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January 13, 2019 at 7:15 PM in reply to: San Diego homeless, mercifully, do not live very long #811582
phaster
Participantif “affordability” is defined as the typical household looking to spend no more than 30 percent of its income on housing (in the 35 largest metro areas in the U.S.A.) then zillow has an interesting info-graph showing “affordability” vs “interest rates”

NOTE for the info-graph,… the current average 30 year fixed mortgage rate for the U.S. was 4.63 percent
no surprise that metro areas w/ in CA are the least “affordable” so income property seems to be the least risky investment as long as the overall economy is positive and the CA region remains having a favorable public impression BUT given various storm clouds on the horizon think it prudent to have a hedge strategy AND a rainy day cash reserve to ride out an inevitable financial storm
phaster
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=phaster][quote=FlyerInHi][quote=The-Shoveler]
3D printing and AI will overcome any manufacturing capacity advantage china has over USA in the next 20 years.
[/quote]I don’t know about the future. But 3D is shit plastic. [/quote]
FWIW 3D will also be “metals” and its happening now,… GE Will Laser Print Turboprop Engines (for new cessna certification 2020??)
[/quote]
Very cool. Do you think GE shares are undervalued?[/quote]
GE has interesting technology in aerospace and other areas,… unfortunately it comes w/ baggage,… too much emphasis on financial engineering to boost stock prices (in the past) along w/ ignoring unsecured senior debt, a giant liability for long term care insurance, pensions, etc. (i.e. off balance sheet stuff)
so to answer your question about GE being “undervalued???” looking at the overall investor climate, personally have been watching it as a target but unwilling to pull the trigger because I’m keeping my powder dry in the current turbulence
my specific thinking WRT GE aviation, is in an economic downturn travel is put on the back burner, and looking back to the 2007/08 period noticed used aviation business assets flooded the market,… AND so can’t yet justify buying GE (for its aviation products because the “new” turboprop engine is still in the FAA testing phase as far as I can tell), but as I read the tea leaves its still pretty early in the growth game as to where “printed” manufacturing is going to go
FYI the WSJ just wrote an article about GE
[quote]
GE Powered the American Century—Then It Burned Out…General Electric Co. helped invent the world as we know it: wired up, plugged in and switched on. Born of Thomas Alva Edison’s ingenuity and John Pierpont Morgan’s audacity, GE built the dynamos that generated the electricity, the wires that carried it and the lightbulbs that burned it.
To keep the power and profits flowing day and night, GE connected neighborhoods with streetcars and cities with locomotives. It soon filled kitchens with ovens and toasters, living rooms with radios and TVs, bathrooms with curling irons and toothbrushes, and laundry rooms with washers and dryers.
The modern GE was built by Jack Welch, the youngest CEO and chairman in company history when he took over in 1981.
… “Fix it, close it or sell it’’ was a favorite slogan. Welch wanted to get out of any businesses where GE wasn’t a market leader.
…The catalyst for GE’s success during Welch’s reign was that it worked more like a collection of businesses under the protection of a giant bank. As the financial sector came to drive more of the U.S. economy, GE Capital, the company’s finance arm, powered more of the company’s growth.
…GE Capital sucked in debt and spat out money. Created in the first half of the last century to help people buy home appliances, it now financed fast-food franchises, power plants and suburban McMansions, and leased out railroad tank cars, office buildings and airliners.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ge-powered-the-american-centurythen-it-burned-out-11544796010
[/quote]phaster
ParticipantFWIW as I see things,… given “demand” > “supply”
seems politicians and the bureaucracy are encouraging more taxes which helps the affordability issue (for politicians and the bureaucracy) but ordinary people out of the loop (i.e. individuals not employed by the “state” or “local” municipality) are being asked to pay the cleanup bill caused mismanagement by politicians and the bureaucracy
basically CA has a current problem of insolvency and “moral” bankruptcy, which inevitability is going to lead to CA going “financially” bankrupt
phaster
Participantthis article caught my eye
[quote]
California’s Pension Fund Says No to Tobacco Stocks but Yes to Marijuana Stocks…The California Public Employees’ Retirement System, the biggest pension fund in the U.S., won’t invest in tobacco companies. But apparently it doesn’t have an issue with marijuana producers.
The fund’s third-quarter filing of holdings to the Securities and Exchange Commission shows that it has a small position in Tilray stock (TLRY). As of Sept. 30, the pension fund, commonly known as Calpers, owned 1,617 shares of the Canadian maker of cannabis for medical and recreational adult use.
…In 2000, Calpers sold its positions in tobacco stocks and imposed a limited ban on investing in tobacco-related companies. Recently, the fund estimated that it missed out on $3 billion in returns through 2014 because of that decision. That’s money Calpers could have used: As of last year, it had a $138.5 billion unfunded liability.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/calpers-buys-marijuana-stock-tilray-51544551613
[/quote]any opinion(s) about politicians and the bureaucracy encourage toking up (w/ legal pot) to make taxpayers/voters less aware of systemic corruption/mismanagement?!
phaster
Participant[quote=FlyerInHi][quote=The-Shoveler]
3D printing and AI will overcome any manufacturing capacity advantage china has over USA in the next 20 years.
[/quote]I don’t know about the future. But 3D is shit plastic. [/quote]
FWIW 3D will also be “metals” and its happening now,… GE Will Laser Print Turboprop Engines (for new cessna certification 2020??)
December 1, 2018 at 7:00 AM in reply to: OT: Public Employee Unions Attack the City of San Diego/Prop B #811250phaster
ParticipantDifferent Day Same $hit
[quote]
Audit: city omits $52M from compensation reportsThe city of San Diego failed to report to state officials some $52 million in employee pension contributions last year, according to an audit released last week.
The 21-page audit report,…
https://www.sandiego.gov/sites/default/files/19-010_compensation_reports.pdf
says the city omits critical information in each report: the contribution toward each employee’s pension, which is estimated at about $7,900 for each pension-eligible worker.
…According to auditors, not including the information has its consequences. First, the city is not fully complying with state reporting standards and understating employee compensation obscures public transparency.
https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/watchdog/sd-me-pension-audit-20181120-story.html
[/quote]PS WRT SDCERS/Prop B here’s an apropo piece of advice,…
[quote=bearishgurl]
You SD residents would do well to log all this info in the back of your brain and bring it out when needed as these idiots (who somehow believe they are “movers and shakers” in SD) will likely come up with more harebrained schemes for SD taxpayers to fund.
[/quote]phaster
Participant[quote=carlsbadworker]What signs?[/quote]
November 16, 2018 at 8:17 AM in reply to: OT: Public Employee Unions Attack the City of San Diego/Prop B #811211phaster
Participantlet’s recap,… PUBLIC PENSION DEBT GROWING!
http://www.TinyURL.com/InvestorWarning
SDCERS’ Board of Administration (Einsteins of portfolio management),… let’s add DEBT to the EXISTING DEBT
[quote=SDCERS Board]
SDCERS Board Approves 13th Check and Corbett Benefits for 2018At its November 9, 2018 meeting, the SDCERS’ Board of Administration approved the payment of the “13th Check” supplemental benefit and the Corbett settlement benefit for eligible retirees. Eligible retirees will receive the payment as part of their November 2018 monthly retirement benefit.
The “13th Check” and Corbett settlement benefits are paid in years when the realized investment earnings of the fund are sufficient to pay them.
https://www.sdcers.org/News.aspx?tagname=13th+Check+and+Corbett&groupid=9
[/quote]
phaster
Participant[quote]
Why school districts must focus on financial plansOnly one of 42 public school districts in San Diego County enjoys a positive balance sheet, Spencer Valley Elementary in Santa Ysibel. The balance sheets of the other 41 districts are dipped in red ink, some substantially.
The scoring comes from my recent report, “Financial Soundness Rankings for California’s Public School Districts, Colleges & Universities.” It reviewed the financial soundness of all 944 California public school districts.
Q. Why school districts must focus on financial plans
A. To prevent,…phaster
Participant[quote]
Senator Predicts Financial Crisis In San Diego Co. Public SchoolsSAN DIEGO COUNTY, CA — California State Sen. John Moorlach may well be giving an encore performance of his role as the canary in the coal mine preceding Orange County’s bankruptcy almost a quarter-century ago when he correctly predicted financial disaster while a candidate for county treasurer-tax collector.
This time Moorlach, a certified public accountant who represents Orange County’s 37th District and serves on the Senate Budget & Fiscal Review Committee and its education subcommittee, isn’t concerned about county government. What bothers him now are the brewing money problems facing hundreds of school districts across California – including in San Diego County – experiencing what he sees as a growing deterioration of their financial stability.
In a report issued in October 2018, summarizing an analysis of the most recent financial statements issued by 944 K-12 school districts, Moorlach found more than 85 percent reported deficits on their general fund balance sheets, something he says indicates that many of these districts “could soon reach a tipping point into insolvency and receivership.”
Moorlach’s conclusion: “It’s not a pretty picture and it’s likely to get worse.”
In San Diego County, all 17 school districts operating in Patch communities reported deficits ranging from $14 million to $1.5 billion.
this local back page news article reflects the problematic trend of stress building up w/ in the system, or said another way,… America is in the midst of a pension crisis which few are willing to acknowledge
November 4, 2018 at 7:49 AM in reply to: OT: Public Employee Unions Attack the City of San Diego/Prop B #811146phaster
Participant[quote=bearishgurl]Uhh, phaster?? You’ve been straying off the subject here, as usual. This thread is about SDCERS/Prop B.
[/quote][quote=bearishgurl]You’ve got Jerry Sanders and his “sidekick” Carl DeMaio to thank for this mess as well as the SDTPA and the Lincoln Club (who acted as “straw” plaintiffs for City) and their ilk.
You SD residents would do well to log all this info in the back of your brain and bring it out when needed as these idiots (who somehow believe they are “movers and shakers” in SD) will likely come up with more harebrained schemes for SD taxpayers to fund.[/quote]
sigh DDSS,…
(bearishgurl) since you have taken the blue pill – its apparent you believe whatever you want to believe!
for all other(s) who dared take the red pill (and consider the BIG PICTURE like RE investors on this forum), the BOTTOM LINE is,… as long as the “surplus earnings” (aka 13th payment) is siphoned off every holiday season for Gubment-Pensioner(s) (a term bearishgurl used to described herself) INSTEAD OF being used to maintain the pension system designed target return rate, the SD pension system as currently structured/operated AND using nothing more than “honest” common sense and middle school math tells us, that the un-funded DEBT issue will basically ALWAYS grow!
[quote]
Supplemental “13th Check” benefitThe supplemental “13th Check” benefit is paid from trust fund assets to eligible retirees in years when the qualification formula specified in the Municipal Code is satisfied. When qualified, SDCERS will calculate and pay the 13th Check to all eligible retirees annually in November…
http://www.doughroller.net/investing/power-of-compounding-interest/
hence the PROP B debacle in truth is symptomatic of DISHONEST and DUMB money management (i.e. politicians, public employee unions and SDCERS ignoring a middle school math concept from the onset, AND continuing to do so!)
http://www.TinyURL.com/InvestorWarning
BTW since you appear to have resurfaced for election season,… after a long absence,…
https://www.piggington.com/ot_predictions_2016_presidential_election?page=21#comment-273514
not to change the subject off of the idiotic mismanagement of SDCERS/Prop B but have to ask is Trump as POTUS everything ya hoped for?
[quote=Mark 13:22 rsv]
For false messiahs and false prophets will appear and perform signs and wonders to deceive, if possible, even the elect.
[/quote]phaster
ParticipantIMHO a separate campus could benefit the san diego area IF it were setup to emphasize sciences and teaching, IOW consider how the buildings at MIT are set up,… basically there are numbered according to an order of importance with math being numbered one, physics two,… and if I recall economics in the 200’s range, way down the line
we have a problem in that 90+% of teachers and politicians having no fucking clue about critical thinking,… hence GIGO (garbage in garbage out) in the system,… and we are where we are
so if I were king I’d set up a brand new research/teaching college on the stadium site and leave politics and social studies on the old campus, metaphorically this would put in the pipe line individuals who have a good grounding in understand math and science and an ability of passing on the mindset to future generations (i.e. “teachers”),… as it stands much of higher education seems is geared toward teaching pride of different cultures,… so we have white guys pissed off at blacks and other guys of color (and vise versa)
October 28, 2018 at 5:34 PM in reply to: OT: Public Employee Unions Attack the City of San Diego/Prop B #811127phaster
Participant[quote]
America is in the midst of a pension crisis: Around half of all states haven’t saved nearly enough money to pay for the benefits they’ve promised to government workers — and the total shortage adds up to trillions of dollars.
Who is responsible — and what is at stake for the country’s teachers, police, firefighters and other public employees?
Those questions are at the heart of The Pension Gamble, a new FRONTLINE investigation that comes to PBS tonight.
In the documentary, producers Marcela Gaviria and Nick Verbitsky and correspondent Martin Smith trace how state governments have withheld pension contributions to cover shortfalls, and waged risky bets on Wall Street.
“This is a story about having your retirement, that you thought was secure, go south — and it’s a story that impacts millions of Americans,” says Smith, who with Gaviria previously investigated another element of retirement in America, the 401(k) industry, in 2013’s The Retirement Gamble.
Now, Smith goes inside the volatile fight over pensions playing out in Kentucky, a state whose once-flush pension system for its police, firefighters, teachers and other public workers is now among the worst-funded in the nation.
It’s a fight with broader consequences for public employees everywhere — and it’s a documentary you won’t want to miss.
The Pension Gamble premieres tonight at 10 p.m. EST/9 p.m. CST on PBS stations (check your local listings) and online at pbs.org/frontline.
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/frontline/film/the-pension-gamble/?utm_source=newsletter
[/quote]October 6, 2018 at 8:41 AM in reply to: OT: Public Employee Unions Attack the City of San Diego/Prop B #810982phaster
Participant[quote=sandiegouniontribune.com]
San Diego spending $100K for estimate of how costly pension ruling could behttp://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politics/sd-me-pension-crisis-20181003-story.html
[/quote]other than the headline, seems the reader responses were more informative than the UT news paper article
[quote=UT readers]
…City of San Diego employees {except for hourly employees} have not been in Social Security since September, 1981.…SD City employees have been out of Social Security since 9/81 and that was done on a promise of lifetime medical care for retirees and a pension better than SS.
…The majority of tax increases in California over the past few years (and those proposed on the ballots all up and down the state now) have been to fund pensions. The politicians, being the devious types that they are, just don’t use pensions as the rationale, they say things like “public safety,” “education,” and “infrastructure.”
…The difference between a 401k and a pension is that with a 401k plan the retiree receives the money that has been placed in their own account which grows based upon the investment returns. They own the account and can transfer it to their next employer.
A city pension plan provides a defined benefit but that is not guaranteed. As the judge ruled in the Stockton bankruptcy a pension can be impaired in bankruptcy.
The risk of both pensions and 401k’s is that they do not make their assumed rate of investment return. Unfortunately, with a pension the risk falls on taxpayers because of the rules pensions operate under.
So there is plenty of risk to go around, especially for plans that are grossly underfunded.
…The longer the City delays the more it will cost to meet the Court’s requirement.
…Once again, the UT fails to provide basic information. Who is the consultant?
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