[Running Bear]

Radelow,

I am in foreign currencies for some of my cash accounts but before doing that I highly recommend understanding what drives the values.

If we head into a short or mild recession what you see going on now will continue and being out of the dollar would serve you well. Pick a currency like the Aussie$ that has a high interest rate and you will be happy. (I own some)

However, if this downturn goes the way I believe it will, those same currencies will get punished. If you have been watching the Yen and how it is getting stronger, this is a sign the yen carry trade is unwinding. If it unwinds you will see strength in the yen but also the US dollar and most of the speculative (high interest rate) currencies will take a beating. The dollar is still the reserve currency of the world and if we see major market dislocations around the world, people will come back to the dollar eventually.(run home to momma)

There is too much here to go into to try and explain the currency markets and I certainly have only a very small grasp of it myself. Bottom line, if you are going to buy the speculative currencies you need to watch them like a hawk and know when to exit. If you believe we are headed for more pain and the yen carry trade will unwind, having some Yen isn’t a bad idea.

My2Cents

[Running Bear]

Radelow,

I am in foreign currencies for some of my cash accounts but before doing that I highly recommend understanding what drives the values.

If we head into a short or mild recession what you see going on now will continue and being out of the dollar would serve you well. Pick a currency like the Aussie$ that has a high interest rate and you will be happy. (I own some)

However, if this downturn goes the way I believe it will, those same currencies will get punished. If you have been watching the Yen and how it is getting stronger, this is a sign the yen carry trade is unwinding. If it unwinds you will see strength in the yen but also the US dollar and most of the speculative (high interest rate) currencies will take a beating. The dollar is still the reserve currency of the world and if we see major market dislocations around the world, people will come back to the dollar eventually.(run home to momma)

There is too much here to go into to try and explain the currency markets and I certainly have only a very small grasp of it myself. Bottom line, if you are going to buy the speculative currencies you need to watch them like a hawk and know when to exit. If you believe we are headed for more pain and the yen carry trade will unwind, having some Yen isn’t a bad idea.

My2Cents

[Running Bear]

Radelow,

I am in foreign currencies for some of my cash accounts but before doing that I highly recommend understanding what drives the values.

If we head into a short or mild recession what you see going on now will continue and being out of the dollar would serve you well. Pick a currency like the Aussie$ that has a high interest rate and you will be happy. (I own some)

However, if this downturn goes the way I believe it will, those same currencies will get punished. If you have been watching the Yen and how it is getting stronger, this is a sign the yen carry trade is unwinding. If it unwinds you will see strength in the yen but also the US dollar and most of the speculative (high interest rate) currencies will take a beating. The dollar is still the reserve currency of the world and if we see major market dislocations around the world, people will come back to the dollar eventually.(run home to momma)

There is too much here to go into to try and explain the currency markets and I certainly have only a very small grasp of it myself. Bottom line, if you are going to buy the speculative currencies you need to watch them like a hawk and know when to exit. If you believe we are headed for more pain and the yen carry trade will unwind, having some Yen isn’t a bad idea.

My2Cents

[Running Bear]

Radelow,

I am in foreign currencies for some of my cash accounts but before doing that I highly recommend understanding what drives the values.

If we head into a short or mild recession what you see going on now will continue and being out of the dollar would serve you well. Pick a currency like the Aussie$ that has a high interest rate and you will be happy. (I own some)

However, if this downturn goes the way I believe it will, those same currencies will get punished. If you have been watching the Yen and how it is getting stronger, this is a sign the yen carry trade is unwinding. If it unwinds you will see strength in the yen but also the US dollar and most of the speculative (high interest rate) currencies will take a beating. The dollar is still the reserve currency of the world and if we see major market dislocations around the world, people will come back to the dollar eventually.(run home to momma)

There is too much here to go into to try and explain the currency markets and I certainly have only a very small grasp of it myself. Bottom line, if you are going to buy the speculative currencies you need to watch them like a hawk and know when to exit. If you believe we are headed for more pain and the yen carry trade will unwind, having some Yen isn’t a bad idea.

My2Cents

[Running Bear]

Radelow,

I am in foreign currencies for some of my cash accounts but before doing that I highly recommend understanding what drives the values.

If we head into a short or mild recession what you see going on now will continue and being out of the dollar would serve you well. Pick a currency like the Aussie$ that has a high interest rate and you will be happy. (I own some)

However, if this downturn goes the way I believe it will, those same currencies will get punished. If you have been watching the Yen and how it is getting stronger, this is a sign the yen carry trade is unwinding. If it unwinds you will see strength in the yen but also the US dollar and most of the speculative (high interest rate) currencies will take a beating. The dollar is still the reserve currency of the world and if we see major market dislocations around the world, people will come back to the dollar eventually.(run home to momma)

There is too much here to go into to try and explain the currency markets and I certainly have only a very small grasp of it myself. Bottom line, if you are going to buy the speculative currencies you need to watch them like a hawk and know when to exit. If you believe we are headed for more pain and the yen carry trade will unwind, having some Yen isn’t a bad idea.

My2Cents

[Running Bear]

Gents,

I think you are looking at this period with the wrong mentality. We are in pretty uncharted territory and until we see some things wash through the current system I would be thinking in terms of wealth preservation not wealth accumulation. There will be plenty of time to earn money on this downturn but wait for the bottom to show itself and then get in. Missing 10% on the bottom is better than getting in 30% early. I found a chart of the Dow around the 1929 crash with comments from “experts” of the time. If you are going to do some knife catching in the current market play with money that you can throw away. Think of it as buying lottery tickets.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html

My2Cents

[Running Bear]

Gents,

I think you are looking at this period with the wrong mentality. We are in pretty uncharted territory and until we see some things wash through the current system I would be thinking in terms of wealth preservation not wealth accumulation. There will be plenty of time to earn money on this downturn but wait for the bottom to show itself and then get in. Missing 10% on the bottom is better than getting in 30% early. I found a chart of the Dow around the 1929 crash with comments from “experts” of the time. If you are going to do some knife catching in the current market play with money that you can throw away. Think of it as buying lottery tickets.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html

My2Cents

[Running Bear]

Gents,

I think you are looking at this period with the wrong mentality. We are in pretty uncharted territory and until we see some things wash through the current system I would be thinking in terms of wealth preservation not wealth accumulation. There will be plenty of time to earn money on this downturn but wait for the bottom to show itself and then get in. Missing 10% on the bottom is better than getting in 30% early. I found a chart of the Dow around the 1929 crash with comments from “experts” of the time. If you are going to do some knife catching in the current market play with money that you can throw away. Think of it as buying lottery tickets.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html

My2Cents

[Running Bear]

Gents,

I think you are looking at this period with the wrong mentality. We are in pretty uncharted territory and until we see some things wash through the current system I would be thinking in terms of wealth preservation not wealth accumulation. There will be plenty of time to earn money on this downturn but wait for the bottom to show itself and then get in. Missing 10% on the bottom is better than getting in 30% early. I found a chart of the Dow around the 1929 crash with comments from “experts” of the time. If you are going to do some knife catching in the current market play with money that you can throw away. Think of it as buying lottery tickets.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html

My2Cents

[Running Bear]

Gents,

I think you are looking at this period with the wrong mentality. We are in pretty uncharted territory and until we see some things wash through the current system I would be thinking in terms of wealth preservation not wealth accumulation. There will be plenty of time to earn money on this downturn but wait for the bottom to show itself and then get in. Missing 10% on the bottom is better than getting in 30% early. I found a chart of the Dow around the 1929 crash with comments from “experts” of the time. If you are going to do some knife catching in the current market play with money that you can throw away. Think of it as buying lottery tickets.
http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_01/seymour062001.html

My2Cents

[Running Bear]

Gents,

Like SD Realtor said this will only delay the inevitable. The point people aren’t talking about but what is the key problem here is the Securitization of Mortgages. The mechanism that took us to these unaffordable levels was a massive boom in this market. This market is now dead and it isn’t coming back anytime soon. Prices will come down regardless of whether they freeze rates or foreclosures. Now that we are back to much tighter lending standards prices will come down. It is that simple. All this may do is slow down the drop. Instead of the cliff jump we would be looking at in 2008 it won’t be so vertical. If they don’t want the housing market to have a large correction they will have to resurrect this market. That won’t happen.

My2Cents

[Running Bear]

Gents,

Like SD Realtor said this will only delay the inevitable. The point people aren’t talking about but what is the key problem here is the Securitization of Mortgages. The mechanism that took us to these unaffordable levels was a massive boom in this market. This market is now dead and it isn’t coming back anytime soon. Prices will come down regardless of whether they freeze rates or foreclosures. Now that we are back to much tighter lending standards prices will come down. It is that simple. All this may do is slow down the drop. Instead of the cliff jump we would be looking at in 2008 it won’t be so vertical. If they don’t want the housing market to have a large correction they will have to resurrect this market. That won’t happen.

My2Cents

[Running Bear]

Gents,

Like SD Realtor said this will only delay the inevitable. The point people aren’t talking about but what is the key problem here is the Securitization of Mortgages. The mechanism that took us to these unaffordable levels was a massive boom in this market. This market is now dead and it isn’t coming back anytime soon. Prices will come down regardless of whether they freeze rates or foreclosures. Now that we are back to much tighter lending standards prices will come down. It is that simple. All this may do is slow down the drop. Instead of the cliff jump we would be looking at in 2008 it won’t be so vertical. If they don’t want the housing market to have a large correction they will have to resurrect this market. That won’t happen.

My2Cents

[Running Bear]

Gents,

Like SD Realtor said this will only delay the inevitable. The point people aren’t talking about but what is the key problem here is the Securitization of Mortgages. The mechanism that took us to these unaffordable levels was a massive boom in this market. This market is now dead and it isn’t coming back anytime soon. Prices will come down regardless of whether they freeze rates or foreclosures. Now that we are back to much tighter lending standards prices will come down. It is that simple. All this may do is slow down the drop. Instead of the cliff jump we would be looking at in 2008 it won’t be so vertical. If they don’t want the housing market to have a large correction they will have to resurrect this market. That won’t happen.

My2Cents

[Running Bear]

Gents,

Like SD Realtor said this will only delay the inevitable. The point people aren’t talking about but what is the key problem here is the Securitization of Mortgages. The mechanism that took us to these unaffordable levels was a massive boom in this market. This market is now dead and it isn’t coming back anytime soon. Prices will come down regardless of whether they freeze rates or foreclosures. Now that we are back to much tighter lending standards prices will come down. It is that simple. All this may do is slow down the drop. Instead of the cliff jump we would be looking at in 2008 it won’t be so vertical. If they don’t want the housing market to have a large correction they will have to resurrect this market. That won’t happen.

My2Cents

[Author]

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