[poorgradstudent]

I agree that Americans overconsume, and as a whole need to cut back and “trim the fat”. Credit card debt is almost always “bad debt” (as opposed to “good debt”, like student loans or 30-year fixed mortgages). Money spent paying off credit cards is like a 15-25% annual guaranteed investment, something that even the most bullish investor probably doesn’t think they could beat.

[poorgradstudent]

Driving down Nobel drive (one of the bigger UTC streets), most of the complexes have “now leasing” signs up that attempted conversions. Also, some of the prices posted on the signs and banners look lower than they were a couple months ago.

[poorgradstudent]

What a silly, misguided article.

Flat inflation is far more stabilizing than cyclic inflation and deflation. History and the world show us that countries who undergo periods of unreasonable inflation often experience social unrest at the same time.

The argument about the decline of chastity before marriage is also incorrect. Even if you assume that such behavior is desirable, the logic is just untrue. People are not having sex any younger than they did in the past. They’re just getting married later.

I could pick apart the rest of the article, but the fact is, the author is a crumudgeon who is blaming inflation for everything he doesn’t like about society.

[poorgradstudent]

The long term average return for the S&P 500 falls somewhere around 10.4%. Adjusted for “average” inflation, you’d get something around 7% for a real return, which is the rate most sites recommend using for retirement planning.

People need to remember how long the long term is. 1 year is really really short in the stock market. Even 5 years isn’t long enough to expect averages to work out. This example is a perfect case of where you can use this sort of averaging. It’s over a long timeframe, and utilizes dollar cost averaging, which minimizes the risk of short term fluctuations.

[poorgradstudent]

You should have sold your Pfizer a while ago… their main cash cow patents expire soon and their pipeline isn’t exactly bursting with new potential blockbusters. Amgen and Novartis are much stronger plays in the industry right now (especially since Novartis is European, so it benefits if the dollar falls).

[poorgradstudent]

Wait and see.

Seriously, there’s no easy answer right now. But prices should be lower in 8 months, so re-evaluate then based on the new info.

[poorgradstudent]

I’m not sure about the rents, but I know that a lot of the failed attempts at condo conversion here in UTC are now leasing again. So at least in the apartment market, I doubt rents are going to skyrocket.

[poorgradstudent]

The effects of the Democratic controlled congress will be minimal.

Lacking enough of a majority to override vetos, and having only a small majority in the Senate, the only significant changes they will be able to create will be those with significant public support. At present, I see those as decreased military presence in Iraq, increased minimum wage, and increased scrutiny of Big Pharma.

Generally, divided governments are good for the economy. Almost perversely they encourage fiscal responsibility, as both tax cuts and spending increases will be limited. Decreased military spending will help the economy, a lot. I don’t believe in trickle down economics, nor do I believe in trickle up. A minimum wage increase will have a small effect in redistributing wealth from the very richest americans to the very poorest. In states like California and others, the minimum or market minimum wage are higher than any potential increase.

As for housing, there may be less scrutiny on Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae and their lenient lending policies. This may lead to more of a slow release than popping of the housing bubble. Or, it could artificially prop it up, leading to a sudden collapse. Or, market forces may just overwhelm any small efforts.

In short, don’t expect major changes in the next two years, as Bush still has veto power, and moderate Democrats like Casey and Lieberman in the Senate would have to be willing to support any legislation even to get it on Bush’s desk.

[poorgradstudent]

It’s not “Kevin F”, it’s K-Fed. Sheesh, you’re dating yourself there, JES. 🙂

[poorgradstudent]

I wonder if more white people will favor affirmative action as Asians take more and more college spots?

Asians became the largest ethnic group at UCSD in 2002. They’re within 1% of whites across the UC.

For better or for worse, the end of Affirmative Action in college admissions took spots away from blacks and latinos and gave them to asians.

The UC system uses standardized test scores more than a lot of colleges and universities do. Even as someone who had great SATs and a high high school GPA, I don’t think that should be the whole story in college admissions.

The irony is that as white men’s representation in college continues to shrink (which, if current trends hold, will happen), you may start hearing a lot more cries for proportional representation.

[poorgradstudent]

Once I “got it”, I got a good chuckle out of the joke in the original post.

Interestingly, Wall street seems very excited about the prospect of a divided government. For good reason, as it lowers the risk that some weird legislation will come out of left or right field and rock the market.

The Democrats don’t have a consensus on what should be done now in Iraq. To my knowledge there are at least 3 separate plans being promoted. All have potential along wit potential problems, but all sound better than “Stay the Course”.

[poorgradstudent]

I’m not a fan of California’s proposition system. They seem to take power away from elected officials, and put even more of it in special interest groups who are willing to throw a lot of money at special laws they write.

Still, I’m voting yes on 87. I think worst case it will help California’s budget issues, at the expense of Oil Company profits, which have been insane the past couple of years.

I actually really like Angelides, I heard a radio interview with him and liked everything he said. I dislike Arnold, and will forever associate him with that ridiculous debacle that was the recall election. I feel like I’d be a better governor than Arnold, and that really concerns me. I’m extremely pro-environment and pro-education, which Arnold is not.

[poorgradstudent]

The coming recession seems closer to me now than it did a month ago. (And more than just a month closer, hahaha) It’s a shame that it happens when wages FINALLY start to gain some ground on profits.

I still feel Roubini is overly bearish, but it’s almost as if he magnifies his take to try to contrast the media at large and public perception, which is overly bullish.

Interestingly, I don’t think this recession will hurt the average American as much as it does corporate profits, which have been sky high for the past 3-4 years. Unemployment is the big risk.

[poorgradstudent]

Well, if the Democrats win one of the chambers, they will take away Bush’s rubber stamp.

Still, I agree that even if the Dems win both chambers with small margins, you won’t see huge, sweeping changes. I do think it would expidite the end of the Iraq war somewhat, but the Executive Branch has a lot of power over how wars are waged.

Immigration is an issue I feel that shouldn’t be partisan. I’m truly confused why the parties can’t work together on it and figure out real solutions everyone can agree on, at least to some degree.

[poorgradstudent]

I’ve never heard of this Hitchens fellow before. I felt he was somewhat rude in the way he interrupted the host. I totally agreed that Bush’s comment about Cheney was just odd… does he even have the authority to change the VP?

Hitchens seems like a rather bitter, angry man. Still, he makes some good points. Especially about Kerry… Unlike the president, Kerry served in the military. Doesn’t really make sense that he would insult those who serve, i.e. HIMSELF.

It’s time for this administration to admit that they underestimated how difficult the Iraq invasion and establishing a stable democracy would be. It’s time to admit they made mistakes, and start

[Author]

Posts