For those on the sidelines after selling….

[Anonymous]

We bought a new house in Temecula in 2002 intending to stay for a good long while. After 18 months of watching the sales flyers show the new releases going up and up and up, we said “This is nuts.” We got a fully-paid relocation offer so we sold in the middle of 2004 (about $120k profit in 18 months).

We stayed out of the market for a year or so and then moved to Austin and purchased in a hot area. We don’t owe a penny to anyone and are keeping a close eye on California real estate. If and when prices come down to some reasonable level like 2001-2002 pricing, we may just buy back in. Austin is great, but it’s not home.

[Anonymous]

We bought a new house in Temecula in 2002 intending to stay for a good long while. After 18 months of watching the sales flyers show the new releases going up and up and up, we said “This is nuts.” We got a fully-paid relocation offer so we sold in the middle of 2004 (about $120k profit in 18 months).

We stayed out of the market for a year or so and then moved to Austin and purchased in a hot area. We don’t owe a penny to anyone and are keeping a close eye on California real estate. If and when prices come down to some reasonable level like 2001-2002 pricing, we may just buy back in. Austin is great, but it’s not home.

[AKguy]

Mendenhall Glacier is correct–you can see if from our front porch. Now if I can figure out how to post a photo…[img_assist|nid=3627|title=Max walking to the bus stop|desc=…dawn a couple of months ago.|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=311]

[AKguy]

Mendenhall Glacier is correct–you can see if from our front porch. Now if I can figure out how to post a photo…[img_assist|nid=3627|title=Max walking to the bus stop|desc=…dawn a couple of months ago.|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=311]

[AKguy]

I know how you feel. Austin is supposed to be the place to be if you are in Texas–one of the guys who used to work for me in Dublin, CA, retired to Austin, but that was going home for him.

[AKguy]

I know how you feel. Austin is supposed to be the place to be if you are in Texas–one of the guys who used to work for me in Dublin, CA, retired to Austin, but that was going home for him.

[betting on fall]

I’m a newer member here and think this might be a good place to tell a short version of my story. (yes, below is a short version)
We just sold our house bought in 2002. Let’s just say that we bought because it was the only house in our favorite neighborhood that was for sale and in our price range at the time. A few years later, we decided it just was not the right house to spend the rest of our lives in. Rather than invest more into it, we decided to put it up for sale and leave that for the next owner.

Our sale price was about 7-8% ($50,000) less than I know we could have gotten at the peak. But one nearby sold at $50,000 less than list price a few weeks before we got our offer. So I do think the price we got was fair for today, but it does hurt to have “lost” $50,000.

We were willing to immediately buy a new house costing somewhat more than our sale price. But it seems that no one else realizes that they need to mark their house down around 10% from peak prices. (we want to stay in the same central San Diego area, so we don’t have the same number of quality for sale choices as, say, someone in Otay Ranch or San Elijo.)

So we just signed a lease on a house near the one we are selling- rent equal to our old mortgage payment. I figure we will just relax there, and bet on the fall of the market. I do want to buy again soon because I value the stability (have two small kids).

Our still-substantial profits will go into to savings account getting 5+% interest. We already have our eye on a few places we like in our preferred area, but are waiting for them to face reality and lower the price. I am sure our non-contingent, half cash offer will be very attractive to a desperate seller soon.
Of course, now I am debating if I should even bother looking for a “bargain” this year, and should just wait to 2008-2009 when things really crash. I know we are on the downslope, but I’m more and more sure that slope is going to be a long one. Thus the name “betting on fall”

[betting on fall]

I’m a newer member here and think this might be a good place to tell a short version of my story. (yes, below is a short version)
We just sold our house bought in 2002. Let’s just say that we bought because it was the only house in our favorite neighborhood that was for sale and in our price range at the time. A few years later, we decided it just was not the right house to spend the rest of our lives in. Rather than invest more into it, we decided to put it up for sale and leave that for the next owner.

Our sale price was about 7-8% ($50,000) less than I know we could have gotten at the peak. But one nearby sold at $50,000 less than list price a few weeks before we got our offer. So I do think the price we got was fair for today, but it does hurt to have “lost” $50,000.

We were willing to immediately buy a new house costing somewhat more than our sale price. But it seems that no one else realizes that they need to mark their house down around 10% from peak prices. (we want to stay in the same central San Diego area, so we don’t have the same number of quality for sale choices as, say, someone in Otay Ranch or San Elijo.)

So we just signed a lease on a house near the one we are selling- rent equal to our old mortgage payment. I figure we will just relax there, and bet on the fall of the market. I do want to buy again soon because I value the stability (have two small kids).

Our still-substantial profits will go into to savings account getting 5+% interest. We already have our eye on a few places we like in our preferred area, but are waiting for them to face reality and lower the price. I am sure our non-contingent, half cash offer will be very attractive to a desperate seller soon.
Of course, now I am debating if I should even bother looking for a “bargain” this year, and should just wait to 2008-2009 when things really crash. I know we are on the downslope, but I’m more and more sure that slope is going to be a long one. Thus the name “betting on fall”

[Anonymous]

We sold in summer of 2004, and have been renting since then. Initially, our motivation to sell was to move to a better neighborhood (we were in an area in East San Diego that was worsening quickly). However, as I started researching the SD housing market, I felt that prices were not going to go up much more, and at the time, inventory was only about 2,800 in all of San Diego. We did not want to get into bidding wars against other buyers, having to overbid on a home that we may not have even cared for that much (overbidding was the norm at that time). So we decided to wait to see what would happen.

We’re still waiting, and feel vindicated that the market has done pretty much what we expected it would. We’re happy where we’re at, and are patient. When home prices make sense fundamentally, we will buy. It was not easy at the time when we sold to make the decision to rent. You would not believe how many people told us how stupid we were to do so, that we would be priced out of the market, and would never be able to get in again.

Meanwhile, we have been earning over 5% on the equity we cashed out. Homes in our old neighborhood are selling 15% to 20% less now. In fact, a home that sold in October of 2005 for $390,000 was recently on the market for several months at $319,000 before becoming inactive a couple of weeks ago (I’m assuming it sold, but I’m not sure). If we would have stayed in our old neighborhood, I’m guessing we would have about $90,000 less equity now. Instead, our liberated equity has earned close to $45,000 in the last 3 years.

We will continue to wait, I see things getting worse as the big wave of resets begins to increase, as more people and banks become very motivated sellers, competing with each other to sell their homes quickly, as more and more inventory comes onto the market. Add in continuing tightening of lending standards and you have a recipe for steep price drops.

[Anonymous]

We sold in summer of 2004, and have been renting since then. Initially, our motivation to sell was to move to a better neighborhood (we were in an area in East San Diego that was worsening quickly). However, as I started researching the SD housing market, I felt that prices were not going to go up much more, and at the time, inventory was only about 2,800 in all of San Diego. We did not want to get into bidding wars against other buyers, having to overbid on a home that we may not have even cared for that much (overbidding was the norm at that time). So we decided to wait to see what would happen.

We’re still waiting, and feel vindicated that the market has done pretty much what we expected it would. We’re happy where we’re at, and are patient. When home prices make sense fundamentally, we will buy. It was not easy at the time when we sold to make the decision to rent. You would not believe how many people told us how stupid we were to do so, that we would be priced out of the market, and would never be able to get in again.

Meanwhile, we have been earning over 5% on the equity we cashed out. Homes in our old neighborhood are selling 15% to 20% less now. In fact, a home that sold in October of 2005 for $390,000 was recently on the market for several months at $319,000 before becoming inactive a couple of weeks ago (I’m assuming it sold, but I’m not sure). If we would have stayed in our old neighborhood, I’m guessing we would have about $90,000 less equity now. Instead, our liberated equity has earned close to $45,000 in the last 3 years.

We will continue to wait, I see things getting worse as the big wave of resets begins to increase, as more people and banks become very motivated sellers, competing with each other to sell their homes quickly, as more and more inventory comes onto the market. Add in continuing tightening of lending standards and you have a recipe for steep price drops.

[eccen in esc]

eccen in esc
I bought at the peak in 2005. A few months later I got a flyer in the mail describing the upcoming RE market crash/bubble. Long story short, I sold a year later for $17k more than I paid but still lost a lot of money. Now I am renting but can’t stand renting and will probably buy in a different area(of San Diego) even though I know the timing is bad. But I think for me, my own home is more important than money or wise investments. I have been reading Pigg. for several months. Please try to talk me out of buying. Does anyone have any prediction of Valley Center RE pricewise now versus September? Thanks

[eccen in esc]

eccen in esc
I bought at the peak in 2005. A few months later I got a flyer in the mail describing the upcoming RE market crash/bubble. Long story short, I sold a year later for $17k more than I paid but still lost a lot of money. Now I am renting but can’t stand renting and will probably buy in a different area(of San Diego) even though I know the timing is bad. But I think for me, my own home is more important than money or wise investments. I have been reading Pigg. for several months. Please try to talk me out of buying. Does anyone have any prediction of Valley Center RE pricewise now versus September? Thanks

[NotCranky]

Please try to talk me out of buying.

Did you see the “weather channel” last night there is a giant meteor heading to Valley Center and it is going to crash there sometime in the “near future.” Scientist has not yet decided the definition or “near” so some home buyers are going ahead with their plans :).

Just trying ot help:
“But I think for me, my own home is more important than money or wise investments”. It doesen’t sound like you really mean this or..

1) you might not have sold in 2005
2) You wouldn’t ask for help to stay on the sidelines.

Unless you meant to say please DON’T talk me out of buying?

[NotCranky]

Please try to talk me out of buying.

Did you see the “weather channel” last night there is a giant meteor heading to Valley Center and it is going to crash there sometime in the “near future.” Scientist has not yet decided the definition or “near” so some home buyers are going ahead with their plans :).

Just trying ot help:
“But I think for me, my own home is more important than money or wise investments”. It doesen’t sound like you really mean this or..

1) you might not have sold in 2005
2) You wouldn’t ask for help to stay on the sidelines.

Unless you meant to say please DON’T talk me out of buying?

[eccen in esc]

eccen in esc

Thanks Rustico. I really did mean to say “please talk me out of buying” because I know it’s a bad time. I sold the other house because I knew I didn’t want to live there long term. I guess it is emotional for me so I am not always practical. If I go I will be trying to watch the weather and keep an eye on meteors.

[Author]

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