. When the true “credit crunch” event comes, these trades are going to see a large drop. All of this fast money will pull out to lock in gains and cover losses in the commercial paper and credit markets. I would seriously consider being much more focused on wealth protection right now and not high returns. Wait until the massacre happens then jump back in. Metals and natural resources will be great long term trades after all of the speculators are knocked out.

my2cents

[Running Bear]

babbleon,

I would be very careful right now in what you moved your investments into. The precious metals and natural resource trades have been very crowded in the last couple of months because they have been seeing large gains. When the true “credit crunch” event comes, these trades are going to see a large drop. All of this fast money will pull out to lock in gains and cover losses in the commercial paper and credit markets. I would seriously consider being much more focused on wealth protection right now and not high returns. Wait until the massacre happens then jump back in. Metals and natural resources will be great long term trades after all of the speculators are knocked out.

my2cents

[Running Bear]

If you have an E-Trade account and are wondering if you should keep it or not, good blog by Mish.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

[Running Bear]

If you have an E-Trade account and are wondering if you should keep it or not, good blog by Mish.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

[Running Bear]

If you have an E-Trade account and are wondering if you should keep it or not, good blog by Mish.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

[Running Bear]

If you have an E-Trade account and are wondering if you should keep it or not, good blog by Mish.

http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

[Running Bear]

That is the point. I don’t want to be in dollar denominated assets right now. I think we will have a short term bounce in the dollar but my long term outlook is negative. We have lost over 40% of the value of the dollar over the last 6 years and that was when our economy was going strong and the Fed didn’t have its finger on the button ready to flood the market with credit and money at a moments notice.

I encourage you to do some reading on Helo Ben and see what you think his philosophy is. He was a student of the Great Depression and his conclusion was the Fed at the time didn’t cut rates fast enough and therefore caused it to last much longer then it should have. If our country is heading toward a large asset deflation and recession, what do you think he will do? I believe he will very aggressively cut interest rates and flood the market with cash and credit. What effect do you think this will have on the dollar and your wealth held in dollars?

If you believe the housing market is tanking and going down, you need to keep looking down that road and see what the greater consequences are for this economy. If you think that housing is going to drop by a large amount just so we can buy some good deals, you aren’t looking at the broader economy.

The last point is if you believe this country is the only place where there is a housing bubble and credit bubble you need to start reading some articles in England, Spain, Ireland, etc. There is a global asset bubble/credit bubble and I am prepared for the worse case scenario but hoping for the best. We will know much more in the next 18 months how a lot of this stuff will fall out and I will move out of my ultra conservative stance when I have a better read.

I see a large downside risk here in stocks without a huge upside benefit.

my2cents

[Author]

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