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[quote=bibsoconner]Our one and only house in Pt. Loma is paid off (about 2.3 million according to Redfin/Zillow). We had this idea of moving to St. Thomas, USVI. My wife has family there. She’d continue with her existing job. I’d teach college, high school, or just be a bartender or bus boy. Those last two jobs do not scare me and actually sound sort of appealing right now. I’m somewhat in favor of selling the house. Renting it out from a distance could be a pain.[/quote]
[quote=The-Shoveler]My crystal ball seems to have a defect (or two).
Still working on getting my quantum eraser working though.Not really a big Climate change believer (or denier) but If I was living too close to sea level I would always be watching the Antarctic glaciers in case I needed to get to higher ground LOL.
The Above said, I think I would always want to own something on the west coast, I think a better question is where you think homes will be in 10 years (time goes by incredibly fast).[/quote]
IMHO a paid off home in SD is akin to having a goose that lays golden eggs,…
as an example walking over to my local coffee shop this morning actually noticed in the neighborhood a small 3 bedroom 2 bath home listed for a monthly 4k rent
basically as I see things keep the home and rent it out,… even if it might be a sorta pain in the ass
actually stopped by piggington myself to ask about if anyone here has experience renting out housing for short term traveling nurses
basically have a studio that I set aside for catholic school teachers (and give them a big break on rent to encourage them to stick around),…anyway am having a tenant move out so until I am able to get another catholic school teacher I thought I’d try short term housing,… any opinions???
FWIW WRT man made climate change,… glaciers in the polar region melt pretty slowly in human terms BUT what is happen is akin to a blink of an eye in geological time,… consider what just happened in the year 2021, scientists observed the first rainfall on top of a mountain of ice in the arctic circle
AND during xmas 2021 there was a record heat wave in alaska,..
meanwhile man made climate change skeptics/deniers say the weather has always changed and CO2 along w/ other greenhouse gasses in the atmosphere is nothing to worry about even though the trend is ever increasing amounts (FYI used an image invoking “Russian roulette” because it is simpler to understand than showing all the math)
looking at the existing trends (if no corrective action is taken) here is a simple perspective of what is going to happen (i.e. we’re heading for a climate something akin to the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum)
the reason I bring up the topic of looking at RE prices per sq foot is because I’m trying to get a sense of trends (in the SD area)
looking at the bigger picture (e.g. out side the SD area over “time”),… median RE prices seem like chump change
[quote=gzz]
The decline in spending on travel, entertainment, and the like is temporary, so the “nothing else to spend it on” effect has already diminished and will disappear entirely.
I disagree that we’ll ever get back to pre-COVID levels on a lot of these issues.
[/quote][quote=phaster][quote=Rich Toscano]Totally, if we took out the bubble, current valuations would dwarf prior peaks.
But I’m not sure that chart alone can prove it’s a bubble. For one thing, I could see there being a long term uptrend in the “fair” or sustainable valuation (due to supply constraints, globalization of the housing markets, or what have you).
But a much bigger thing is the interest rate factor. Given that people finance their purchases with fixed rate mortgages, and that rates are super low, it could be rational in some cases to buy at these prices. (See the monthly payment graph). And if it’s rational to buy, at least sometimes, can it truly be a bubble?
My take is: it’s expensive, and if rates go up, it will likely prove to have been unsustainably expensive. But that’s not the same as a speculative bubble, which in my view requires a certain level of behavioral craziness we aren’t seeing, and also (in my view) implies an inevitable price crash.
Thoughts?
Just for giggles here is your requested graph. It doesn’t change the median; it would change the historical average but I don’t chart that. However, it changes the historical standard deviation quite a bit, so taking away the prior bubble would put us comfortably above Grantham’s “2 sigma” rule of thumb for bubble-spotting. For what that’s worth…
[/quote]what we are seeing w/ local RE prices “rising” makes sense IMHO because I am thinking about the dollar being the global reserve currency
IOW since the dollar is the global reserve currency, this means the world needs dollars to settle accounts,… so the amount of “credit” dollars out there is ever growing,… when there are more “credit” dollars out there chasing a limited supply of RE (as in the case here in San Diego) the price of RE goes up
BUT we have to consider the idea that all good things come to an end (i.e. some day the dollar will no longer be the global reserve currency)
https://www.bis.org/publ/work684.pdf
I’ve also been I’ve been wondering about is RE prices during the 1930’s Great Depression,… where we see RE prices as expected during the roaring 1920’s went up and during the depression, prices of RE went down
https://www.hbs.edu/ris/Publication%20Files/Anna_tom_59f6af5f-72f2-4a72-9ffa-c604d236cc98.pdf
the reason I bring the idea up of RE prices during the 1930’s Great Recession is because I’m pretty sure if the dollar was not the global reserve currency,… prices of local San Diego RE (as well as RE in other parts of the USA) would not be as high as they are now[/quote]
wondering what other piggs think the new normal for the next decade or so will be for: interest rates, RE prices, what will be trends/fads for those on the “low” and “high” end of the income scale, etc.
