[rockysan99]

BSC, CFC I considered both

But CFC (Countrywide Finance) has been in a sideways range for a very long time and to me is too obvious here. Still, if one were to play it on the downside I could certainly make a case for it. Bear Stearns looks like it is ripe for a major whacking although it has already dropped from $165 to $150 it certainly has more room to fall. I’ll tell you one that I really like that no one has considered. Over the last 3 years it has skyrocketed ($40 to $106) on the back of the housing explosion and while most housing related stocks have taken the obvious hit, this one is like a guillotine being raised. Check out Landamerica Financial Group (LFG). You want to short (or buy puts) at the high and this one is there. What do they do? Title insurance. Home sales are plunging so that means title insurance earning are going to be taking a hit. For the savvy, ballsy investor willing to go against the crowd, this one is a beauty. Oh it has all the earmarks of a fat money maker. If you buy yourself a put on this one, make sure to give yourself plenty of time. It has puts that go out to Jan 2009. Check it out. Another title insurer that is also ripe and sells in the $50s after a run up is First American (FAF)

[rockysan99]

AMBAC

Ambac Financial Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides financial guarantee products and other financial services to clients in the public and private sectors worldwide. It operates in two segments: Financial Guarantee and Financial Services. The Financial Guarantee segment offers financial guarantee insurance and other credit enhancement products, such as credit derivatives for public finance and structured finance obligations. It also provides financial guarantees for bond issues and other forms of debt financing. This segment sells its products in the U.S. public finance market, the U.S. structured finance and asset-backed market, and the international finance market.

[rockysan99]

AMBAC

Ambac Financial Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, provides financial guarantee products and other financial services to clients in the public and private sectors worldwide. It operates in two segments: Financial Guarantee and Financial Services. The Financial Guarantee segment offers financial guarantee insurance and other credit enhancement products, such as credit derivatives for public finance and structured finance obligations. It also provides financial guarantees for bond issues and other forms of debt financing. This segment sells its products in the U.S. public finance market, the U.S. structured finance and asset-backed market, and the international finance market.

[rockysan99]

If you want to play along with the hedge funds I recommend put options in AMBAK (ABK) or MBIA (MBI). I bought my Jan 09 100 puts in ABK recently when the stock was at $94. It has since dropped to $87 ish. Other stocks I recommend that will take hits from the housing crash are the cruise lines like RCL and CCL (discretionary income in the form of housing equity will dry up), Las Vegas Casinos (they’ll suffer greatly as Californians will have to cut back on trips to Vegas…Vegas has become very expensive in the last few years due to Californians paying the higher prices and minimum gambling limits…Las Vegas will be hurt by the housing crunch, gas and the Indian Casinos). See also Black and Decker (BKD) and Whirlpool (WHR), both near their highs and due to get whacked very soon.
The homebuilders and lender stocks are too obvious and have already been hit. Idiots will chase those now. You have to look beyond the obvious, and these are the ones.
Lastly, the automakers are getting clobbered but are too obvious. Look instead to their parts suppliers that have yet to decline. Get them while their hot and bet against them. They are going to drop and drop sharply.
Look beyond the obvious choices. The opportunity to make huge gains in put options exist on the above mentioned issues

[rockysan99]

If you want to play along with the hedge funds I recommend put options in AMBAK (ABK) or MBIA (MBI). I bought my Jan 09 100 puts in ABK recently when the stock was at $94. It has since dropped to $87 ish. Other stocks I recommend that will take hits from the housing crash are the cruise lines like RCL and CCL (discretionary income in the form of housing equity will dry up), Las Vegas Casinos (they’ll suffer greatly as Californians will have to cut back on trips to Vegas…Vegas has become very expensive in the last few years due to Californians paying the higher prices and minimum gambling limits…Las Vegas will be hurt by the housing crunch, gas and the Indian Casinos). See also Black and Decker (BKD) and Whirlpool (WHR), both near their highs and due to get whacked very soon.
The homebuilders and lender stocks are too obvious and have already been hit. Idiots will chase those now. You have to look beyond the obvious, and these are the ones.
Lastly, the automakers are getting clobbered but are too obvious. Look instead to their parts suppliers that have yet to decline. Get them while their hot and bet against them. They are going to drop and drop sharply.
Look beyond the obvious choices. The opportunity to make huge gains in put options exist on the above mentioned issues

[rockysan99]

I forgot to mention we are now renting in Anaheim Hills.

[rockysan99]

I forgot to mention we are now renting in Anaheim Hills.

[rockysan99]

Canadian Royalty Trusts to the rescue

We sold in Sept 05 and moved into Candadiam Royalty Trusts just last November to receive montly stipends. We are short AMBAC (ABK) at 95, Royal Caribbean (RCL)at 42.50 via long term puts to avoid having to pay the dividend. We see great weakness in both issues due to the housing market corrosion and it’s spilling over into the economy. We are also taking a hard look at shorting Whirlpool at 111. It is at or near it’s high like the other two and we see great risk to the downside in today’s climate.

[rockysan99]

Canadian Royalty Trusts to the rescue

We sold in Sept 05 and moved into Candadiam Royalty Trusts just last November to receive montly stipends. We are short AMBAC (ABK) at 95, Royal Caribbean (RCL)at 42.50 via long term puts to avoid having to pay the dividend. We see great weakness in both issues due to the housing market corrosion and it’s spilling over into the economy. We are also taking a hard look at shorting Whirlpool at 111. It is at or near it’s high like the other two and we see great risk to the downside in today’s climate.

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