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Reality
ParticipantIt must be mostly folks with high incomes answering this thread (bragging?).
ParticipantYour post makes a lot of sense and the rent vs. buy calculation, above anything else, is what convinced me several years ago of the magnitude of the bubble.
For instance, if “everybody wants to live here”, rents would reflect that. They don’t.
If “there’s a housing shortage” were true, rents would reflect that. They don’t.
Why anyone would be buying today is beyond me.
ParticipantYour post makes a lot of sense and the rent vs. buy calculation, above anything else, is what convinced me several years ago of the magnitude of the bubble.
For instance, if “everybody wants to live here”, rents would reflect that. They don’t.
If “there’s a housing shortage” were true, rents would reflect that. They don’t.
Why anyone would be buying today is beyond me.
July 22, 2007 at 5:06 PM in reply to: NEED your input, About to buy a new Pienza home in 4S Ranch #67027ParticipantGiven the sheer number of NODs and foreclosures, I would think waiting beyond even winter is a good idea. Factor in the number of upcoming resets in early to mid-2008 and it looks to get far, far worse.
Or am I missing something here?
Yes. Typical scenario:
Wife wants a place to nest. She doesn’t care what a new house costs. Husband probably is the main breadwinner and may even understand that buying real estate in this market at this time is a poor idea. However, husband’s ba**s are in wife’s purse.
July 22, 2007 at 5:06 PM in reply to: NEED your input, About to buy a new Pienza home in 4S Ranch #67092ParticipantGiven the sheer number of NODs and foreclosures, I would think waiting beyond even winter is a good idea. Factor in the number of upcoming resets in early to mid-2008 and it looks to get far, far worse.
Or am I missing something here?
Yes. Typical scenario:
Wife wants a place to nest. She doesn’t care what a new house costs. Husband probably is the main breadwinner and may even understand that buying real estate in this market at this time is a poor idea. However, husband’s ba**s are in wife’s purse.
ParticipantYou don’t need a recession to have a declining housing market. In the 90’s, the recession lasted from late ’91 to mid ’92, and yet housing in CA declined for another 4 years.
I didn’t mean a recession was needed. Some seem to think though that a housing correction will cause a recession. I’m all for the housing correction (not that it matters what I want, it’s coming anyway), and if a recession results so be it. Recessions happen every decade or so anyway.
ParticipantYou don’t need a recession to have a declining housing market. In the 90’s, the recession lasted from late ’91 to mid ’92, and yet housing in CA declined for another 4 years.
I didn’t mean a recession was needed. Some seem to think though that a housing correction will cause a recession. I’m all for the housing correction (not that it matters what I want, it’s coming anyway), and if a recession results so be it. Recessions happen every decade or so anyway.
ParticipantI have seen more then one post with some fairly cavalier statements about the recession. Things like bring it on, and I can’t wait for it.
Statements such as these are obviously made with little thought.
SD Realtor
Recessions are inevitable. They happen from time to time whether we want them or not. I’m no fan of recessions, but in my opinion one would be a small price to pay for the much needed housing correction.
ParticipantI have seen more then one post with some fairly cavalier statements about the recession. Things like bring it on, and I can’t wait for it.
Statements such as these are obviously made with little thought.
SD Realtor
Recessions are inevitable. They happen from time to time whether we want them or not. I’m no fan of recessions, but in my opinion one would be a small price to pay for the much needed housing correction.
ParticipantCan some of you who may be long time renters, but would have liked to buy a home if the price weren’t so high, tell what keeps you in SoCal (or whichever bubble market you are presently in)?
Prices will correct here, and this is my home.
Besides, for me anyway, relocating means leaving a decent paying job. Although I’ve never tried it, I’d think finding a job in another city while still employed and living here would be a longshot. And I’d never move elsewhere without a job lined up. I know what it’s like being on the outside looking in and didn’t care for it.
ParticipantCan some of you who may be long time renters, but would have liked to buy a home if the price weren’t so high, tell what keeps you in SoCal (or whichever bubble market you are presently in)?
Prices will correct here, and this is my home.
Besides, for me anyway, relocating means leaving a decent paying job. Although I’ve never tried it, I’d think finding a job in another city while still employed and living here would be a longshot. And I’d never move elsewhere without a job lined up. I know what it’s like being on the outside looking in and didn’t care for it.
ParticipantI think it is absolutely reasonable, considering the current market dynamics, to offer a price equal to mean value before the onset of bubble. So, take 1999 or 2000 base price and add a 5% yearly inflation and make an offer if you like the house. If the seller rejects it, you can walk away completely guilt free. Alternately, look up the most recent pre-bubble sale price on zillow and add a 5% p.a. rise.
I think this strategy is absolutely a waste of time. 5% per annum inflation since the 1990-2000 time frame? That may be a reasonable price once this bubble is done deflating, but today sellers can do much better. They may be having trouble selling because they think it’s still 2005, which it isn’t. It sure isn’t 1999 plus 5% per year inflation either. Not yet.
ParticipantI think it is absolutely reasonable, considering the current market dynamics, to offer a price equal to mean value before the onset of bubble. So, take 1999 or 2000 base price and add a 5% yearly inflation and make an offer if you like the house. If the seller rejects it, you can walk away completely guilt free. Alternately, look up the most recent pre-bubble sale price on zillow and add a 5% p.a. rise.
I think this strategy is absolutely a waste of time. 5% per annum inflation since the 1990-2000 time frame? That may be a reasonable price once this bubble is done deflating, but today sellers can do much better. They may be having trouble selling because they think it’s still 2005, which it isn’t. It sure isn’t 1999 plus 5% per year inflation either. Not yet.
ParticipantYou should shop around Alex if your rent is too high.
Luckily, my rent has not increased in the 3 years I’ve been in my current apartment. If it went up a lot I’d just move.
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